DH $52 Division Draft Analysis / League Prediction Topic

man I was going through a lot of **** at that time, too, so I wasn't the easiest to get along with.  I also alienated a couple of old WIS buddies during that period, so I'm to blame as well.  The important thing is that we're both man enough to get over dumb **** & recognize each other's contributions.  I appreciate that I was given that opportunity.
5/26/2013 9:08 PM
Thanks ash, glad it's all behind us. I also appreciate that you let the stupid things that I said go and I'm very glad we are both man enough to forget the past and make this a more enjoyable environment for all, if gin could only see us now, hope he rejoins us someday.
5/26/2013 9:42 PM
For the record: Badja eval on page 3 updated prior to what I expect to be him taking me to school tonight. List of projected playoff teams, contenders, longshots and the rest is on page 1 for a quick read.
5/26/2013 10:03 PM
Oh I highly doubt that Nate.  Your squad is looking really solid.  I have to try and guard West with Nash?!!  Sim matchup has you in a landslide.
5/26/2013 10:42 PM
Posted by badja on 5/26/2013 10:42:00 PM (view original):
Oh I highly doubt that Nate.  Your squad is looking really solid.  I have to try and guard West with Nash?!!  Sim matchup has you in a landslide.
You must not have simmed it enough badja. I simmed it 120 times today and went 52-68 against you with an ave score of 127.3 to 130.2 you. I tried all kinds of different lineup combinations and it wasn't until my very last variation that I took 7 out of 10. You are getting some of my best minutes thrown at you tonight, including way more Rodman than I should even think about using. GL, should be a great one.
5/26/2013 11:16 PM
Nate this is great stuff. I would recommend waiting for additional updates this detailed until about 20 games in and then in 20 game intervals after that. There is a big home court advantage built int to the SIM. 6 out of my teams first 9 games are on the road.  I am not going to make too many judgments myself until about 20 games into the season. But I love what you did. Good work.
5/27/2013 12:00 AM
Thanks Vance, I'll plan to revisit the predictions at the 26-game mark so all teams will have had 13 home and away games, then again at the 1/2 way mark and near the stretch run, plus a playoff preview.
5/27/2013 1:16 AM
Thoroughly enjoyable evals and predictions, nate.  I think you hit the nail on the head with my team.  If they miss the playoffs it will be because of the PF/FTA equation.  98's squad, for example, is perfectly designed to cut my team to ribbons. 
5/27/2013 9:26 AM
Thanks Brad, I think your team will hang in there, and if it does not then I know you already see the areas where you can make your team better next time.
5/28/2013 2:24 AM

As you guys in the DH$52 league know I have been “lucky” enough to win two of the season’s first four games in OT. I’ve also pushed a few of my players a little beyond their average minutes because these first 10 division games are critical, and finally the WIS engine has misallocated my rotation a few times (it actually put Tyson Chandler at SF and Rodman at PF on offense for a few minutes in my game v. DH, WTF WIS? Chandler is nowhere near my SF depth-chart you morons, and why the heck would I play him at SF and the Worm at PF at the same time?) So those factors have put me in a 14-16 minute hole with a number of my starters, and in six short games I’ll be staring down a serious fatigue hit if I don’t make a series of adjustments. We are talking about having up to six of my guys under a 95% fatigue level if I continue to play them their normal minutes for the games leading up to the fatigue hit. And we ALL know how ugly of a situation that would create.

AND If I hit a 3rd OT anywhere in the next six games then I’ll be royally screwed, I’d rather lose in regulation than win in OT for the next few games or the nightmare I’m already dealing with become exponential.

I can sit my low usage guys or Hardaway without any problems but here’s my big issue: to rest Daugherty I HAVE to keep 8 usage points at the two G positions to stay out of the team usage penalty because I don’t have any usage from my backups. That means 96 minutes from Deron, West and Hardaway for a game, which could be done but would create yet another problem by pushing those three further over their already extended minutes.

The traditional route to minute recovery is of course the “clear the bench” option. I hate this because it messes up my beautiful data, but worse yet I have 4 scrubs, NOT 5. I’d love it if the sim would let me designate Korver as my 5th guy for clear the bench because he actually has excess minutes, but we ALL know that the guys that come in for garbage time are the 5 with the lowest scheduled minutes for the game, meaning Hardaway will burn even more of his precious minutes with the scrubs, which is a real catch-22 because I NEED at least 16 minutes from him in any game I rest Daugherty.

And I really don’t want to schedule my guys for like 24 minutes a few times to get back my minutes back either, because I refuse to mess up their per game averages, I LOVE seeing my guys near the top of the league leaders board and I’d rather lose a game by resting them altogether than see them drop off the list. The “must start five drafted players” rule in this league is something I also have always followed and would never break, plus I don’t want to mess up my position on the team rankings board. I guess I’m just basically screwed at this point and may have to play with fatigued guys in game 11 and try something unique in game 12 against the currently 0-4 iccoachb team that I may be able to compete with even if I have some expose to the team usage penalty for that game.

I’ve decided that my immediate fix is to go ahead and set up to 4mpg of “clear the bench” and hope to recapture a few of my minutes without messing up my data too much, but man that’s a painful route for me to take for the reasons mentioned above.

Would love to hear what some of you guys would do in my current situation.

5/28/2013 2:25 AM
1) Calm Down. 2) Relax. 3) Spend Quality Time with Family. 4) Do your best to make the substitions work out on a game to game basis until the crisis is over.
5/28/2013 6:19 PM
Great advice Vance, was going on something like 48 hours without sleep when I wrote the above, and as I KNOW you have seen here from time to time my mind can tend to both wonder and get fixated on something that in retrospect ends up being pretty minute at the end of the day.

I ended up rolling the dice against banditone last night and sat Daugherty and was lucky enough to win by 33 so my bench was cleared as well, now the only guy left with a looming significant fatigue issue is Chandler, and as long as I can avoid another OT, I have a plan to get him fixed too.
5/28/2013 7:09 PM
I'd tell you what I do, but it's like one of the few aspects where coaching actually plays a role in the sim and your success isn't just in how you build your team in the first place.  Best of luck to you in getting it sorted out.
5/28/2013 7:54 PM
Working of 26-game eval update now.
6/7/2013 6:21 PM
Atlantic W-L PCT GB L10 STRK Owner  
Ash "Funktown" Mustangs 19-7 0.731 - 8-2 W7 ashamael
Big Fun-duh-Mental 17-9 0.654 2 6-4 L1 felonius
For All My Daughters 13-13 0.500 6 6-4 W3 98average
Space Ghost 12-14 0.462 7 5-5 W1 longtallbrad
The Brothers Brandon 11-15 0.423 8 2-8 L2 tarheel1991
Phi Slamma Jamma 4-22 0.154 15 3-7 L3 iccoachb

Central W-L PCT GB L10 STRK Owner  
KAJ33+3's 18-8 0.692 - 8-2 W3 badja
Don't Call It A Comeback 16-10 0.615 2 6-4 W4 slymonium
Three Star Ego Strokers 16-10 0.615 2 4-6 L5 natenoy
DurantsDynamicDozen 15-11 0.577 3 7-3 L1 dh555
KT's Nowitzki Loneriders 10-16 0.385 8 4-6 W1 katernberg
Tsunami Crew 5-21 0.192 13 1-9 L4 banditone

MW W-L PCT GB L10 STRK Owner  
Living Loving Maid 16-10 0.615 - 4-6 L2 logain
King Kong D 15-11 0.577 1 6-4 W4 mikee1
Red Hot 13-13 0.500 3 6-4 W1 coachcroft
So You're Telling Me There's a Chance!? 13-13 0.500 3 3-7 L6 thomcat
Brave Dragons 12-14 0.462 4 6-4 L1 seapilots
What Was I Doing 11-15 0.423 5 5-5 W2 steelers821

Pacific W-L PCT GB L10 STRK Owner  
Hindsight is 20/20 19-7 0.731 - 7-3 L1 vancem
William's Grizzlies 17-9 0.654 2 6-4 W1 theyard2
DoneDeal In God We Trust!!! 15-11 0.577 4 7-3 L1 tanguma44
Tastes Like HoneyNut Cheerios 10-16 0.385 9 3-7 L2 eleibowitz
NoRegard4HumanLife 8-18 0.308 11 4-6 W1 tricky24
Monte Carlo Sim1 7-19 0.269 12 3-7 W2 maglor1

6/7/2013 6:29 PM (edited)
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DH $52 Division Draft Analysis / League Prediction Topic

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