DH $52 Division Draft Analysis / League Prediction Topic

Great job natenoy. I just got back from a 4 day vacation in the hinterlands of Oregon and didn't have internet access. Seeing these evaluations was quite  treat.
6/10/2013 10:25 PM
Thanks Vance. Figured that vacation had hit since you've been quiet in the league forum.

6/10/2013 10:30 PM
Well I also get quiet during losing streaks to be honest LOL! 
6/11/2013 1:43 AM
Cross-conference results
East 70; West 74

  PPG ORB DREB REB orb% dreb%
East 115.9 12.9 35.3 48.2 26.56% 70.38%
West 116.1 14.9 35.6 50.4 29.62% 73.44%

  Poss Tov efg FTM PF
East 120.5 15.35% 53.59% 17.6 18.9
West 122.4 14.67% 52.08% 18.3 18.4

Cross-conference Update

Well the West did much better than I thought they would, actually the success of the West was driven by the super-division that tricky put together for himself, even maglor’s team came to life with an 8-4 record, one of only five teams in the entire league to fair that well over these last 12 games.

The bottom line was close at 74-70 wins for the West, scoring was even closer with a 116.1-115.9 or 0.2ppg for the West.  As expected the East took the efg battle, but not by as wide a margin that would have been expected coming in, the end result in this category was 53.59% East and 52.08% West for a 1.51% shooting advantage for the East.

However, the West took all of the remaining key metrics. The West had an orb advantage of 14.9 to 12.9 and an oreb% advantage of 29.62% to 26.56%. The raw numbers for the dreb advantage was razor thin at 35.6 to 35.3, but the dreb% advantage was 73.44% to 70.38%. The oreb advantage meant a total board advantage of 50.4 to 48.2 or 2.2 more boards per game for the West.

Because of the orb advantage and fewer turnovers the West held a 122.4 to 120.5 possession advantage with the TOV% advantage being 14.67% to 15.35%. The West also won the FT battle committing 70 fewer fouls, attempting 112 additional FTA’s and making 105 more FT’s, averages were: West FTMpg 18.3 to 17.6 and West PFpg 18.4 to 18.9.

The record breakdown by number of teams is as follows:

9-3: 1E; 0W; 1 total
8-4: 2E; 2W; 4 total
7-5: 1E; 3W; 4 total
6-6: 4E; 3W; 7 total
5-7: 0E; 3W; 3 total
4-8: 3E; 1W; 4 total
2-10: 1E; 0W; 1 total

The Pacific was the dominant division at 41-31; the Central also had a winning record at 37-35; and the other two divisions both went 33-39.

Only four teams in the entire team averaged a scoring advantage of 4ppg or more: led by Vance who was virtually dominant at +11.3 and went 8-4; tar at +8.0 and 8-4; seapilots at +5.0 but was a real hard luck team at only 6-6; and my team that was lucky enough to have a league best 9-3 record with an advantage of only +4.4 (which was actually at +7.5 in the first 11 games before tricky unleashed a 30-point beat-down on me in the final game).

The other two 8-4 teams were Kat at +3.0 and the shock of the league maglor who was also 8-4 but with an advantage that rounded up to only +0.2ppg.  

The stats and key story lines by division are below. I’ve saved all the stat files and will likely give a more complete analysis after Round 2.

6/14/2013 12:20 AM (edited)

Team W L Pct Conf W Conf L Pct Diff
The Brothers Brandon 8 4 66.67% 11 15 42.31% 24.36%
Space Ghost 7 5 58.33% 12 14 46.15% 12.18%
Big Fun-duh-Mental 6 6 50.00% 17 9 65.38% -15.38%
Ash "Funktown" Mustangs 6 6 50.00% 19 7 73.08% -23.08%
For All My Daughters 4 8 33.33% 13 13 50.00% -16.67%
Phi Slamma Jamma 2 10 16.67% 4 22 15.38% 1.28%
  33 39 45.83%        

Team PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A diff
The Brothers Brandon 124.5 116.5 8.0 53.93% 53.31% 0.61%
Space Ghost 110.6 109.0 1.6 53.62% 50.74% 2.88%
Big Fun-duh-Mental 117.6 116.8 0.8 53.63% 51.47% 2.16%
Ash "Funktown" Mustangs 113.8 113.6 0.3 52.52% 49.22% 3.30%
For All My Daughters 111.3 113.8 -2.4 51.31% 50.75% 0.55%
Phi Slamma Jamma 99.3 110.9 -11.6 47.62% 53.45% -5.83%

Key story lines:

1.    Tar gets back in the hunt with 8-4 record;

2.    Brad gets back to .500 with solid shooting and D

3.   Ash and felonius out shoot opponents but tread water at 6-6

98 starts to fade from contention at 4-8

5.    Icc stakes claim for most ping pong balls in the lottery with league worst 2-10

Tar: I was not surprised that tar got back into it, as he has the highest efg in the division for the 12 games at 53.31%. Unlike four of the six teams in the division, tar’s scoring essentially held up as his conference ppg average of 124.7 dipped only to 124.5. The other key for tar was that teams in the East were scoring 122.0ppg against him but the West averaged only 116.5ppg, a 5.5ppg improvement. His 8-4 showing has tar right back in the playoff hunt (where I knew he was all along.)

Brad: Was the ONLY team in the division to score more ppg going from 108.5ppg to 110.6ppg and also the ONLY team in the division to improve in efg, which is pretty amazing considering the better D in the West as his efg v. the East was 51.64% and improved to 53.62% v. the West.  At 7-5 Brad returns to .500 and is only a game back of a playoff spot atm, if he can maintain his improvements then he’ll remain in the hunt for the duration.

Ash and felonius: both of these teams won both the shooting and scoring battles but WIS seemed to “normalize” some games on both of them as each went 6-6. Ash had a nasty scoring drop going from 121.3ppg to 113.8 in the cross-conference games, his efg also dropped from his previous division high of 56.60% to a 12-game “shooting slump” of 52.52%. The good news for ash was he was the only team to hold the West under a 50% efg at 49.22%. Felonius on the other hand had his shooting hold up but his ppg went from 121.6 to 117.6ppg, and he was the ONLY team in the division to actually allow MORE ppg against the West than the East going from 115.0 to 116.8 (to his defense the engine seemed to
“normalize” some fouls and FTA’s on him.) 6-6 disappointments aside these are still the two teams to beat in the division.

98average: 98 entered these 12 games at .500 and left them in a nasty hole by going 4-8. His scoring average dropped from 120.9 all the way down to 111.3, a 9.6ppg drop that was the worst in the division. At first I thought that perhaps 98 had switched from uptempo to HC but after taking a look that was not the case, so I dug a little deeper. Much of the answer can be found within the FTA battle as 98 dropped from 20.7 ftm/g to 16.3 ftm/g while his own fouls increased.  As I noted 12 games ago “winning the FTM and TOV battles keeps 98 on the bubble.” Unless those advantages return against the East, 98 may have a long 2nd half of the season.

Icc: Things went from ugly to U-G-L-Y for icc over the last 12 games. At 2-10 he was two games worse than any other team in the league and is ppg dropped from 105.5 to 99.3. His efg also dropped from 49.43% to 47.62%. On the bright side he is on pace for almost 13 wins, far better than vance’s prediction of 8. The bad thing for the 4-teams battling it out in the Central is that the other contenders still get 4 more games against icc while we only get 2. The Central is REALLY rooting for you icc, please steal a few from these guys for us. 

6/14/2013 5:16 AM (edited)

Team W L Pct Conf W Conf L Pct Diff
Three Star Ego Strokers 9 3 75.00% 16 10 61.54% 13.46%
KT's Nowitzki Loneriders 8 4 66.67% 10 16 38.46% 28.21%
KAJ33+3's 6 6 50.00% 15 11 57.69% -7.69%
DurantsDynamicDozen 6 6 50.00% 15 11 57.69% -7.69%
Don't Call It A Comeback 4 8 33.33% 16 10 61.54% -28.21%
Tsunami Crew 4 8 33.33% 5 21 19.23% 14.10%
  37 35 51.39%        

Team PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A diff
Three Star Ego Strokers 112.3 107.8 4.4 55.27% 51.57% 3.71%
KT's Nowitzki Loneriders 125.7 122.7 3.0 55.88% 54.05% 1.83%
KAJ33+3's 122.0 119.0 3.0 57.19% 52.44% 4.75%
DurantsDynamicDozen 124.3 123.5 0.8 57.82% 53.07% 4.75%
Don't Call It A Comeback 116.9 120.1 -3.2 53.90% 50.73% 3.17%
Tsunami Crew 112.8 119.3 -6.5 50.32% 54.17% -3.85%

Key story lines:

1.    Did I really say this: “the next 12 games will give a good read on how good this team could have been had DH not screwed it by drafting it in the Central.” BEFORE Kat tied for the 2nd best record in the entire league at 8-4 against the West?

2.       Was it just dumb luck or my team’s switch to HC that netted me a league best 9-3 record against the West?

3.       Great shooting continues for both Badja and DH but only nets them 6-6 each

4.       WTF is going on with sly’s team? 4-8 NFW!

5.       Improvement for banditone, but only translates to 4-8

Katernberg: the switch to uptempo explains some of this improvement but Kat’s matchup advantages against the West also helped fuel his insane improvement over these 12 games: the only team in the division with a PPG improvement and one of only two that had an increase in efg: ppg from 118.2 to 125.7 (+7.5ppg); efg from 53.66% to 55.88% (+2.22%); also went from a -2.7ppg differential to +3.0 and from -2.15% in efg difference to +1.83. Great improvement Kat, but due to the relative strength of the division and the conference I have to slot this team as still being outside of the playoff race.

Natenoy: I’ll take 9-3, there were a lot of close games though and I got held below 100 points in all three losses.  6-0 at home but 3 of the 6 were by a combined 10 points, so I did have some good luck going for me. It’s difficult to discern the impact of switching from uptempo to HC at this point since the games were against a somewhat different population of teams.  For me possessions dropped by 11.2; ppg by 14.6; FGM by 5.0 and FGA by 6.4; FTM by 4.0 and FTA by 6.0; the good news was that turnovers went down by 2.1 and fouls by 3.5 but efg also dropped by 1.88%, which isn’t bad considering the better D in the West.

A MAJOR concern I have is that my tov% in uptempo was 16.78%, and my tov% in HC for the 12 games was 16.55%, NOT the drastic improvement I was hoping for and perhaps the individual penalty is not hurting me like I thought it was. Again, not the same population of teams, but my opponents actually scored 15.5 fewer points per game and my differential climbed from +3.5 to +4.4 and the bottom line was a league best 9-3. So in short, HC dropped my numbers across the board but at least for 12 games it somehow made my team better. This team projects to continue to be a playoff contender.

Badja and DH had results very similar to felonius and ash in the Atlantic. Badja continued to be one of the best shooting teams in the league even though his efg dropped by 2.12%, from an off-the-chart 59.31% to a still insane 57.19% and even though his ppg dropped by 10.8ppg he held opponents to 11.6 fewer ppg. Both he and DH on paper should have fared better than 6-6, DH actually saw his efg% increase from 55.92% to one-up on badja at 57.82%, the problem for DH was that the West actually somehow scored MORE ppg than what he had been giving up in the East with a slight increase from 123.0 to 123.5. With their respective shooting neither of these guys will be exiting the playoff chase anytime soon and both have as good as chance as sly and me to win the division.

Sly: Went 4-8 and the numbers were FAR worse than that. PPG dropped by 11.1 from 128.0 to 116.9 while opponents only dropped from 121.8 to 120.1, meaning sly went from +6.2ppg to -3.2ppg, a -9.4ppg swing. Efg also dropped by a conference worst 3.24% from 57.14% down to 53.90%. Not really sure WTF is going on here, sometimes the Sim does things that defy logic and this may be one of those times. However, I think I can speak for both badja and DH along with myself in stating that we all still fear this team and it is pretty likely to recoup some of this underperformance in the near future, we just all are hoping it comes against the other two of the three of us.

Banditone:  The bright side of this 4-8 showing was that this team went from -10.9ppg to only -6.5ppg in scoring differential. Banditone is in all-out spoiler mode at this point, and again the four contenders all are hoping that his remaining wins in the division come at the expense of the other three.

6/14/2013 3:43 AM (edited)

Team W L Pct Conf W Conf L Pct Diff
Red Hot 7 5 58.33% 13 13 50.00% 8.33%
Brave Dragons 6 6 50.00% 12 14 46.15% 3.85%
So You're Telling Me  6 6 50.00% 13 13 50.00% 0.00%
Living Loving Maid 5 7 41.67% 16 10 61.54% -19.87%
King Kong D 5 7 41.67% 15 11 57.69% -16.03%
What Was I Doing 4 8 33.33% 11 15 42.31% -8.97%
  33 39 45.83%        

Team PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A diff
Red Hot 104.3 103.0 1.3 50.58% 51.76% -1.17%
Brave Dragons 121.0 116.0 5.0 53.51% 52.09% 1.42%
So You're Telling Me  113.9 116.8 -2.8 53.29% 58.01% -4.72%
Living Loving Maid 122.9 127.3 -4.3 58.94% 56.63% 2.31%
King Kong D 109.9 114.5 -4.6 50.63% 53.04% -2.41%
What Was I Doing 109.8 110.4 -0.7 48.97% 52.56% -3.59%

Key story lines:

1.       Only slow down team in the league Coach has most success in division v. East at 7-5

2.       Seapilots and thomcat two different paths to 6-6

3.       Logain’s D gets lit up by East as his hold on the division starts to slip with 5-7 performance

4.       Mikee joins logain in fading pattern at 5-7

5.       Stick a fork in steelers, he’s done after 4-8 showing

Coachcroft: normally a 7-5 mark over 12 games would not qualify as a “Red Hot” streak, but when you are the only team in the division with a winning record against the East the team name fits the occasion. The slow-down style was a real nightmare for a number of teams in the East and coach held opponents to a division low 51.76% efg which was even better than the 52.43% he previously held his own conference to, quite an impressive feat against the high-powered East. Coach also held the East to only 103.0ppg while scoring 104.3 himself, one of only two teams in the division to outscore the East. This style may not be pretty, but it has Coach in a position to challenge for a playoff spot.

Seapilots had a very strong showing against the East at +5.0ppg as he upped his scoring from 116.5ppg to 121.0ppg and only gave up 1.5ppg more going from 114.5ppgA to 116.0. He also went from losing the shooting battle by -0.21% to winning it by 1.42%, with these numbers he should have seen a better result than 6-6 and if his team can carry this over back into conference play then he will be in the hunt as well. Meanwhile, thomcat should consider himself quite lucky to have survived these 12 games at 6-6, the East shot an amazing 58.01% efg against this team while thomcat shot only 53.29%, its generally quite difficult to stay .500 when you are out-shot by 4.72% but thomcat pulled it off. This team is hanging around on the fringes of the playoff hunt, but HAS to bring that negative efg differential down in a hurry if he wants to keep his playoff hopes alive.

Logain: at 5-7 logain actually did much better than I thought he would against the East, and if you just looked at how his D performed you would never believe he didn’t get buried worse. Against his own conference logain held opponents to 118.6ppg and an efg of 52.88%, but the East LIT him up for 127.3ppg and an efg of 56.63%. Also I think we may be seeing the cap on what the 140%+ ast% can do, against the West logain had an efg of 58.69% and against the East which is MUCH lighter on D it only climbed to 58.94%. However, logain did prove me wrong and was able to hold onto a share of the division lead after cross-conference play but with less than 50% of his remaining games against the Midwest I’m still predicting that in the end he will either just get into the playoffs and get snuffed early or just miss them, but with an efg over 58% he will be in the running for the entire season.

Mikee: also very lucky to have gone 5-7 and not worse. It appears he has gone back and forth between uptempo and HC, but his numbers against the East were a major disappointment to say the least. His own ppg dropped from 119.5 to 109.9 (-9.6ppg) while opponents went from 115.2 to 114.5, meaning he lost -8.9ppg in scoring differential  and his efg dropped by 3.18% while opponents had a slight increase. I still believe this is the best team in the division, but it’s apparent that Mikee is unlikely to run away with it like I originally thought he would.

Steelers: out-shot by -3.81% by West and trend continued with -3.59% efg differential versus East. Was shooting 48.72% efg and against weak D of East only improved to 48.97%. You just can’t have an efg under 49% in this league and even have a prayer at the playoffs, IMO steelers needs a miracle at this point to get back in it and I just don’t think one will come.

6/14/2013 5:14 AM (edited)

Team W L Pct Conf W Conf L Pct Diff
Hindsight is 20/20 8 4 66.67% 19 7 73.08% -6.41%
Monte Carlo Sim1 8 4 66.67% 7 19 26.92% 39.74%
DoneDeal In God We Trust!!! 7 5 58.33% 15 11 57.69% 0.64%
William's Grizzlies 7 5 58.33% 17 9 65.38% -7.05%
NoRegard4HumanLife 6 6 50.00% 8 18 30.77% 19.23%
Tastes Like HoneyNut Cheerios 5 7 41.67% 10 16 38.46% 3.21%
  41 31 56.94%        

Team PPG PPG A Diff efg efg A diff
Hindsight is 20/20 124.2 112.9 11.3 54.21% 52.56% 1.64%
Monte Carlo Sim1 104.9 104.8 0.2 47.70% 52.88% -5.18%
DoneDeal In God We Trust!!! 120.6 119.5 1.1 52.39% 52.02% 0.36%
William's Grizzlies 123.7 124.6 -0.9 52.81% 54.75% -1.94%
NoRegard4HumanLife 116.8 116.5 0.3 50.63% 51.99% -1.36%
Tastes Like HoneyNut Cheerios 121.2 124.9 -3.8 51.66% 54.81% -3.14%

Key story lines:

1. Vance’s ticket to the finals seems all but “punched” as he goes 8-4 on cruise control

2. Kobe leads Maglor on fun 8-4 ride

3. tang and theyard, same 7-5 outcome with VERY different personalities

4. Eleibowitz about to have the plug pulled on his life support at 5-7

5. Tricky wishes he would have drafted some of the six teams in the East he defeated at 6-6


Vance: this team doesn’t just defeat you when you play it, it obliterates you. Vance had league best +11.8ppg differential against his own conference and stayed strong by going +11.3 against the East. Only potential looming issue may be how he does on the road against elite efg teams, efg against in West was 48.60% but grew to 52.56% versus East, however Vance’s own efg also improved  from 52.74% to 54.21% and other advantages such as the FTA and turnover battles remained strongly in Vance’s favor. Efg advantage did dip from +4.14% to only +1.64%, giving “some” hope that Vance “may” be a little vulnerable on the road against high efg teams because of the home court shooting bump, but as of now this is Vance’s title to lose.

Maglor: the great news was that Kobe caught fire and Maglor improved by 4.0ppg going from 100.9ppg to 104.9, while at the same time opponents ppg dropped from 109.6ppg to 104.8ppg, an improvement of 8.9ppg in differential . Problem is that the team efg only rose from 45.30% to 47.70%. Kobe will provide some fun rides the rest of the way and the 8-4 run must have been fun for Maglor, but when your team shoots more than 6% efg below the league average there is just no way to mount a challenge for a playoff spot.

Theyard wins with class but he was lucky to escape with a 7-5 record based on his stats. Went from +3.8ppg to -0.9ppg differential and from +2.32% efg to -1.94%.But this team is super-strong and matches up quite well with everyone in the conference not named Vance, the playoffs are a near lock at this point. On the one hand we have the classy theyard, and on the other hand we have tang whose mouth likes to write checks that his team simply cannot cash. Somehow managed to go 7-5 despite being outscored and outshot and watching his ppgA go from 113.0ppg to 119.5ppg. Got whacked by 30 against ash after pre-proclaiming a win, and talked some good smack prior to my victory over him as well. Tang, I’m cool with your style, but know that if you want to talk smack then you need to be prepared to take it when your team goes down. This team is still in a very strong position for a playoff appearance.

Eliebowitz: Started with an OT loss to me and things did not get much better as he continued to be outscored by 3.8ppg and be outshot by over 3% in efg. Time is rapidly running out for this team to climb back in it, and I’d say after these last 12 games and a 5-7 record that the odds have dropped from 30-70 to maybe 10-90 at this point.

Tricky: this team actually had incredible improvement even though it only went 6-6.  Actually outscored the East 116.8 to 116.5 after being outscored in the West by -8.4ppg. Cumulative numbers are somewhat inflated though by the 30-point beatdown he dished out to my team in the last game of Round I, I’m sure tricky enjoyed that one since I’ve given him so much grief over this division, but that was pretty much his Super Bowl for this season, as this team has to far too go and not enough strengths to get back in it this season.

6/14/2013 9:34 AM (edited)
Updated evals/outlooks on page 6. Hope you guys enjoy, this one took me a little while to write up.
6/14/2013 6:18 AM
Thoroughly enjoyable and thought-provoking.  Thanks, nate!
6/14/2013 8:45 AM
Thanks for reading it Brad, I enjoy putting these together anyway, but it's nice to know others are looking at it.
6/14/2013 9:19 AM
normalizing losses against bottom dwellers in the west sure do **** me off
6/14/2013 9:31 AM
Posted by felonius on 6/14/2013 9:31:00 AM (view original):
normalizing losses against bottom dwellers in the west sure do **** me off
felonius I felt your pain as tricky crushed me by 30, but mikee was solid enough to beat me and Vance is Vance so no shame losing there. So I got screwed once, you and ash got screwed a combined 7-10 times, and not sure WTF the engine was doing to sly. But yea, "normalizing" really gets me fired up as well, because like you I never seem to be on the gift side of normalization only the side that gets screwed.
6/14/2013 9:38 AM
great stuff
6/14/2013 12:12 PM
Thanks dh.
6/14/2013 12:24 PM
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DH $52 Division Draft Analysis / League Prediction Topic

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