ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem Topic

You aren't alone Steelers. I also don't know about that. Any help would be appreciated.
6/25/2013 8:04 PM
You need to calculate the total number of possession that led to scoring opportunities.
6/25/2013 8:44 PM
Posted by steelers821 on 6/25/2013 11:49:00 AM (view original):
    Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
    Joe Dumars 95-96 Pistons PG 17.0 44.4 40.3 52.8 1.5 5.6 17.2 0.9 0.1
    Mario Chalmers 11-12 Heat PG 17.5 51.2 38.9 54.9 1.0 9.1 16.0 2.5 0.4
    Maurice Cheeks 86-87 76ers PG 17.4 53.0 24.2 52.9 2.1 6.9 24.4 2.9 0.3
    Tim Duncan 97-98 Spurs PF 26.0 55.4 0.0 54.9 10.3 22.2 9.4 0.8 3.8
    Elton Brand 06-07 Clippers PF 24.7 53.0 100.0 53.3 10.1 17.6 10.6 1.2 3.6
    Ed Davis 11-12 Raptors PF 13.9 51.5 0.0 51.3 9.7 21.8 5.5 1.2 2.6
    Dale Davis 95-96 Pacers PF 14.8 55.5 0.0 55.8 11.8 20.0 4.0 1.0 2.7
this should be my final 7 seasons ill use
the defense is 70,58,80,100,99,60,71
great D, solid efficiency, but looks to have some serious usage and DREB issues.
6/25/2013 11:14 PM
Thanks again guys for the RL well wishes. I won't make any promises about what I will do with the evals, but know for sure that I WILL make sure my end is complete before we start playing games. I'll post about RL FGA per min shortly.
6/26/2013 12:11 AM
Feels like I have been off the site for a month, btw Vance has a proxy for my next pick since my availability could be touch and go for the next few days.
6/26/2013 12:13 AM

Ok, since I limited on time right now I quickly address the “down and dirty” about  what is being call “attempts per” or what I have labeled in my spreadsheets as FGA/m.

I have been looking at this variable for a few seasons now and I cannot say with 100% certainty how important it REALLY is in the sim, we can get into some detailed discussion about how it may factor in once the draft is over and I’m caught up on the evals etc., but maybe Felonius has some time to share what it likely did to him in the Dh$52 the season before this one.

First the only reference I can find to it by WIS can be found at the top of page #10 in this forum in the post by felonius of the WIS FAQ:

“4. A player has been fouled. This can be a shooting foul or a personal foul on the floor. This decision is determined using historical averages and the player’s real-life field goal attempt rate”

So we KNOW for a FACT that WIS at a minimum utilizes “real-life field goal attempt rate” at least for deciding if a foul is on the floor or a shooting foul. If I had time I could go on a tangent about this as well, Malone may be correct in his assumption that “scoring opportunities per minute” *which would be: (FGA+FTA)/Min OR (FGA + (FTA x.44)) / Min is utilized. However since WIS is telling me in the FAQ that FGA/m actually plays at least some role in determining whether or not there is an FTA in the sim I’m sticking with my assumption that FGA/m is the critical variable to look at. This tells us for a FACT that at least some portion of FTA/m in the sim is a dependant variable of RL FGA

The variable is calculated simply by dividing your player’s Real Life (RL) FGA’s by his RL minutes. You then know exactly how many shots per minute he averaged in real life. You should do this calculation for ALL of your player and pay very special attention to the player on your team with the highest rate, because IMO this is critical and every season I have looked at this variable the player with the highest FGA/min has ended up with the most FGA attempts on a per-minute basis in the sim, even if he is NOT the player with the highest usage rate on the team.

I will post  a ballpark example of how I used fga/m for my last Kobe team in just a bit but what you should do right now is look at every guy on your team  and divide his RL FGA’s by the number of minutes he played, this will give you an “attempts per” for each of your guys, I’ll share another post shortly about where I would go from there.

6/26/2013 1:13 AM (edited)
cant find it in the FAQ either but there is definitely a 'Bo Outlaw must not be allowed to take 20 shots a game' element involved beyond the team usage table element - and this particular white whale may be one of the most crazy making elements in the sim because you can totally draft enough possessions but in any single game you have no control over whether Brent Barry decides to go Kobe on you and take 25 shots hitting 3 of them while turning it over 8 times and fouling out in 6 minutes - that's on that very stable-ist/seble-ist of elements, the engine
6/26/2013 1:19 AM

Some quick facts about the last ODL and fga/m

The league average in the sim was 93.36 fga, per team, per game. I don’t have the EXACT number of minutes per team, but with OT and some total minute rounding (some games your players add up to 241, 242, 239 etc) and my own observations I’d put the league average at about 19,800 (my own team had 19,785). SO, that’s about 241.46 mpg per team, meaning the league average for fga/m in the sim was about 93.36/241.46 = .387

The .387 is on a per player basis, so multiply that by 5 to get the league average for 5 guys on the court, which is 1.935. Hit that and IMO you should avoid the individual penalty for the most part.

FGA/min in the sim is determined by more than just RL fga/m (for example team orb’s play an obvious role.) 

It’s easy to check what your RL fga for any 5 guys that will be on the court at the same time will be, for example with my current squad, if I start D Walker, R Allen, D Granger, T Chandler, and Shaq, then based on the versions I could use my total FGA/ min for my five starters would be found as follows

Walker: 696/2883 = .241

Ray: 1500/3022 = .496

Granger: 1277/2424 = .527

Chandler: 407/2059 = .198

Shaq: 1665/3163 = .526

So my the total for my five starters is: 1.989, which is higher than the league ave of 1.935 produced by the sim last season, so IMO, no one in this group would be very likely to hit the individual penalty in the sim while this group of 5 is on the floor.

I don’t think you REALLY need to be as high as 1.935 to avoid the penalty , because look at my team and the 19 total usage points for the above versions. That’s a huge number and while I do plan to start all 5 my three usage guys will only be sharing about 11mpg with all-3 on the floor since Ray/Granger will play all 48mpg of my SF or SG minutes and I’m actually going to use the 95% efficient  at Center Granger for the 8-9 mpg that Shaq sits out (which is a topic for another time, but since I will have 4-5 guys with .5 usage and I don’t  have a high usage back-up for Shaq, I HAVE to use Granger there to avoid exposure to the TEAM usage penalty.


If you can get to .375 per player or 1.875 for 5 guys then you are likely in the ball park of avoiding the penalty IMO. I’ll share one more thing in a few minutes, and btw I let this eat up my time to do more evals tonight, sorry about that.

Another important note, the top 1/3 of the league in terms of sim fga was 8 for 8 with winning records.  This group of 8 included the league champs, runners up, 3 of the 4 division winners, a 52-win #2 seed, both #3 seeds, a #6 seed, the best non-playoff team in the league that went 45-37 and just missed the playoffs at 7th in a conference, and finally a 42-40 team. The first team with a losing record was 9th in the league in FGA/m.

Like I said RL FGA/m does not account for 100% of FGA/m in the sim, but IMO it does play a role, and based on last season’s  results this is a variable that is worth being aware of.

6/26/2013 3:32 AM


Here is the other thing that IMO makes FGA/m VERY important in the sim and I’ll use my Kobe team from the last ODL to help illustrate my point.

RL Kobe had a RL fga/m ratio of .664. The weighted average for the remainder of my team (with the minutes for Kobe's back-up removed from the equation for the minutes he was replacing Kobe on the floor) was a weighted average of .252 per player. SO, on average Kobe and his .664 ratio was on the court with four guys that combined for a 1.007 RL fga/min ratio.

I only drafted 6,559 RL FGA’s for my team because I knew I could do something cool with Kobe, and the sim generated 7,675 total FGA’s for my ream.

So the sim took my RL team FGA’s from 6,559 to 7,675, which is 1,116 more FGA’s than RL or an increase of 16.25%.

Here is the really important thing to note IMO, knowing what each of your player’s FGA/m ratio’s are can give you a REALLY good idea about what % of your teams’ shots are likely to be assigned to each individual player. Kobe had a RL FGA/min ratio that made up .664 of my team’s 1.671 fga/min total. That means that Kobe was expected to take .664 of every 1.671 of the shots my team took or about 39.73% of all the shots taken by my team when Kobe was on the floor.

So, back to my FGA increase from RL: Kobe had 2,173 fga in RL (26.5 shots per game )that year but I was able to get an amazing 2,607 shots from Kobe in the sim, which Is about 32.6 shots per game in the 80 games I used him. So, Kobe accounted for 434 of my 1116 FGA increase in the sim or 38.9% of the increase (and I sat him two games). I didn’t save every boxscore, so I’m not positive how many total shots I had the two games I sat Kobe, but it was likely around 170-180, so Kobe really accounted for about 46% of the increased shots.

Another thing to look at his court time for Kobe. He played 3,354 minutes for me in the sim. My team played 19,795 total minutes so Kobe could have played (19,795/5) 3,959 minutes if I used him 48mpg every game all season.

In theory my team averaged a constant FGA/m rate (but we KNOW it has at least somewhat lower when Kobe was not on the court). Kobe played 3,354 of a possible 3,959 minutes for me, so he was on the court 3,354/3959 = 84.72%. If we assume that the fga/m rate was a constant then Kobe was on the court for 84.72% of my total FGA’s or .8472 x 7,675 = 6,502 shots. Kobe took 2,607 of those 6,502 available shots or 40.01% of my shots, which is pretty damn consistent with the 39.73% of the RL team FGA/m that he accounted for.

There was of course a drawback to the above as well. In RL Kobe had 250 turnovers  and 2,783 possessions or a tov% of 8.98% (the league average in the sim for the ODL was 15.23%). My RL team fga/m of 1.671 means that I only drafted 1.671 x 48 = or only 80.2 shots per game of the 93.6 the sim generated for me. Sim Kobe had 381 turnovers, that’s 131 more or 52.4% more turnovers in the sim and in RL for Kobe. He had 3,279 possessions in the sim, which means his tov% rose to 11.62%, which is still strong but that increase near 3 percentage points gives you a result of over an extra 1.5 turnover per game.

As always, the sim offers a lot to consider when building a squad. The above is just one example of what I expect to see in the sim given what we know, but there  are a lot more factors on WIS that we could dig pretty deeply into. Hope this at least helped better explain what a few others in the group have been talking about.  Sry, I can’t get back into this topic again until I’m current on the evals. But will be more than happy to discuss this more at some point

6/26/2013 5:27 AM
BTW, very good doctors at The Ohio State University Hospital, my wife has responded well to the treatment plan and there is no long-term vital organ damage, talking 4-5 weeks of recovery, but very thankful the docs are talking "recovery plan" now, 
6/26/2013 5:33 AM
Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk% Min Def
Dwight Howard 09-10 Magic C 24 61.3 0 61.2 11.6 29.3 6.7 1.2 4.7 2843 90
Deron Williams 07-08 Jazz PG 23.4 53 39.3 54.4 1.3 8 34.2 1.4 0.5 3059 70
Brent Barry 01-02 SuperSonics SG 16.2 59 42.3 61.1 2.1 13.7 17.8 2.2 0.7 3040 63
Kenneth Faried 12-13 Nuggets PF 17.8 55 0 55.2 12.6 21.5 4.1 1.6 2.1 2248 56
Amare Stoudemire 07-08 Suns C 28.7 59.9 16 59.2 7.8 20.1 5.2 1 3.3 2681 55
Samuel Dalembert 05-06 76ers C 13.9 53.2 0 53.1 10.2 24 1.9 0.9 5.4 1759 71
Chris Childs 96-97 Knicks PG 16.8 42.7 38.5 48.2 1.3 9 26.3 1.7 0.3 2076 49
6/26/2013 8:35 AM
Nice looking team krishna
6/26/2013 9:35 AM
Posted by natenoy on 6/26/2013 5:33:00 AM (view original):
BTW, very good doctors at The Ohio State University Hospital, my wife has responded well to the treatment plan and there is no long-term vital organ damage, talking 4-5 weeks of recovery, but very thankful the docs are talking "recovery plan" now, 
glad to hear nate
6/26/2013 4:59 PM
Posted by malone9975 on 6/26/2013 4:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by natenoy on 6/26/2013 5:33:00 AM (view original):
BTW, very good doctors at The Ohio State University Hospital, my wife has responded well to the treatment plan and there is no long-term vital organ damage, talking 4-5 weeks of recovery, but very thankful the docs are talking "recovery plan" now, 
glad to hear nate
6/26/2013 5:51 PM

Thanks again guys, the timing of this sure sucked but I guess there is never a “good” time for something like this. My wife is home today and resting so it looks like I can catch up on ODL stuff finally. I’m working on the evals now and placing teams into groups. I have updated page 1 with what “group #”  means for purposes of the evals and I am in the process of placing each team in a group. After I place everyone then I’ll go down the list and add additional comments for everyone.

I’ll also create a division draft thread in a few minutes. As I just said it looks good that I’ll have a lot of availability for the next few days, so I am more than happy to collate the division draft rankings and post the results. Looks like seapilots wants to follow the draft rules as originally written, I’ll get a sm out to the group of four in few minutes and confirm that all four want to take part.

Thanks again guys, your well wishes have helped and are appreciated. 

6/27/2013 1:39 PM
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ODL Evaluation Thread. Natenoy vs Vancem Topic

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