2 is a legitimate top 5 guy in my book, if not quite a second pick overall.  #6 is a solid SP2-3.  The others... not so happy with having to look at them with the #2 pick.

If #1 is a legitimate "probably won't sign" you could take him.  But if he's just a "maybe" or an "undecided" the risk is too high that he'll just ask for a ton of money and you won't get the comp pick.  In that case I'd play it safe and snag #2.

Posted by willsauve on 6/18/2013 12:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by greeny9 on 6/18/2013 11:55:00 AM (view original):
This isnt a sh!tty draft, Id say its excellent!  #3 is going to be an absolute  monster hitter, and he can even play RF very effectively.  Those splits with a 100 power?  Id be very very happy to have him with the #2 pick.  And the SP #5 is going to be a stud too.  The nearly perfect CT and 1st pitch along with the awesome DUR/STA and decent to very good other important ratings makes him a CY candidate nearly every year.  Bottom line its between these 2 for me, and Id take whichever one depending on the future makeup of my team.  If Im short on SPs or short on massive HR hitters.  Its hard to be short on stud SPs though ofcourse.

#5 is 22yrs old and his OVR to start is 62.. My training and coaches are not very good so I think he will take a hit with his limited window of progression..

I have to assume that with my low scouting he isnt going to reach the Proj's that are listed.. 

its too bad that your training and coaches arent good.  But that will screw you no matter who you take.  Ofcourse taking an 18 or 19 yr old will give you more time to build up your training and sign much better coaches next season.  The dur sta makes #5 better then #6.  But skill wise #6 is likely going to be better.  You wont go wrong taking either of those 2.  But that hitter is going to be so good, its hard to say no to him.  IFA is much too much of a crap shoot, and in many worlds too many teams are going after them, whereas these guys are going to be good for sure, 14 scouting is pretty accurate.  Though going after a mommy consultant with the guarantee of that player not signing and having a 3 overall next season with 18 scouting and better coaches and training might make the most sense too...  Are you keeping the team long term???

Posted by greeny9 on 6/18/2013 8:40:00 PM (view original):

Posted by willsauve on 6/18/2013 12:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by greeny9 on 6/18/2013 11:55:00 AM (view original):
This isnt a sh!tty draft, Id say its excellent!  #3 is going to be an absolute  monster hitter, and he can even play RF very effectively.  Those splits with a 100 power?  Id be very very happy to have him with the #2 pick.  And the SP #5 is going to be a stud too.  The nearly perfect CT and 1st pitch along with the awesome DUR/STA and decent to very good other important ratings makes him a CY candidate nearly every year.  Bottom line its between these 2 for me, and Id take whichever one depending on the future makeup of my team.  If Im short on SPs or short on massive HR hitters.  Its hard to be short on stud SPs though ofcourse.

#5 is 22yrs old and his OVR to start is 62.. My training and coaches are not very good so I think he will take a hit with his limited window of progression..

I have to assume that with my low scouting he isnt going to reach the Proj's that are listed.. 

its too bad that your training and coaches arent good.  But that will screw you no matter who you take.  Ofcourse taking an 18 or 19 yr old will give you more time to build up your training and sign much better coaches next season.  The dur sta makes #5 better then #6.  But skill wise #6 is likely going to be better.  You wont go wrong taking either of those 2.  But that hitter is going to be so good, its hard to say no to him.  IFA is much too much of a crap shoot, and in many worlds too many teams are going after them, whereas these guys are going to be good for sure, 14 scouting is pretty accurate.  Though going after a mommy consultant with the guarantee of that player not signing and having a 3 overall next season with 18 scouting and better coaches and training might make the most sense too...  Are you keeping the team long term???

Yeah plan to keep the team.. Need SP very bad..

IMHO a monster hitting RF is more valuable then a GG CF with a not very good bat.  You can pick up GG CFs with slightly worse bats in FA many or most years.  Keep in mind that SPs will be good for twice as long as a monster bat though.  power is the first thing to go for bats usually by 28-29 they start to drop, and by 32 theyve dropped off the radar.  SPs dont start losing it until 34/35 and usually last until 38/39.

FWIW, I took a 22 year old pitcher w/ my first pick in a rebuild some years back (I think like 5th overall), his splits improved 19 & 27 points respectively from draft day, frome 63 to 82 for vL and from 68 to 95 for vR.  I think there is the notion that 22 year olds don't improve much following the draft, which I believe is overstated, they still have room to grow.

I'd go w/ #5 and not look back, a guy that should have upper 60s splits, 2 monster pitchers, 2 decent pitches and a 5th pitch that acceptable (for a 5th pitch), plus he'll be able to eat up 240 innings or more a year.  That guy is a recipe for cy young contention most years, something that is going to come at a premium in the free agent market.  The only downside, is that at 22, he's going to be ML ready fairly soon.  Depending on where you are in your rebuild mode, he may be in the show for 2-3 years before the rest of your rebuild catches up.  Otherwise, I'd take #3.

#5 and #3 are both all stars in most worlds in my opinion.

The SP is very good, but if you already have a decent staff or prospects on the rise (essentially, if you have your front end of the rotation taken care of) I would pass because he isn't a dominate world beater,

Like the hitter surely is. The hitter is a solid RF or a gold glove caliber 1b (allowing you to drop a DH-type bat in RF). The RF (#3) is an MVP candidate if surround by a decent lineup.

I'd draft and sign the RF and then look to FA next year and simply pick the best bat (with an emphasis on power) and buy him. Let the RF gain experience in the minors the rest of this season and the two following seasons. If there is a max-ish contract hitter available and you lock him up, you will then have 3 seasons with 2 monster power bats batting 3/4. Those 2 guys alone could carry the offense for you. I'd surround them with strong fielding, high batting eye players.

#3 would be my choice. I think he's the safest bet to at least be an all star, with the chance to be a hall of fame hitter with all the HRs he will rack up. He's not going to hit those projected splits, but with 100 power (assuming training gets maxed out asap), the splits are enough to make him an MVP candidate in most of his prime years I would venture. 

My problem with #5 is that at 22 years old, 59 makeup, relatively low starting splits, low training/medical (this is just an assumption based off context from the rest of the thread) and a health rating in the 60's, a major injury could seriously derail his development. I suppose you could say that with any player, but with the #2 pick, I wouldn't want one major injury potentially ruining that pick. 

#3 is still pretty far from projection, especially in power, which is his his main attribute.
I would not be excited to spend that high of a pick on a guy wiht power in the upper 80's, and splits in the 70's.  A good hitter, but not what you are expecting.  I think that's a real possibility.

For some reason I thought that was 85 current power. I think that changes things then as there's a possibility he doesn't hit 100

Well #3 went 1st in the draft.. I ended up with #2 which was probably the safest pick.. 

Given 1st year budget, I am happy to get #5