D3, Season 67 Topic

And with the rollover and NBA draft taking place, we've started a new season in Rupp. Here's your thread!

A few observations on the switchover:

-- barney1974 is gone after 12 solid seasons at Lynchburg, the last 7 producing NT appearances. The program has been picked up by googs04, a former D1 coach with seven NT appearances making his first return to Rupp in nearly 30 seasons. I have no idea if it's an alias or not.

-- After 3 seasons spent building Wisconsin, Superior into a top 25 program (and one that should've gone deeper than one NT round last year IMO), cbryant has cashed in for a higher-paying contract.

-- At Catholic, shineenihs is gone after three postseasons in four years at the helm. Not sure if he's out of the world or moved on someplace.

-- Barring late signup, the North Atlantic will be an all-Sim conference this season.

-- The two power conferences both have berths. There are three open teams in the GNE for the second consecutive season. The University, all-human last season, has two teams on Sim currently (one of them being Stillman, after four seasons under artie40). Obviously, late signups might alter that.

-- In the Upstate, which is down to just one human this season, New York University could be going Sim for the first time since Season 34.

-- Castleton St. and George Fox appear to have the super-class awards for the season. Both will feature rosters with 9 seniors on them this year (meaning in Season 68, you'll read about both in the blowout alert section...)

I'm sure I probably missed out on some moves and folks can chime in if they see something significant in their league that I didn't mention above. It'll give us something to talk about for a bit :)

6/26/2013 4:04 AM (edited)
The IAC remains at two teams.  The fear that Buena Vista exudes is keeping coaches away.

That is all.
6/26/2013 12:27 PM
barney1974 is still with us. He's now at Gustavus Adolphus I noticed this morning.
6/26/2013 12:41 PM
Artie40 was at Centre, not Stillman....
6/26/2013 1:36 PM
Posted by brianxavier on 6/26/2013 1:36:00 PM (view original):
Artie40 was at Centre, not Stillman....
Whoops...good catch. Got my team cards backwards!
6/26/2013 3:31 PM
League predictions

ASC -- #2 Texas Lutheran (blapo21) is coming off a Sweet 16 appearance and 25 wins last season and begins this year with three players rated 700+, one of them a junior. This isn't the only elite team in the ASC this season, but it's the one the other 11 schools will be chasing.
Capital -- #17 St. Mary's (tardhesticle) is where the discussion begins and ends this season. St. Mary's is the only school sporting a rating over 500 and will likely be a 16-0 at season's end. Assuming they do that, St. Mary's could make its first NT appearance since Season 50.
Centennial -- #3 Ursinus (barjaz) hasn't lost a conference game in five seasons, which has to be approaching some sort of record in the Rupp world I would think. There's little reason to think it won't be six straight at year's end.
CUNY -- From a purely math standpoint, John Jay might be the best in the league, but the human elements are close enough that I think they can tip the scales. My call is Staten Island (scuba1253), building on a 24-win season and looking for his first NT trip in four years at the helm.
CCIW -- My call is for Martin Luther (kgilman18) to edge out Illinois Wesleyan and Northland in what should be a spirited three-school chase this season.
Coast -- Wentworth (chewchad) is young this season, but who else can you call in this league besides this juggernaut program?
Commonwealth -- #11 Susquehanna (zeuspole) will get the better of Penn St. Altoona this season as the two perennial powers are again at the head of the pack.
Empire -- Vassar (theriddler) is in reload mode, but should have enough bullets in the chamber to hold off Medaille, Utica and Union, all of whom should be tripping over each other in the race for next-best.
Freedom -- Those Mellon-heads from Carnegie Mellon will be looking to get simmed to the NT for a second-straight year. Coming off 22 wins last season and slightly better than King's or Drew, also sims.
GNE -- Guess who's back...back again...yep, it's #10 Johnson & Wales (spasticity) who has made the changeover to the fastbreak and is poised to resume his national title hunting this season. The GNE is as topheavy as they come with what I believe are five sound teams..
Heartland -- Manchester simmed its way to a 24-win season and the league title last year. I don't know about 24 wins again, but I'll say they're slightly above a pool of four other teams that could also contend.
Iowa -- #5 Buena Vista (westcoast22) continues to look good on the national scene and we'll give them the edge ahead of a powerful Simpson team and a Cornell squad that might be the toughest Sim-controlled team in Rupp this season.
Little East -- UMass, Dartmouth (pureh21) hasn't been to the NT since docwooden took them to the Final Four four seasons ago. I'm going to say they've got the edge in this league, but the next three in the rankings can all make a push to contend.
Michigan -- What a fun league this is going to be as the top three teams look insanely balanced in terms of strength. I'll call #24 Eureka (usjgt) by the thinnest of margins ahead of higher-ranked Kalamazoo and Calvin. It's the 36th season for usjgt at the helm of the program.
Midwest -- Beloit hasn't had a human owner since Season 50 has only been to the NT once in that time, but they're building off a 20-win season and look better than the other equally-simmed contenders.
Minnesota -- #13 Hamline (foofighter13) is stacked and looks ready to build on 25 wins from last season.
NESCAC -- Connecticut (rwright) hasn't made it out of the first round of the NT for five straight seasons and would love to change that. First thing's first, win the league, which they look slightly better than Tufts to do.
New Jersey -- The top five teams in the ratings for this league can all make a run at it. Montclair St (bigpapamatt) gets my call in what could be a photo finish. From a 2-25 start, matt's built the program to back-to-back 20+ win campaigns. He's looking for NT no. 1 though.
N. Atlantic -- Superclass Sim Castleton St. has nine seniors off a 27-win roster from a year ago. They should cruise in an all-Sim conference.
NCAC -- Another league with nice balance as I dug six teams deep into it. Wittenberg (darnoc29099) gets my nod in a league where the first to 12 wins might take a title.
Norhtwest -- Willamette (bullman17) still looks like the best of the bunch to me. Great depth in this league.
Ohio -- John Carroll (whit6r) is carrying two walk-ons, but will still carry this league. Nobody else begins over 500 in team rating.
ODAC -- Lynchburg (googs04) changes owners this season, but is still the team to chase. Keep an eye on Virginia Wesleyan, which is playing small ball for robbman21.
Penn -- Babson is simmed, but starts the year as the only team over 500 in the league. We'll see if that's enough.
Skyline -- It's a little odd to see US Merchant Marines (lynchmob1414) unranked to start a season. That might change as they fight Old Westbury and SUNY Maritime down the league slate.
So. Cal. -- #16 Whittier (windixies) with the nod ahead of Colorado. Eastbay may have dropped off a smidge so the normal three-team chase might be down to two-way for this season.
St. Louis -- #8 Webster (mschulte24) is going for its fourth consecutive 16-0 league season. It'll take a creative imagination not to see them pulling it off.
SUNY -- The human factor gets SUNY Cortland (cuck) my nod over an equally-evaluated US Coast Guard team. After a 24-win rookie campaign at the school, let's see what cuck does for an encore.
University -- After back-to-back years as the preseason No. 1, Millsaps gives way. Defending national champ Emory would be a good call. #4 Louisiana (discodave) looks even better. Great conference here, possibly as good if not better than the GNE up top and definitely the best conference 1-12 in Rupp this season.
Upstate -- New York U. (lotsabooze) was saved from its first Sim-coached season in 33 years. Looks like booze's first season in Rupp, but he's in two other worlds so he should be able to pilot NYU to glory this year. Besides, who can resist a coach named after copious amounts of alcohol?
USA South -- Another deep league, but the shark in the waters is #7 Shenandoah (zagman73) who will have to hold off N. Carolina Wesleyan for the chase to the top.
Wisconsin -- Wisconsin-Superior (thbro) has an interesting situation. They are the preseason #1 team in the land. And they're being run by a user name that's a complete rookie to HD. Maybe it's an alias, maybe it's the mother of all first-time grabs for a school. Wisconsin-Oshkosh will be poised to move past should the learning curve prove too steep.

Overall Afterthought -- Holy crow are there a lot of stacked teams in Rupp this season!! I'll hold off calling it the overall best year since I started the divisional threads until I can do more analysis, but there are A LOT of teams that are at/above my normal rating cutoff for consideration into the Way-Too-Early Final Four.
7/2/2013 4:46 AM (edited)
Here are my tourney predictions for season 67.  I added in predicted wins in conference and overall.  The last four teams out were Rhodes, Old Westbury, Christopher Newport, and Simpson.

Team Conference Wins Conf Wins Rating Conf Rank Overall Rank NT Seed
Susquehanna CC 23.73 15.49 61.91 1 1 1 1
Wisconsin, Superior Wisconsin 24.06 15.59 61.74 1 2 1 1
Hardin-Simmons ASC 22.39 14.49 60 2 3 1 1
Emory University 22.49 13.61 59.93 1 4 1 1
Texas Lutheran ASC 22.79 14.87 59.85 1 5 1 2
Johnson and Wales Great NE 20.13 13.4 59.39 1 6 1 2
Shenandoah USA South 22.06 13.1 59.09 1 7 1 2
Trinity (TX) University 20.71 12.29 59.02 2 8 1 2
Newbury Great NE 21.17 12.65 59.01 2 9 1 3
N. Carolina Wesleyan USA South 20.27 12.86 58.78 2 10 1 3
Rivier Great NE 20.07 12.41 58.7 4 11 1 3
Webster St. Louis 23.11 15.75 58.64 1 12 1 3
Louisiana University 19.69 11.62 58.43 3 13 1 4
Occidental S. Cal. 24.73 14.91 58.3 1 14 1 4
Emmanuel Great NE 20.41 12.44 58.11 3 15 1 4
Wisconsin, Oshkosh Wisconsin 23.62 14.77 58.09 2 16 1 4
Penn St. Altoona CC 20.46 13.9 58.04 2 17 1 5
Buena Vista Iowa IAC 22.88 15.3 57.83 1 18 1 5
Willamette Northwest 23.48 14.65 57.78 1 19 1 5
Colorado S. Cal. 21.8 14.08 57.57 2 20 1 5
Piedmont USA South 16.94 10.5 56.53 4 21 1 6
Austin ASC 19.49 11.97 56.51 3 22 1 6
Southwestern University 15.8 9.03 56.38 4 23 1 6
Palm Beach Atlantic USA South 18.69 10.35 56.33 5 24 1 6
Eureka Michigan 21.49 14.3 56.3 1 25 1 7
Ursinus Centennial 21.52 15.18 56 1 26 1 7
Calvin Michigan 21.49 13.94 55.87 2 27 1 7
Wittenberg N. Coast 20.52 13.84 55.76 1 28 1 7
Hamline Minn. IAC 24.12 15.5 55.59 1 29 1 8
Millsaps University 15.7 8.51 55.51 5 30 1 8
S. Vermont Great NE 15.07 8.64 55.44 5 31 1 8
St. Mary's of Maryland Capital 24.53 15.26 55.4 1 32 1 8
Wentworth Tech. Coast 22.14 15.34 55.34 1 33 1 9
Oglethorpe USA South 16.55 8.96 55.15 7 34 1 9
Stillman University 15.15 7.37 55.12 6 35 1 9
Ozarks University 14.87 7.18 54.95 7 36 1 9
Lynchburg ODAC 19.88 15.1 54.79 1 37 1 10
Hiram N. Coast 20.61 13.12 54.6 2 38 1 10
Whittier S. Cal. 17.28 11.75 54.56 3 39 1 10
Greensboro USA South 16.83 10.75 54.54 3 40 1 10
Centre University 14.91 7 54.35 8 41 1 11
Redlands S. Cal. 19.7 11.52 54.33 4 42 1 11
New York U. Upstate 22.2 13.93 54.32 1 43 1 11
Suffolk Great NE 13.83 7.29 54.24 7 44 1 11
George Fox Northwest 19.39 13.06 54.13 2 45 1 12
U.S. Merchant Marines Skyline 17.31 13.64 54.06 1 46 1 12
Chapman Northwest 20.67 11.67 54.05 3 47 1 12
John Carroll Ohio 18.8 14.64 54.01 1 48 1 12
W. New England Great NE 15.58 6.98 53.96 8 49 1 13
Sewanee University 14.11 6.29 53.79 9 50 1 13
Concordia, Austin ASC 17.79 9.37 53.71 5 51 1 13
E. Oregon Northwest 16.63 11.41 53.69 4 52 1 13
Beloit Midwest 22.06 14.59 52.76 1 65 1 14
SUNY Cortland SUNYAC 21.8 13.48 52.57 1 67 1 14
UMass, Dartmouth Little E. 17.13 12.94 52.49 1 70 1 14
Castleton St. N.Atlantic 18.02 13.77 52.46 1 72 1 14
Tufts NESCAC 21.26 13.98 52.32 1 73 1 15
Kean New Jersey 20.63 12.44 52.29 1 75 1 15
John Jay CUNY 20.62 13.48 52.04 1 80 1 15
Vassar Empire 8 19.96 12.57 51.7 1 83 1 15
Northland CCIW 16.45 12.44 51.37 1 90 1 16
Manchester Heartland 14.46 11.24 50.84 1 102 1 16
Eastern U. Penn. 20.28 12.17 50.21 1 116 1 16
Drew Freedom 15.16 10.88 48.86 1 157 1 16
7/2/2013 12:03 PM
The following link should take you to a couple of spreadsheets containing the ratings and predicted wins for all of the teams as well as the rosters for all D3 teams.

7/2/2013 12:12 PM
Wow.  with 6 freshmen and 3 sophmores, very surprised to see Millsaps rated that high.  If I can make the NT I'll be happy. 

Do wins take into consideration the teams we play I assume?  Impressive work bullman.
7/2/2013 5:13 PM
Yes, wins are based on the schedule each team is playing.  That is why there are a few teams with a lower ranking predicted to finish ahead of another team in the conference race -- easier schedule.

Keep in mind that this does not take IQ into account, if it did you would probably be rated lower with all of the lower classmen that are on your team.
7/2/2013 5:25 PM
Love seeing the conferences where we disagree on winners bullman. It's like buying multiple football magazines every summer to see what each one has to say about the season ahead. (something I'm very guilty of doing...)
7/2/2013 8:00 PM
What are your thoughts on Occidental?  I have them winning the S. Cal conference and as the 14th highest ranked team overall, yet they are not even in the "other receiving votes" in the top 25.
7/3/2013 10:00 AM
Posted by bullman17 on 7/3/2013 10:00:00 AM (view original):
What are your thoughts on Occidental?  I have them winning the S. Cal conference and as the 14th highest ranked team overall, yet they are not even in the "other receiving votes" in the top 25.
I have them as the No. 3 team in that league behind Whittier and Colorado, but I don't calculate an overall record like you do and obviously they'll benefit in that regard by being in the opposite division from the two aforementioned schools plus CSU Eastbay, who could all round-robin each other again like they did a season ago. My gut would say 14 is way too high...the Ath/Spd/Def triplet is good, but the 20 LP is going to harm against high defensive teams I suspect.
7/3/2013 10:29 AM
Posted by bullman17 on 7/3/2013 10:00:00 AM (view original):
What are your thoughts on Occidental?  I have them winning the S. Cal conference and as the 14th highest ranked team overall, yet they are not even in the "other receiving votes" in the top 25.
IMO you have them a little too high.  For a Zone team, the Reb is a weakness.  The Def is a little light and shot blocking is very weak for a Zone.  The offense is fairly one-dimensional with a couple Per threats but nothing down low.  Their strongest attribute might be the 78 ST, but that's sort of wasted in a Zone.

I hope that doesn't sound too critical..they're certainly a solid team and it's only their coach's 2nd season.  But I see them as a fringe NT team right now personally.
7/3/2013 10:34 AM
btw bullman, thanks again for posting your model results.  Just out of curiosity, have you tried to incorporate IQ into it?  Seems like it would be predictive, though I guess the problem is how to weight it along with ratings.  Teams that run multiple sets might make it difficult too.
7/3/2013 12:08 PM
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