D3, Season 67 Topic

IQ is on the agenda.  It is going to take a little work because it is on a different tab from the player ratings and I am going to have to make some assumptions about what offense and defense a team runs because it is not available anywhere that I can get to.  I will probably assume the offense and defense based upon which one has the most A ratings which should work unless a team is switching.

One thing that I discovered when adding predicted wins and losses into it is that if you really want to screw your team up, set your fatigue levels to Very Tired or Foul Trouble Only.  I was comparing my predictions with an almost completed season in Smith and found a team that was winless in conference and won only two or three overall that was supposed to be about a .500 ball club.  It turns out that the team is controlled by a new human player that is playing his starters 35+ minutes per game.
7/3/2013 1:18 PM
Millsaps last year was weak in LP and I wondered how that would impact things.  I think the team was very, very good - probably a final four team had I not met an equally good opponent in the second round (Whittier - who went to the final four).

Anyhow - I bring this up because I have wondered lately about how much LP matters. 

I tend to look at my team as having scorers or not - and then do they score from 3 pointers vs. 2 pointers --- who actually does the scoring shouldn't matter I am thinking.... big guy, guard, whatever....  I think I have 4 guards last year that had really high skills to score both inside and outside.  I only had one big that could score inside (and that only about 7-9 points/game).

I figure if I can keep a balance of 2 point shots vs. 3 point shots then I can keep the defense honest in terms of +/- perimeter settings.

Obviously if you have a forward that can score well inside the 3 point line - that's great.  But whether they do it from the guard position or SF, or forward - does it really matter?  Against a man-2-man defense it may limit options because you would not be able exploit a weak defender on the front line - but that logic really applies to all positions that can't score vs. M2M defense.

My point is --- does it really matter if you have good LP, assuming you have good scorers elsewhere?  I figure I need at least 3-4 decent scoring threats (1-2 off bench, at least 2 starters). 

7/3/2013 1:22 PM
I don't value LP in my calculations nearly as much as a lot of people do, I think.  I have REB and ATH valued much higher.  

At the end of last season I published the highest efficiency scorers in D3 and all of them were three point shooters.  I also published the team leaders in points per possession offense and defense and found that almost all of the defense leaders were press teams because of the number of turnovers they create.  I am thinking that you could design a team that ran full court press, had two or three guys in the game at all times that are ace three point shooters along with a couple of athletic rebounding types and have a pretty darned good team.

7/3/2013 1:50 PM
Posted by bullman17 on 7/3/2013 1:50:00 PM (view original):
I don't value LP in my calculations nearly as much as a lot of people do, I think.  I have REB and ATH valued much higher.  

At the end of last season I published the highest efficiency scorers in D3 and all of them were three point shooters.  I also published the team leaders in points per possession offense and defense and found that almost all of the defense leaders were press teams because of the number of turnovers they create.  I am thinking that you could design a team that ran full court press, had two or three guys in the game at all times that are ace three point shooters along with a couple of athletic rebounding types and have a pretty darned good team.

that was basically Millsaps the last 3 years.... I never could find good LP scorers.... almost won a title that way.  didn't do it on purpose - but ended up with no LP options pretty much.

it's hard to find enough good guards though - as I found out this recruiting season.  probably my worst effort in a long time.....
7/3/2013 2:33 PM
Just from casual observation, I would say LP is vastly more important to offensive success in Triangle than in any other set.  Or rather, having a legit LP threat (70+ ?) seems to make the offense work.  Just having a bunch of LP in the guards that makes the team average respectable doesn't accomplish the same thing.  I haven't noticed the same effect in other sets, but again this is just observation.

Occidental does run Motion, though, so maybe their lack of LP won't be as big an issue as I thought at first glance.
7/3/2013 3:36 PM
My gut instinct says that you and Rednu are probably right about Occidental.  I am going to keep my eye on them this season, I am interested to see how they do.
7/3/2013 4:31 PM
Ahhhh, gotta love that new season smell.  Everyone is undefeated and has a chance at a perfect season, enjoy the optimism while it lasts.  Let's dive in to another non-conference slate.  Good luck everyone...

#11 Susquehanna (0-0)(zeuspole) at #10 Johnson and Wales (0-0)(spasticity)
The first game of the night this season is an almost top ten battle as Susquehanna bravely ventures into the den of spider monkeys at J&W.  Should be an exciting game and since these two coaches are tied at 8-8 in head-to-head, one of them will have overall series bragging rights.  Hmmmm, head-to-head record is 8-8.... spiders have 8 legs.... coincidence?  Yeah, probably.  But still.  Oh, in addition rednu has picked both of these teams in his final four predictions.  Sounds like a solid season opener to me.

Also considered: #1 Wisconsin Superior at #18 Southwestern, #12 Penn St. Altoona at #20 North Carolina Wesleyan, Rivier at #3 Ursinus, and #5 Buena Vista at Lynchburg

Sim blowout watch: Hamilton is getting a big 74 points while hosting #4 Louisiana and Lasell is right behind as a 73 point home dog against the defending national champ #6 Emory.
7/3/2013 6:06 PM (edited)
Way-Too-Early Final Four

Hopefully all the principles had their redshirts in and accepted by the time I started crushing the numbers and doing comparisons for adjusted attributes and the like. As always, these are in no particular order except for alphabetical.

Emory (phalla, Preseason No. 6, 28-9 last season, National Champion) -- Once again, I have a situation where I didn't pick a team to win its conference that subsequently turns around and grades out in the top four when compared among the other elite squads of the world and redshirt players are removed from the equation. The defending champs have great upperclass representation with 8 juniors/seniors on the roster. A started adjusted Ath/Spd/Def of 61-52-59 is solid and low-to-mid 40s to begin in BH-Pass will keep turnovers down.

Johnson and Wales (spasticity, No. 10, 24-8, Sweet 16) --
The GNE representative in this year's WTEFF. Rupp's longtime juggernaut is in year 3 of a shift to the fast break and should be ready to ride it back toward the top of the charts. The "big three" stat categories are all in the lower 50s and, aside from possibly being a shade light in the rebounding department, there's not really a glaring weakness that I can see. Like Emory, solid ball handling and passing will make turnovers harder to create and the largest stable of players rated 600+ among Rupp's top teams signals little dropoff in ability.

Susquehanna (zeuspole, No. 11, 28-4, Sweet 16) --
This is a blue collar team. Zeuspole doesn't have any single super-flashy player. He's just going to kill folks with good, solid depth with nine upperclass players and nine players who rate 560 or higher overall. 59/53/57 in the big three categories and 48-43 in BH and Passing. The LP value of 23 is a touch low and concerning to a degree, but, oh, that depth, that depth, that depth. Combine it with zeus' consistently solid coaching ability and this group will be a force to be reckoned with in Season 67.

Texas Lutheran (blapo21, No. 2, 25-6, Sweet 16) -- When I was doing the conference picks, Texas Lutheran jumped out immediately and I was tempted to think they would dominate this season. Having sized up the rest of Rupp, I'll assure everyone that it isn't a runaway, but TL will likely be among the last teams standing. An adjusted Ath score in the 60s, three players beginning the year at 700+ (nobody else I looked at had more than 1), Top 25 speed and defense and an LP score that would fit in better at D2. The only noted weakness might come from a merely average passing score, but TL's athleticism should have it blowing past opponents, so who needs to pass the ball?

Others strongly considered -- Wisconsin-Superior, Ursinus, Louisiana, Shenandoah, Webster, Newbury, Austin, Suffolk and North Carolina Wesleyan.
7/3/2013 5:39 PM
Last Night
#4 Susquehanna 92   Johnson and Wales 82
Susquehanna jumped out to a big lead early but J&W was able to climb back in later in the first half to pull within 6 at the break.  In the second half it was more of the same with Susquehanna opening up the lead a bit but J&W fighting back to narrow the gap and eventually tie the game at 76 with three and a half minutes to play.  But three straight turnovers doomed J&W and Susquehanna was able to make its free throws to close out the win.  Susquehanna and zeuspole were led by Stanley Cobb's big 28 points and move up to #4 in the rankings.  J&W and spasticity fall down into the others receiving votes section.

Also considered: #1 Wisconsin Superior defended their top ranking impressively on the road by taking care of Southwestern 88-65, #7 North Carolina Wesleyan cruised past Penn St Altoona 79-64, #3 Ursinus handled Rivier 76-62, and #21 Lynchburg moves into the rankings by holding on late against Buena Vista 76-68.

Sim blowout watch: Hamilton easily covered the spread against #15 Louisiana 51-72 as did Lasell vs. #19 Emory 48-80.

#5 Shenandoah (1-0)(zagman73) at #11 Suffolk (1-0)(chichisteve)
A full six games between ranked opponents tonight so there's plenty to choose from but I'm going with our second straight almost top ten battle.  Both teams opened with solid wins in week one and now are looking to defend their high rankings.  This is the first meeting between these two coaches and it should be a good one.

Also considered: #1 Wisconsin Superior at #20 George Fox, #4 Susquehanna at #8 Hardin-Simmons, #21 Lynchburg at #6 Newbury, #22 Emmanuel at #12 Trinity, and #17 Webster at #23 Colorado

Sim blowout watch: Wabash is getting 44 points at home against #19 Emory and Marian is a 40 point road dog at #3 Ursinus.
7/4/2013 10:21 AM
Wow -- there's going to be a rating shakeup tonight regardless of what happens with that many games between ranked teams.
7/4/2013 5:52 PM
Sorry this one is late, I was out all day volunteering in a beer tent and then eating ribs.  That's a good day.

Last Night
#4 Shenandoah 73   Suffolk 61
Suffolk held the lead for most of the first half and went into the break with a 4 point lead, but Shenandoah kept it close in the second half until ripping of a 19-3 run starting with over five minutes left to put Suffolk on the ropes.  Shenandoah and zagman had three starters in double figures and move up one spot in the rankings with this win.  Suffolk and chichisteve were led by William Hill's 16 points and with the loss drop down into the others receiving votes section.

Also considered: #1 Wisconsin Superior sunk a fadeaway jumper with two seconds left to nip George Fox 76-74, #5 Hardin-Simmons handled #22 Susquehanna 71-56, #6 Newbury made enough free throws for a 63-60 victory over Lynchburg, #7 Trinity bested Emmanuel 60-44, and #14 Colorado edged Webster 70-65.

Sim blowout watch: Wabash stayed within 10 against #25 Emory 67-77 and Marian didn't do as well but still covered at #3 Ursinus 38-66.

#11 Eureka (2-0)(usjg) at #24 East Oregon (2-0)(ldhope)
A solid matchup between undefeated ranked teams and another where the coaches are tied at 8 in their head-to-head record.  Also, I have to say that it's nice seeing E. Oregon in the rankings since I coached them in another world for a couple years, go Mountaineers!

Also considered: #3 Ursinus at #22 Susquehanna, #5 Hardin-Simmons at Piedmont, and #12 Louisiana at Mount St. Mary

Sim blowout watch: Chestnut Hill is getting 53 points at home against #16 Calvin and Lehman College is a 51 home dog hosting #21 Wisconsin Oshkosh
7/5/2013 11:40 PM
Last Night
#8 Eureka 80   East Oregon 63
It took Eureka over four minutes to get on the board but once they did they didn't stop, opening up a 14 point lead at the half.  They were able to maintain that lead all through the second half and cruised to a 17 point victory.  Eureka and usjg had two players in the 20's, led by Aaron St. Thomas pouring in 26 off the bench.  Eureka also moved up three spots in the rankings after the win while E. Oregon and ldhope fall out of the top 25.

Also considered: #2 Ursinus mounted a big second half comeback and held on for the 57-54 victory over Susquehanna, #22 Piedmont moved into the rankings thanks to a 68-64 upset over #15 Hardin-Simmons, and #11 Louisiana got by Mount St. Mary 75-70.

Sim blowout watch: Chestnut Hill kept it close against #20 Calvin 65-82 and Lehman College did not keep it close against Wisconsin Oshkosh 57-88.

#11 Louisiana (3-0)(discodave) at Ohio Wesleyan (2-1)(otownaron)
Louisiana travels to Ohio to defend their early undefeated ranking and try to move up into the top ten.  Ohio Wesleyan were nearly in the rankings in the preseason and a win here would move them right back up.  This is the first meeting between these two coaches and the visitors are an 8 point favorite.

Also considered: Lynchburg at #3 Texas Lutheran, #4 North Carolina Wesleyan at Suffolk, and Concordia at #7 Shenandoah

Sim blowout watch: St. John Fisher is getting a hefty 57 points at home against #9 Oglethorpe while Grinnell is a 56 point road dog at #13 St. Mary's.
7/6/2013 2:53 PM
Anyone interested in joining the Concordia Invitational? We are looking for one more team!
7/6/2013 4:56 PM
Last Night
#9 Louisiana 91   Ohio Wesleyan 90
It took an extra five minutes but Louisiana escaped Ohio with a slim one point road victory.  After keeping it close all game, OWes got a clutch 3 pointer from George Dorado with four seconds left in regulation to tie the game and send it to overtime.  The extra session was back and forth but it ended with the home fans nearly rioting after a foul was called on OWes' James Schmidt with just a second on the clock.  Louisiana's Ryan Saragosa clanked the first shot but gathered himself and managed to sink the second to give his team the hard-fought win.  Louisiana and discodave had four starters in double figures and got bumped up two spots in the rankings with the victory.  OWes and otownaron were led by regulation hero George Dorado and his 25 points.

Also considered: #3 Texas Lutheran handled Lynchburg 79-60, #4 North Carolina Wesleyan cruised past Suffolk 68-48, and #5 Shenandoah downed Concordia 73-58.

Sim blowout watch: St. John Fisher avoided their first win of the season, falling to #14 Oglethorpe 64-86 and Grinnell lost by a similar margin to #15 St. Mary's 61-80.

Johnson and Wales (2-2)(spasticity) at #1 Wisconsin Superior (4-0)(thbro)
I feel like I've been ignoring our top ranked team so far, but with four straight victories to open the season they deserve some attention.  Wisconsin Superior and first year coach thbro return to campus for their home opener after four road wins.  To keep their #1 ranking they'll need to fend off the spider monkeys of Johnson and Wales who continue their difficult non-conference schedule by traveling to another ranked opponent.

Also considered: Sewanee at #4 North Carolina Wesleyan, #12 Hardin-Simmons at Ohio Wesleyan, #16 Colorado at Wentworth Tech, and Susquehanna at #24 Webster

Sim blowout watch: Bard is getting 57 points at home against #9 Louisiana and St. John Fisher makes a second straight appearance as a home dog, this time getting 45 hosting #22 Southwestern.

7/7/2013 4:25 PM
Last Night
#25 Johnson and Wales 78   #5 Wisconsin Superior 76
Well, I either seriously jinxed Wisconsin Superior last night or luckily caught them just before they fell out of the top spot in the rankings.  In a close game throughout, J&W was able to build a decent lead half-way through the second half only to see Superior cut the margin to just 3 with about two minutes left in the game.  The final minute saw a free throw brick fest with both teams going 4 of 10 from the line, the most painful being two misses by Superior with three seconds left that would've tied the game.  With the upset win, J&W and spasticity move up into the rankings at #25 while Wisconsin Superior and thbro suffer their first loss of the season and slip down to #5.

Also considered: New #1 North Carolina Wesleyan took over the top spot after a solid win over Sewanee 71-58, #9 Hardin-Simmons handled Ohio Wesleyan 83-68, Wentworth Tech took down #23 Colorado 75-69, and #21 Susquehanna cruised past Webster 72-56.

Sim blowout watch: Bard only lost by 39 to #14 Louisiana 55-94 while St. John Fisher covered again against #22 Southwestern 78-102.

#1 North Carolina Wesleyan (5-0)(nastynick60) at #20 South Vermont (5-0)(funngun10)
Our new top ranked team in the nation gets a challenging road test when they visit also-undefeated South Vermont.  nastynick has lost the two previous meetings between these two coaches but his team is favored by 6 points in this one.

Also considered: #25 Johnson and Wales at #3 Texas Lutheran, #14 Louisiana at #12 Newbury, Austin at #5 Wisconsin Superior, Buena Vista at #11 Hamline, and #18 Piedmont at Emory

Sim blowout watch: Wisconsin Lutheran is getting a big 73 points when the host #17 Occidental and SUNY Potsdam is a 51 point road dog against #15 St. Mary's.
7/8/2013 1:24 PM
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D3, Season 67 Topic

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