So when I was preparing for the Draft, I saw a real drop-off after my eighth-ranked prospect.  Since I had the 33rd overall pick, I was worried that my first-rounder might cross that threshold, so I stuck Kirby Howard at #9, hoping to at least pull something reasonable the following season as a comp.


Well, Kirby, who was initially represented by his mother, dropped her in order to represent himself and subsequently accepted my $8mil tender.  What?!?  I thought the prospects represented by their mothers were guaranteed to refuse the offer?  Now I have shot myself in the foot as regards the IFA market, and all I have to show for it is a very expensive AAA pitcher.  Uggh.

ouch

Very unlucky. 

My impression is that they sign less than 1-5% of the time; this is the 3rd or 4th I've seen sign (the first I've seen take the offer the first time).

I assume you're not in the "MORE RANDOMNESS!!!" camp.

You should really make sure they are at least passable MLers when you do that.

I do.

You can't ever assume that anything in this game is a "guarantee".

Sucks for you, but maybe lesson learned for others.

And, what iain said.

Ouch.. $8m for a bum at #94 pick

I try it once in awhile. I've had one sign and probably ten that haven't signed.

I feel especially dumb because I actually signed the guy as a second-round pick.  Even when there's risk involved, I can imagine a situation where taking the gamble on securing a type-D on a first-rounder is worthwhile.  But not a 2nd-rounder.  I just got greedy.

I've made that same mistake, but with a bigger gamble...the #1 overall.  Set my franchise back probably 2 seasons.  Won't.  Happen.  Again.  Ever...

That's what happens when you game the system.

Does this strategy ever work? Yes, I'm kinda new. You don't like this draft crop and your pick, so you deliberately draft someone who won't sign hoping to get a better player with next year's comp pick.

I don't see a lot of threads saying, did it and got a great player. Confirmation, anyone?

And yes, I have been happy with that extra pick in the past.

Alright.  Now, that sounds like an application that makes sense.