Posted by professor17 on 8/30/2013 9:47:00 AM (view original):
Posted by kmasonbx1 on 8/30/2013 8:47:00 AM (view original):
10-17 for a sim AI in a BCS conference is wishful thinking. There aren't many instances when a coach leaves a BCS school in such good shape that it can get a top 100 RPI without a user coach and then that team stays sim for 2 seasons. I still think it's a bad idea to schedule BCS sims, because it will kill your SOS and they won't have a helpful RPI.
No, it doesn't happen all that often, but it does happen occassionally, which is why I said you have to be very selective about it. I'm not saying to schedule any old BCS sim. I'm saying you've got to be smart about it, and that if you guess wrong, it doesn't hurt to the degree it did when RPI was the controlling factor in seeding/selection. In the last several seasons in Phelan we've had the following results from teams that were in the their 2nd consecutive season of Sim control:
Virginia: 12-17, 63 RPI
NC State: 14-15, 85 RPI
Florida St.: 17-14, 45 RPI
Ohio St: 21-9, 20 RPI
All of those would have been considered good quality wins.
There were a few others with RPI's in the 110-140 range, which although not quality wins, are not bad ones, either, and wouldn't hurt you.
that's assuming you win. if these teams beat other BCS teams, not just a couple of them, you can lose, unless you have a great team (by can lose i mean you aren't the 90-95% plus favorite you need to be to play sims, assuming you are at least a NT quality team). now, if your team is that good - there are FAR better opponents to play.
and i disagree it doesn't hurt you. relative to what? relative to the decisions of a smart coach, the guy you should be considering your competition? you bet your *** it does. if a game isnt helping you, its hurting you, its that simple. i know what you are saying, its not going to kill your numbers like a really ****** opponent will. but that doesnt mean its not hurting you relative to the guys who matter.
when i teach people about scheduling in d1, literally, i use the exact same example *every time* as an example of something that is terrible to do, in contrast to the cleverly chosen opponents i am pushing them to schedule. any guesses? i think you only need one :) i tell d2/d3 guys i mentor the exact same thing, except instead of BCS sims, its top conference sims. when you play sims, there is a very simple rule that gets you as far as you need to go - maximize record relative to quality. period. you just cant do any worse by that metric than scheduling a BCS sim. specific examples? sure, they exist, but in general, thats a pretty golden rule, in my book.
with the advent of team projection report, i guess RPI of the opponent does matter - but you are generally not going to be looking for sims to get your record vs top X rpi stats in. BCS sims are less horrible because they have a shot of getting in the top 100 rpi but still, there are way more efficient ways to get those wins.
8/30/2013 12:06 PM (edited)