Posted by MikeT23 on 9/6/2013 10:34:00 AM (view original):
Is it opportunities that drives your sample size? If so, why does a SS need the same amount of seasons as a RF?
Of course it's opportunities, what the **** else would it be?
There is no hard number. Any stat becomes more reliable when the sample gets larger. You can draw a conclusion from a players batting average after 300 plate appearances, but his true talent level is likely to vary signigicantly. You get a better idea at 600 plate appearances, but the year to year correlation is still really low. At 900 plate appearances the true talent level is much easier to discern. But that's roughly a year and a half for batting average and you should still regress it somewhat when making a prediction for the next year.