it would be a minimum of 4 post season misses, from where you are, before you got fired. consider that if you make the jump to BCS, you are going to have to really change the way you play anyway - cant sign the kind of guys you've been signing, you'll get killed in conference. its WAY harder to make the NT from a low end BCS school than from a comfortable mid major. im not sure what that means you should do... on one hand, you need to change things up anyway, so it might be the right time to start trying. on the other hand, you have a good deal of experimenting to do, and its going to be pretty rough when you first get to a BCS school regardless (like it is for most coaches), so you might want to stay to avoid the double whammy.