GUESS 3.0 Formulas - First Look Topic

Posted by noah23 on 10/18/2013 4:26:00 PM (view original):
the hands/LB thing is a head scratcher...for that matter, has anyone seen an LB make an interception? 
I have had tons of interceptions by my outside linebackers on my Westminster teams.  Inside linebackers rarely do anything.
10/22/2013 1:11 PM
Posted by bhazlewood on 10/19/2013 9:03:00 AM (view original):

OK, I've seen people complaining about their eyeballs exploding at some of the ratings, so I guess I better fill in some gaps here. First, let me re-iterate that the ratings are based on MY understanding of how stats are used, based on some conversation with oriole_fan.  He has NEVER given me any "formulas" or game code, so I don't have an "inside track" on the engine. (If I had, my Texas team wouldn't have been 8-5 in beta.)  The weights given to any stat are strictly mine.

SPEED - This is one of the stats I've had a hard time getting a handle on how much weight to put it, across all positions.  I believe it to be a major factor in deep passes, a minor factor in medium passes, and "a" factor in running the ball, although I'm not certain how much.  It was more problematic on defense.  As far as DE go, I  don't believe it's a factor at all, unless there is something in calculating whether a runner gets "around the corner" on outside runs.  It's not used in determining pressure on the QB, as far as I can tell.  I'm trying to confirm this with oriole. For LB in general, because the game uses just "inside" and "outside" (instead of "left, middle, right") for sides of field, the major place speed in real life would be used is somewhat negated.  The DB complaint is ridiculous, since SPD is actually a higher factor in these ratings than my old ratings, and higher than the WIS default ratings used in the 3.0 beta.

TECH - other than QB, TECH gets reduced pretty much across the board in the new ratings.  I was told that Tech is used as an overall modifier (like ATH was in the 1.0 engine) instead of a "check this attribute for success" kind of thing.  I'm pretty sure that a change norbert made when he first started doing the new engine WAY back when.  It's a pretty dramatic change.

I saw a question about Game Instinct for FB, and I agree, I need to make a change there.  I'm thinking STR (-4), BLK (-2), ELU (-2), GI (+8).

Hands on LB was an oversight on my part.  We'll subtract 1 from ATH, STR, TKL, and 2 from GI, and give HND +5

Hands on QB has never been a consideration.  I don't think it's a factor in fumbles, and there's no other place it would be used for a QB.

I think that about covers it for now.  Please ask questions if something doesn't look right.  

Bob, are the edits you describe above already accounted for in your table?
10/22/2013 7:35 PM
No, those need to be added to the table - since I posted them as pictured I'd have to go edit the originals and I'm too lazy for that. 
10/22/2013 7:50 PM
The funny thing is that guess ratings are a good tool, but if you think speed will affect your D line, then edit your formula to have speed. I've always used modified guess formulas based on what I want (or hope my players can) do.
10/22/2013 8:09 PM
Thanks again, bhazlewood, for all the work you do that makes this game more fun for the rest of us.  

One thing that really jumps out at me about your new ratings is that the differences between DE and DT and also between CB and S are much smaller than they used to be.   Are those reduced differences something that the developers have talked about with you?  
10/22/2013 8:55 PM
Since one of my teams rolls tomorrow, I will probably recruit based on the established formulas (V2.0). They can't be too bad. Then see how things shake out after a little while.
10/22/2013 9:25 PM
Posted by ahrens on 10/22/2013 8:09:00 PM (view original):
The funny thing is that guess ratings are a good tool, but if you think speed will affect your D line, then edit your formula to have speed. I've always used modified guess formulas based on what I want (or hope my players can) do.
This will be even more important in 3.0 than ever before, IMO.  Bob's ratings will be a starting point and a measuring stick for most.  However, With all these various position roles, individual coaches will need to make significant adjustments to these formulas to get the players in the roles they want for the type of formations/plays they want to run.

I'm actually liking this at the moment.  Just picked up a team in Bryant to test things out....we shall see when games actually start.
10/24/2013 6:14 PM
so speed means very little on the lines....i have made a lot of TE to OL & LB to DE conversions & have been fairly successful at the upper Ball State squad is loaded with those conversions. Am i screwed here?
10/24/2013 8:32 PM
If you look at the default WIS ratings, speed DOES matter for defensive lineman.

Oriole hasn't read, much less responded to, any of the correspondence I've sent in the last nine days asking for clarification on DL speed and the big jumps in STR/TKL for defensive backs..  
10/24/2013 8:41 PM
i should have played the beta.....sigh
10/24/2013 8:46 PM
any thoughts on how these multiplying factors translate to different practice times? speed on DL, no elusiveness on all strength on DB.....should i be minimizing that minutes wise as well or can you "over-do" strength & blk/tkl times for example.......hopefully that relates to this thread, lol
10/24/2013 10:29 PM
Hey Bob, I for one love your ratings and have used them often when recruiting through the years. Sorry I am weighing in on this late, but I just had two defensive linemen set the top and No. 6 all-time sack marks in the Carpenter Beta world. Granted these are D-I elite guys, but here are their key attributes.

DL lineman with 39 credited sacks (if you take game by game totals, it was actually more than 50 but what happens in the game box doesn't equate to what the stats tab has).   Ath -84, Speed 48, Strength 93, Tackle 92, GI 91, E 66, Tech 72..... DL No. 2 credited with 27 sacks... Athl 69, Speed 54, Strength 81, Tackle 92, GI 84, El. 51, Tech 81.

I would say that you are correct that GI and Athleticism are keys, but it appears that Speed and Elusiveness are still factors.

And when I recruited my Beta team, I used your old ratings to choose players and I just won my first national (albeit Beta) title. So I don't think your old ratings need much of an adjustment.

Again Bob, can't express my appreciation for all that you do for this game on your own time and dime.
10/25/2013 12:07 PM
I'm going to make a few adjustments and should have the updated formula's posted tonight.  I'll also try to format them for Yatzr's recruiting tool so you can copy and paste into that VERY EXCELLENT AND WELL WORTH SUPPORTING WITH A DONATION application.

Then after a couple of months of play under the new engine, we can re-evaluate.
10/25/2013 12:48 PM
i too am a Guess ratings disciple & look forward to trying to figuring out the new formulas, kind of exciting
10/25/2013 1:11 PM
Imported the new formulas in Yatzr for Yost/Ball State for tomorrow for kicks just now......OL with the heavy blk/str factors has them showing up at 80pts & FB enormous too.....going to take some getting used the way i used a combo/avg of the WIS/Guess Bob posted
10/25/2013 10:35 PM
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GUESS 3.0 Formulas - First Look Topic

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