Posted by jwynkoop2424 on 11/27/2013 2:19:00 PM (view original):
There are always going to be exceptions to the rule. I said it was a soft rule. Obviously it would not apply to a player of Grover Hernandez's stature (complete stud!) But for the majority of players, I constantly see players come up and there overall ratings growth slows way down. At the same time as my 90% rule I try to give hitters 1500 AB's or 750 innings for starters in the minors. And going back to Grover, he was at 88 overall when you brought him up, so he basically was at 90% of his overall potential (I can't see what is overall projected ratings is).
But aside from the exceptions to the rule, I constantly see players, as an example, with an 85-86 overall rating and owners bringing them up with only 2-3 seasons in the minors and they are at, say, 67 overall rating. Just because they cannot be patient and give them time to fully develop.
Keep in mind that unless you are going with $20m scouting budgets, the projections you see are going to be fuzzy. The further away you ar from $20m, the less accurate they will be. There is even a slight bit of fuzziness at $20m.
So your "90% rule" is based on an inaccurate number to begin with.
One of the bigger factors in development is the distance between a player's current ratings and his "true" projections (which you can never really see). This is why younger players appear to develop more quickly . . . they have a larger gap to bridge.
The better rule of thumb is: once a player's current ratings reach the point where he is better than the guy you currently have penciled in at his position, he should be promoted. He will continue to grow at the ML level.