On the block 2013 offseason trade targets? Topic

He's trending down.  Yes, Texas will help him, but if he hits more than 40 I'd be surprised.  50 would shock me.  Aside from roiders, big sluggers don't get better in their 30s.
11/22/2013 10:06 AM
Had to go back to the early 70s to find an example? Kinda makes my point. Yes, there are exceptions, but generally, people get worse as their careers progress, and it appears Fielder is no different.
11/22/2013 10:47 AM

I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd hit 50 next year.   Makes no sense.

11/22/2013 10:54 AM
look who thought he might hit 50 next  year?  Does that help explain it?
11/22/2013 1:29 PM
Well, yeah, but I was trying to be nice.
11/22/2013 1:45 PM
I said I wouldn't be surprised. No one seems to be taking Comerica into account when ripping his stats for the last 2 years. Beltre didn't come close to 30 any season in Seattle, but has been over 30 every year in Texas - not an astronomical spike, but Beltre also doesn't have Fielder's power. Beltre also didn't have an OPS above .802 in Seattle, but in 4 years since, his lowest OPS was .880. I will happily bet that Fielder rebounds and hits at least 40 next season, given he gets at least 550 ABs.
11/22/2013 2:32 PM (edited)
I'd put an HBD season on that.  You game?  
11/22/2013 2:35 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/22/2013 2:35:00 PM (view original):
I'd put an HBD season on that.  You game?  
Done
11/22/2013 2:48 PM
You know he's just going to tear his hamstring on opening day and ruin all the fun. :)
11/22/2013 3:04 PM
I think he'll hit 40, of course 50 is a stretch, but it isn't impossible.  I also think WAR misses a little bit here.  Prince Fielder may not be a top 5 1B because of his abysmal defense, but at the end of the day I think he's still top 10 at the general position of 'hitter.'  I don't think his down 2013 is a trend, it's just a bad season.  His 2012 was very good, offensively speaking.  The dude OBPs .400 more often than not, he has monster power, and unlike most other guys with his kind of power he walks almost as much as or more than he strikes out.  By far his best similarity match on BBR at this point is Eddie Murray - after his age 29 season, Murray had 5 more good years left with the bat.

Nobody can predict the future, and everybody can see that Prince is fat, which at the very least isn't great for his knees.  But if you humor me for a minute and pretend you can accept 2013 as a fluke, can anybody come up with 10 better hitters in the game?  Based on offense alone, just the bat, and the legs if you want.  I've got:

Cabrera
Trout
Votto

And that's it.  And then I've got a few guys I would consider roughly equivalent:

Cano
Goldschmidt
McCutcheon
Harper (because of his age and room for improvement)

Who am I missing?  And if I'm not missing a LOT of guys, how can you not see how this is a potentially extremely valuable piece for the Rangers?  At the end of the day, WAR can't work perfectly for lineup analysis because offense isn't purely additive.  A guy with power and OBP like Prince makes everyone around him in the lineup better - better pitches to hit, more chances with runners on base and in scoring position, higher runs/times on base ratios...  At the end of the day, I just can't believe that good Prince is only worth 3-4 wins.
11/22/2013 4:04 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/22/2013 1:45:00 PM (view original):
Well, yeah, but I was trying to be nice.
okay, who are you and what have you done with the real MikeT23????
11/22/2013 6:35 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 11/22/2013 4:04:00 PM (view original):
I think he'll hit 40, of course 50 is a stretch, but it isn't impossible.  I also think WAR misses a little bit here.  Prince Fielder may not be a top 5 1B because of his abysmal defense, but at the end of the day I think he's still top 10 at the general position of 'hitter.'  I don't think his down 2013 is a trend, it's just a bad season.  His 2012 was very good, offensively speaking.  The dude OBPs .400 more often than not, he has monster power, and unlike most other guys with his kind of power he walks almost as much as or more than he strikes out.  By far his best similarity match on BBR at this point is Eddie Murray - after his age 29 season, Murray had 5 more good years left with the bat.

Nobody can predict the future, and everybody can see that Prince is fat, which at the very least isn't great for his knees.  But if you humor me for a minute and pretend you can accept 2013 as a fluke, can anybody come up with 10 better hitters in the game?  Based on offense alone, just the bat, and the legs if you want.  I've got:

Cabrera
Trout
Votto

And that's it.  And then I've got a few guys I would consider roughly equivalent:

Cano
Goldschmidt
McCutcheon
Harper (because of his age and room for improvement)

Who am I missing?  And if I'm not missing a LOT of guys, how can you not see how this is a potentially extremely valuable piece for the Rangers?  At the end of the day, WAR can't work perfectly for lineup analysis because offense isn't purely additive.  A guy with power and OBP like Prince makes everyone around him in the lineup better - better pitches to hit, more chances with runners on base and in scoring position, higher runs/times on base ratios...  At the end of the day, I just can't believe that good Prince is only worth 3-4 wins.
I'm tempted to add Chris Davis as equivalent, though he has to put together another good year or two to cement that. I'd also put CarGo in there.

But agreed - I think he's going to mash in that ballpark. His last year or two had nothing to do with age - it was ballpark and simply underperformance (2013). No reason to think he won't hit 40 again.
11/22/2013 8:05 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 11/22/2013 10:47:00 AM (view original):
Had to go back to the early 70s to find an example? Kinda makes my point. Yes, there are exceptions, but generally, people get worse as their careers progress, and it appears Fielder is no different.
Actually it was the first person I thought of.  Didn't dig at all.
11/22/2013 9:08 PM
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On the block 2013 offseason trade targets? Topic

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