Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Rafael Pescado
&
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Max Bolton
3 out of 5 players I checked on my pitching staff just before the NLCS.

WifS has said repeatedly that these "bumps" are just markers.   That they're not moving from 53 to 54 but that it's just marking their progression.     There's no way to know how much of this is true, the 53 could be a 53.2 with the 4th marker and 53.6 with the 5th marker.    So, really, the only question(if WifS wasn't providing misleading info), is what the guy starts at next season.     Would he have started at 53.6 rounded up or at 54 as the last marker showed him?

Using Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Max Bolton as the example.  5 "bumps" and nothing changed.  It wasn't a "bump", it was just marked.

Posted by cdc80uf on 4/7/2014 11:44:00 AM (view original):
I have had 100s of players get a 5th Regular Season "update" always happens when I get past the divisional or championship series.
For example Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Lorenzo Crespo

that player is a veteran. I was specifically referencing brand new draft picks. there's only enough cycles to naturally get them 4 markers, but promoting them late appears to give them a chance at a 5th marker.

Posted by MikeT23 on 4/7/2014 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Using Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Max Bolton as the example.  5 "bumps" and nothing changed.  It wasn't a "bump", it was just marked.

same response applies ^^

I think I've read everything WIS has written on this. Dev Chats, Help, and what others have posted as customer support replies in the forum.

It's one of those areas where the sum total of all of it contradicts and is incomplete. Which is consistent with what seems to have been WIS's approach even when WIS employees engaged with HBD. They tried to say as little as possible and let us figure it out.

Here's what I've learned in 20+ seasons -

You may or many not see an increase in ratings when you promote someone.  More likely if it's close to the time they would have gotten a bump based on the point in the season (regular season or playoffs).

WIS claims the ratings we see are the only ratings. There are no hidden ratings or numbers that impact the game.  So I doubt behind the 55 rating we see the player might be 55.0 or 55.2 or 55.6.  And even if they are, that would probably matter in one at bat in one game every 5-10 seasons.  So if I'm right or wrong about this, it doesn't matter.

If you believe the ratings we see are the only ratings, then promoting a player does make him better in the short run.  If yesterday he had a rating of 55 and I promote him today and the rating goes to 56, I believe he is that much better for the next game.  And being that one point better in some categories will matter in one at bat in one game every 5-10 seasons. So if I'm right or wrong about this, it doesn't matter.

Promoting a player in one way or another does not make him better in the long run. I tested always promoting my best prospects before the season ended in the hope I might get a 4-5 point boost over their MinL career.  I'm highly confident it doesn't happen.

Unless WIS is just making it all up, or they never wrote the code that worked as they wanted it to when they dreamed up the game, promoting a player does impact his future development, as it puts him with different coaches and in a different level.  Generally, promoting a player puts him with better coaches, but I've had more than one season with a turd of a coach and a better coaches at the level below.  WIS has also claimed a player should be at the correct level. So promoting him might put him above what they think is the best level, and might work against development.  I've never tested putting my #1 draft pick at AAA for 3-4 seasons.

Promoting players does seem to stop them from retiring. So if you're #1 draft pick was 22 when you signed him, don't leave him at Low or HiA at after 2-3 seasons thinking you'll promote him after rollover. He might retire.  If he's 24 and you think you might want him in the ML someday, get him to at least AA before the season ends.

By definition, there must be a best possible way to develop a player.  That would probably include perfect coaching, which does not exist in the game. I suspect that's why in 99% of the cases players don't hit projections, no matter what you put in ADV.  Even if you did everything else exactly as the game want you to, lack of perfect coaching brings the player in short of what was mathematically possible.

As HBD really works it seems that if you invest in coaching and training, put players at a reasonable MinL level, play them at a reasonable position, promote about once a season, rest them when they are tired so they are less likely to get hurt (and back that up with HLT budget), and basically do everything that seems to make sense, you're going to come reasonably close to whatever "perfect" might be.  I don't see how it's worth trying to figure it out past that.  Probably can't be done. And you'd need mountains of data and test cases to test theories.

The difference between a rating of 60 and 62 is tiny. Maybe one at bat once a season.  It can't be the best use of your time to worry about development beyond doing it good enough.

Two things I think I got from Tufft's post (and want to make sure I'm correct:)

1. Retirement is about the level the player ends at, not where they played their games
2. If promoting a player to better coaches, it's better to do it after a ratings bump instead of just before one.

asher413 -

(1) I don't think that's a rule.

If you leave a 24 yr old prospect at HiA when the season ends, thinking you'll promote him next season, he might retire. I've never seen a prospect that has been promoted retire from AA or AAA.  Once they get to AAA they seem to stay around until at least 30. If the prospect was more than a very good MinL player / replacement ML player, you'd have put them in the ML by then.

I've played a lot of 28+ year olds at HiA all season and then promoted them to AA or AAA before the end of the season. Some retire, some don't. I figure promoting them can't hurt, but I've come to doubt it helps prevent them from retiring.

(2) I don't think timing promotions to the ratings bumps we see matters in the long run.

WIS has said you want to have players at their appropriate MinL level and that you want them to have the best coaches. Those 2 statements contradict most of the time. They've never said which factor is more important. So I don't think anyone (other then the original programmer) can say for sure if it's better to have a 19 year old in his 1st full seasons in LowA or HiA if both level have averages coaches for that level.

We don't know for sure what coaching ratings really matter.  Is 50 Batting and 70 Patience better than 60 Batting and 60 Patience?  Again, the original programmer could tell us, but since we're all looking at estimates of every player's potential, I don't think anyone who just plays the game knows for sure.

Whatever rating bump points are being accumulated are applied, at least to the numbers we see, when a player is promoted.  Then the calculation starts over. Number of days and playing time seem to factor in, so if you promote a player right after you see a promotion bump, they won't have enough more playing time go get another bump, unless the were at 53.499999 the day we see the promotion bump and 53.500001 a day or two later when you promote them.

I'm pretty sure that by now, if there was some way to perfectly game the promotion system, somebody would have figured it out and somebody would have posted it here.

If your mL players play in the playoffs, you get an extra dev bump if and only if you promote them. I always promote them right before the ML world series to ensure enough time has elapsed between their last dev cycle so I get the promotion bump. This bump is NOT a marker that you would have gained the following spring training. Use it or lose it.

I suppose you have some sort of proof of your definitive statement.   Care to share?

I'm not desperate to convert anyone, so I'm not going to lay out a detailed proof. I'll just say for instance if a player goes up 2pts in a category after the playoffs and then another 2pts after the following spring training, you can't possibly believe you were going to get 4pts in ST had you not done the promotion. Additionally that player might go up 1pt at a time after ST, so then you'd be contending that he was going to get 4pts in ST and then go up 1pt at a time afterwards which you never see.

There are many other types of examples like 4th yr pros getting a bump in every single category, and then never getting bumps again. That playoff cycle can often be a 3rd/ 4th yr pro's best dev cycle.

Its possible that the extra bumps don't actually result in a better player, but rather just develop him quicker. I suspect that it does develop a better player, but I don't have proof for that one.

All my minor league teams made the playoffs this past week. I had read that this was beneficial to players development but didn't know any specifics so what boogerlips shared is very timely.

Posted by boogerlips on 4/11/2014 12:52:00 AM (view original):
I'm not desperate to convert anyone, so I'm not going to lay out a detailed proof. I'll just say for instance if a player goes up 2pts in a category after the playoffs and then another 2pts after the following spring training, you can't possibly believe you were going to get 4pts in ST had you not done the promotion. Additionally that player might go up 1pt at a time after ST, so then you'd be contending that he was going to get 4pts in ST and then go up 1pt at a time afterwards which you never see.

There are many other types of examples like 4th yr pros getting a bump in every single category, and then never getting bumps again. That playoff cycle can often be a 3rd/ 4th yr pro's best dev cycle.

Its possible that the extra bumps don't actually result in a better player, but rather just develop him quicker. I suspect that it does develop a better player, but I don't have proof for that one.

I guess the 2 pt promotion bump is something I don't recall seeing.   Just finished up MG and did my promotions..   A lot of the guys got a 5th development cycle but none improved more than 1 pt in any category.