Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 6:18:00 PM (view original):
You've avoided the question long enough.
2 outs, runner on 3rd and you need a run. Do you want the .320 hitter swinging or the .227 hitter?
Everyone wants the .320 hitter up to bat. But if he walks, I'm ok with that and here's why:
If the guy has a .320 average when he's being selective, his average will probably go down when he stops being selective and tries to avoid a walk. But even if we're generous and assume that his hit rate will stay at 32% when he isn't being selective, he's still going to make an out 68% of the time. That means if he goes up to bat trying not to walk, the game is already over just about 70% of the time. An out is the only bad outcome in this situation and Edgar Martinez was exceptionally good at avoiding outs.
Now answer my question, which hitter would you prefer overall:
A) .320/.360/.520
B) .320/.420/.520