Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 2/11/2014 2:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 8:23:00 AM (view original):
Here, I'll break it down(and I think this is tec's argument too):

A runner on 2nd with two down and a .320 hitter at the plate.   Assuming he doesn't choke like EM apparently did during his career(.269), you have a 32% chance of scoring a run.  If there's a .250 hitter at the plate, you have a 25% chance of scoring a run.   

Obviously, if the .320 hitter walks, you still have a 25% of scoring a run but the odds of scoring two runs increases.   And you now have a chance to score three runs which was not possible without the walk.    And this is where everything went bonkers.  No one has disputed the possibility of multiple runs increasing with the walk.

But, if I'm in a close game, or there are two aces battling it out that day, I want that ONE run.   And I want the better hitter attempting to get me that run.

THIS is what tec and I have been arguing.

Can't you guys retain anyfuckingthing for more than 3 minutes?

OK. AGAIN. This is a very selective situation.  And you've shown no evidence that A) Edgar was worse in these very specific situations and B) No evidence that Edgar was a passive hitter in these situations. 

"2 outs, RISP" does not equal "I NEED ONE RUN SWING THE BAT"

2 down, RISP is NOT a very selective situation.   If happens a lot.   Every game.   Sometimes multiple times during a game.

I'll ask you the same question.   Do you know how important one specific run is before the game is over?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

Posted by toddcommish on 2/11/2014 2:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

It also makes no sense to think "Swing at a pitch in the dirt, Edgar!  It's still better than a walk!"

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

Posted by toddcommish on 2/11/2014 2:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

It also makes no sense to think "Swing at a pitch in the dirt, Edgar!  It's still better than a walk!"

Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 2:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

OK. Hits are better than walks. I also can't imagine anyone seeing a walk in that situation and wishing that Martinez had made an out instead.

Who suggested that making an out was good?

 

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 2/11/2014 2:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

OK. Hits are better than walks. I also can't imagine anyone seeing a walk in that situation and wishing that Martinez had made an out instead.

Who suggested that making an out was good?

 

Posted by toddcommish on 2/11/2014 2:39:00 PM (view original):
By "agressive" [sic], do you want him swinging at pitches OUT of the strike zone, thus diminishing his effectiveness?  

What is the cutoff for the on-deck hitter for this level of aggressiveness... .250, .220?

Nope.  But I want him swing at pitches in the zone.  Or on the corners.  I don;t want him to take called strikes in the zone or on the corners.

As for the on-deck hitter . . . that's sitational.  Depends on the hitter, and his history with the pitcher.

This shouldn't be some sort of mysterious black magic.  Major league managers allegedly know how to manage in-game situations, and make decisions based on the specific situation and personnel.  I think that's one of the requirements of the job.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by toddcommish on 2/11/2014 2:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:47:00 PM (view original):
Honestly, this is stupid.    I can't imagine anyone watching a game with EM at the plate, Russ Davis on deck with runners on/2 outs and thinking "A walk is good.   It increase our run probability from .273 to .324.  TAKE THE WALK, EDGAR!!!!!"

It just makes no sense from a common sense baseball standpoint. 

It also makes no sense to think "Swing at a pitch in the dirt, Edgar!  It's still better than a walk!"

Who suggested that?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:54:00 PM (view original):
I'll try to be clear.

NO ONE has suggested that EM throw his bat at pitches 14 inches outside.  NO ONE has suggested that EM make outs instead of walking.  

What I HAVE suggested is that he give himself, obviously a better hitter than the guy behind him, a CHANCE to get a HIT.   That cannot be accomplished without swinging the bat.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/11/2014 2:54:00 PM (view original):
I'll try to be clear.

NO ONE has suggested that EM throw his bat at pitches 14 inches outside.  NO ONE has suggested that EM make outs instead of walking.  

What I HAVE suggested is that he give himself, obviously a better hitter than the guy behind him, a CHANCE to get a HIT.   That cannot be accomplished without swinging the bat.