2015 baseball HOF ballot. Topic

zbrent716
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Long term, yes, he's helping maximize the total number of runs scored in any particular season (not a single situation) by not making an out 100% of the time (when he walks) instead of driving in a run some minority fraction of the time.
2/7/2014 3:00 PM
bad_luck
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He's helping his team every time he gets on base. That's true of all hitters.
2/7/2014 3:00 PM
MikeT23
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That's playing the game on a stat sheet.    Do you disagree that having Martinez swinging the bat instead of Dan Wilson would have created more runs?
2/7/2014 3:01 PM
zbrent716
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Over the long term, which of these do you think lead to more runs scored for the team:

1 - A) Martinez (or Griffey or A-Rod or Jeter) batting with no one on vs. B) Davis (or whoever) batting with 1 man on
2 - A) Martinez batting with 1 man on vs. B) Davis batting with 2 men on
3 - A) Martinez batting with 2 men on vs. B) Davis batting with the bases loaded

Maybe you really believe the answer is A, but you'd be going completely against the current movement of baseball statisticians. 


2/7/2014 3:04 PM
bad_luck
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Again, masterful trolling.

A guy bats over .300 and slugs over .500 and you knock him because his walk rate is too high at 14%.

Who would you rather have:

A) .320/.420./520

B) .320/.360/.520
2/7/2014 3:07 PM
MikeT23
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Again, that's the game played on a stat sheet.

Back to the original example.

1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez walks, Davis comes to the plate.
1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez cannot walk and is swinging.

Which is more likely to produce a run?
2/7/2014 3:08 PM
zbrent716
Posts: 1970 (0)
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Again, that's the game played on a stat sheet.

Back to the original example.

1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez walks, Davis comes to the plate.
1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez cannot walk and is swinging.

Which is more likely to produce a run?
Can we agree that scenario 2 is more likely to produce multiple runs?

If so, I'd be willing to look at numbers to answer the actual question you asked.
2/7/2014 3:10 PM
bad_luck
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You're arguing that Martinez's walk rate is a bad thing because, in one hypothetical example, you'd rather have him put the ball in play. So what? That isn't relevant to his overall career walk rate because that hypothetical could apply to anyone, including a guy like Mantle who walked 13% of the time.

Who would you rather have, A or B?
2/7/2014 3:12 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Again, that's the game played on a stat sheet.

Back to the original example.

1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez walks, Davis comes to the plate.
1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez cannot walk and is swinging.

Which is more likely to produce a run?
Can we agree that scenario 2 is more likely to produce multiple runs?

If so, I'd be willing to look at numbers to answer the actual question you asked.
I think scenario 1 is more likely to produce multiple runs.  You have 2 runners in scoring position.   But, if you believe Martinez is a better hitter than Davis, it's also more likely to produce 0 runs. 
2/7/2014 3:15 PM
zbrent716
Posts: 1970 (0)
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Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Again, that's the game played on a stat sheet.

Back to the original example.

1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez walks, Davis comes to the plate.
1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez cannot walk and is swinging.

Which is more likely to produce a run?
Can we agree that scenario 2 is more likely to produce multiple runs?

If so, I'd be willing to look at numbers to answer the actual question you asked.
I think scenario 1 is more likely to produce multiple runs.  You have 2 runners in scoring position.   But, if you believe Martinez is a better hitter than Davis, it's also more likely to produce 0 runs. 
Sorry, yes, I mis-typed. Walking is more likely to lead to multiple runs.

OK, I'll look at your question, but can you tell me what season(s) you were using? I just checked a half-dozen boxes and the people batting behind Edgar were Tino Martinez, John Olerud, and Jay Buhner. So what season(s) should I be looking at?
2/7/2014 3:17 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by bad_luck on 2/7/2014 3:12:00 PM (view original):
You're arguing that Martinez's walk rate is a bad thing because, in one hypothetical example, you'd rather have him put the ball in play. So what? That isn't relevant to his overall career walk rate because that hypothetical could apply to anyone, including a guy like Mantle who walked 13% of the time.

Who would you rather have, A or B?
I think I've been pretty clear on what I'd rather have.   I'd like my better hitters swinging the bat when my lesser hitters are standing on deck.  How do I need to word this so I don't have to answer it again?
2/7/2014 3:17 PM
bad_luck
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Really? You'd rather have a guy who hits 320/360/520 over a guy who hits 320/420/520?

Amazing.
2/7/2014 3:22 PM (edited)
MikeT23
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Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:16:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zbrent716 on 2/7/2014 3:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/7/2014 3:08:00 PM (view original):
Again, that's the game played on a stat sheet.

Back to the original example.

1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez walks, Davis comes to the plate.
1st/3rd, 2 out.   Martinez cannot walk and is swinging.

Which is more likely to produce a run?
Can we agree that scenario 2 is more likely to produce multiple runs?

If so, I'd be willing to look at numbers to answer the actual question you asked.
I think scenario 1 is more likely to produce multiple runs.  You have 2 runners in scoring position.   But, if you believe Martinez is a better hitter than Davis, it's also more likely to produce 0 runs. 
Sorry, yes, I mis-typed. Walking is more likely to lead to multiple runs.

OK, I'll look at your question, but can you tell me what season(s) you were using? I just checked a half-dozen boxes and the people batting behind Edgar were Tino Martinez, John Olerud, and Jay Buhner. So what season(s) should I be looking at?
I pulled a random box from 1998 because that's when I felt A-Rod was established as a star.   I forget who hit first but it was A-Rod, Griffey, Segui, Martinez, Wilson, Davis 2-7.
2/7/2014 3:19 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by bad_luck on 2/7/2014 3:19:00 PM (view original):
Really? You rather have a guy who hits 320/360/520 over a guy who hits 320/420/520?

Amazing.

I'd rather have that guy swinging than 227/295/410.   You wouldn't?

Amazing.

2/7/2014 3:20 PM
MikeT23
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http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA199805050.shtml


This one. 
2/7/2014 3:22 PM
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