Posted by helgi on 2/12/2014 11:37:00 PM (view original):
Gotta go with bhouska on this one. You need all of the above - talent, WE, and potential. Especially at lower levels.
I have heard for a long time, good quality coaches saying potential is key. I have no doubt these guys know what they are talking about (especially bhuska). However, I have never seen anyone provide quantifiable back-up.
The following is a table of my Illinois wesleyan team in Leahy with my recruits from season 95 (3 season ago). This world just rolled over and these recruits are now Sr or Jr*. In other words, 3 years worth of growth. I think my practice plans are pretty common to everyone else and playing time is probably similar to most other coaches (i.e. i try to get young players time with back-up depth chart formations).
Note: Col 3 is WE as an recruit
Note: Col 4 is potential (4=STL, 3=Good Potential, 2=Average Potential, 1=Bad Potential, "-"=I did not scout, unknown potential)
Note: Col 5 is cumulative 3 year average increase in attributes excluding increase in WE and decrease in attribute which a position does not practice (i.e. BLK for a QB)
From what I see between level 3 recruits ("room to grow", "improve his game over 4 year", etc...) and level 2 recruits ("110%","motor never stops",...)
the average difference over the 1st three years is only about 4 points per attribute. We know that GUESS adds to 100%, so a 4 point average attribute growth will mean an increase of 4 points in GUESS.
In my opinion, that is not a huge difference. When these guys below are back-up Fr, So & Jr year I would want those guys to have higher talent (i.e. higher attributes).
If I have a highly talented recruit (high attributes / GUESS score) who ends up being a level 2 potential with a WE in the 30's, the table below suggests you ABSOLUTELY take him over a level 3 potential guys with a lower GUESS / attributes. I am defining lower GUESS score by using 3-4 points difference. Obviously, if the GUESS difference in slight, the all else equal, i agree that you take the higher potential, higher WE recruit.
My point, is that Potential & WE and secondary considerations to initial attribute levels and the table below backs up my assertion.
Col 1 |
Col 2 |
Col 3 |
Col 4 |
Col 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
DL |
James Lara |
42 |
4 |
15.3 |
DB |
Albert Pugh |
44 |
3 |
14.7 |
OL |
Benjamin Griffin |
34 |
3 |
11.0 |
DB |
Brian Wood |
41 |
3 |
13.7 |
DL |
James McCarty |
32 |
3 |
11.7 |
K |
Joe Kelley |
50 |
3 |
14.8 |
TE |
John Evans |
53 |
3 |
13.7 |
OL |
Marcus Walsh |
43 |
3 |
11.2 |
LB |
Paul Sherman |
37 |
3 |
12.1 |
OL |
Pedro Adkins |
48 |
3 |
13.8 |
RB |
Robert Smith |
32 |
3 |
10.8 |
LB |
Tommy Wagner |
37 |
3 |
11.6 |
LB |
Frank Hamilton |
36 |
2 |
8.7 |
RB |
Robert Small |
38 |
2 |
8.4 |
RB |
James Ponce |
36 |
- |
7.9 |