Posted by dahsdebater on 9/26/2014 10:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/26/2014 5:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/26/2014 3:19:00 PM (view original):
Anyone that thinks 28 points in BA, 14 pts in OBP and 7 pts in SLG over 20 years makes for a "similar player" is a ******* moron.    Not sure I can say it any nicer.    Hell, just start with 400 more hits in 90 more PA and go from there.    It's ridiculous to say "Well, yeah, other than that, they're pretty similar."

Say this out loud:

"He had 400 more hits in 90 more plate appearances.   They're pretty similar."

He had 400 more hits in 90 more plate appearances.   They're pretty similar.

Doesn't bother me.

Yeah, that's because you're either A) very dumb or B) very stubborn.

400 hits.   90 plate appearances.   28 points in BA.   14 points in OBP.  7 points in slugging.   Over the course of 12000+ plate appearances.

Posted by bad_luck on 9/26/2014 10:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 9/26/2014 9:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/26/2014 6:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 9/26/2014 5:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 9/26/2014 5:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 9/26/2014 4:52:00 PM (view original):
Buddy Bell and Craig Biggio.

Similar career WAR values (Bell's is 1.0 higher in 2500 fewer PA's).

And only the magical 3 points of OPS+ difference between them.

Using your logic, they're similar players.

So if Biggio is a HOFer, why isn't Bell if they're similar players?

Maybe Bell deserves another look since we agree that Biggio should be in the hall.

To start, Biggio has Bell by 2500 plate appearances. That matters. A player's OPS+ goes down when they stretch out their decline phase. Cutting Biggio off at 10,000 PA (as if he retired in 2003) gives him a 117 OPS+. Now the difference is 8.

Biggio was a catcher/middle infielder and Bell was primarily a third baseman. I'm of the opinion that the offensive standards between second and third should be similar, so not a big deal, except for the time behind the plate. We aren't (weren't) really able evaluate catcher defense statistically, so I'm guessing that Biggio's WAR should probably be higher. I'm also not terribly confident in the accuracy of 1970's and 1980's defensive numbers, which contribute to 33% of Bell's WAR.

I'd say that Biggio sits just above my hall of fame cut off line while Bell sits comfortably below it.

LOL.

LOL at what?

LOL at you.

For what, exactly?

The way you pick and choose when you will trust your beloved advanced metrics and when you will disregard them when you realize that they may make you look foolish.

Didn't you once say "stats tell us everything we need to know"?

I don't think I ever said that. Do you disagree with my Biggio/Bell analysis? If so, is it the "Biggio makes it" or the "Bell doesn't" that you disagree with?

Yes, you did indeed say that.

What I disagree with is your selective dismissal of your beloved advanced stats when they don't seem to fit whatever picture your trying to paint, and your absolute reliance on they when they do.

From Buddy Bell's Wikipedia page:

"In fielding, Bell was spectacular and often played far off the third base line, taking many basehits from opposing batters. In Total zone runs (a defensive statistic) he is 9th all time(ahead of Willie Mays) and 2nd among all third baseman (behind Brooks Robinson). His Range factor (another defensive stat) is 5th all-time among 3rd baseman. He was in the top 10 in fielding pct. 10 times and finished first 3 times."

Now, nobody should use Wikipedia as an absolute source of truthful information, but it seems that this info can be easily verified by you at your favorite baseball stats website.  Plus, I watched Bell play at the 70's and 80's, and he was one of the best defensive 3B I've ever seen play (Brooks in his prime was a little before my time), along with Nettles.  For you to dismiss Bell's defensive stats in such a flippant way is laughable and insincere.

I look at Bell the same as Lofton. Value from older defensive stats is an approximation. Players that are borderline and get a huge boost to their WAR from defense usually land in the no column for me. If you'd like to make an argument for Bell, I'm happy to consider it.

I don't think I ever said that. If you think I did, quote it.

Yeah, it was in one of the first threads where we started mocking you about your reliance on advanced metrics, and we questioned whether you actually ever watched a game.

Your answer was pretty much along the lines of "I don't need to see the game.  I have the stats".

I'm sure others can verify that was the gist of your comments.

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/27/2014 7:28:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/26/2014 10:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/26/2014 5:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 9/26/2014 3:19:00 PM (view original):
Anyone that thinks 28 points in BA, 14 pts in OBP and 7 pts in SLG over 20 years makes for a "similar player" is a ******* moron.    Not sure I can say it any nicer.    Hell, just start with 400 more hits in 90 more PA and go from there.    It's ridiculous to say "Well, yeah, other than that, they're pretty similar."

Say this out loud:

"He had 400 more hits in 90 more plate appearances.   They're pretty similar."

He had 400 more hits in 90 more plate appearances.   They're pretty similar.

Doesn't bother me.

Yeah, that's because you're either A) very dumb or B) very stubborn.

400 hits.   90 plate appearances.   28 points in BA.   14 points in OBP.  7 points in slugging.   Over the course of 12000+ plate appearances.

A) Jeter played in a more offensive league, in a more offensive park, in a better lineup; the league- and park-adjusted numbers are closer than the absolute numbers

B) Jeter's average is better by a statistically significant amount, even after adjustments.  OBP and SLG are not.

C) I don't give a flying **** whether Biggio's OBP and SLG come from hitting singles or walking and getting more XBH.  Ichiro has 400 more hits than Frank Thomas in 400 FEWER plate appearances.  Who's the more valuable hitter?

D) Biggio also played better defense (still not good), stole more bases, and got caught less, making their value closer in spite of Jeter's 3 point edge in OPS+.

E) BBR's similar player algorithm, which is totally unbiased, says Biggio is the most similar player to Jeter in the history of baseball.  Jeter is the 2nd-most similar player to Biggio.  Once I found that, it should really have slowed down your argument that it was a bad comparison.  The unbiased statistical analysis says they are similar.  So you can keep saying I'm dumb or stubborn to argue that they are similar, but the best reference we have for this discussion is firmly on my side.

Posted by tecwrg on 9/27/2014 12:55:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, it was in one of the first threads where we started mocking you about your reliance on advanced metrics, and we questioned whether you actually ever watched a game.

Your answer was pretty much along the lines of "I don't need to see the game.  I have the stats".

I'm sure others can verify that was the gist of your comments.

Who is this "we" you think you're speaking for?

Do you disagree with my Bell analysis? Because it seems like you're trying to argue for the sake of argument.

Really?  You don't know who "we" are?

Who are the people who mock you most in these forums?

Everyone?

Posted by tecwrg on 9/27/2014 2:01:00 PM (view original):
Really?  You don't know who "we" are?

Who are the people who mock you most in these forums?

Wow, that's arrogant of you to speak for anyone else. Especially when you don't disagree with my point.

Pointing out that others besides me mock you is "arrogant"?

What planet are you from?

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/27/2014 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Everyone?

Not everyone.  Burnsy doesn't mock him.  Though he does do the occasional forum facepalm when BL goes beyond full retard mode.

Posted by tecwrg on 9/27/2014 5:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/27/2014 2:08:00 PM (view original):
Everyone?

Not everyone.  Burnsy doesn't mock him.  Though he does do the occasional forum facepalm when BL goes beyond full retard mode.

So just you and mike. I'm being mocked by the retard coalition. I don't know how I'll survive.

Tell me more about how you agree with my Biggio/Bell analysis.

My opinion of your analysis is irrelevant.  Stop trying to deflect the discussion.

I'm just trying to understand the logic behind how you got to your conclusion.

When comparing Jeter / Biggio, you used OPS+, WAR, etc. to arrive at the conclusion that they were similar players.  Only separated by 3 points of OPS+.

When comparing Biggio / Bell, the OPS+ and WAR numbers are similar.  Again, only separated by 3 points of OPS+.  But apparently, Biggio/Bell is different from Jeter/Biggio.

You're unable to explain why.  Other than throwing away dWAR with a flippant "I don't trust defensive stats from the 70's and 80's" when there is ample evidence to support the fact that Bell was an excellent defensive 3B.

And before you start throwing the "retard" word around, try to get some self awareness.