MLB: a bag of a**holes. Topic

Rob Deer, also at .345.
5/15/2014 1:47 PM
It should be noted, career BABIP for hitters (assuming multiple seasons) isn't a reflection of luck. A hitter's skill level impacts their BABIP.

A huge swing in a small sample though, can be a reflection of luck, good or bad. See 2014 Solarte, Yangervis and 2014 Craig, Allen.
5/15/2014 1:51 PM
Career BABIP, no.  Derek Jeter has a high one for a reason.  I use BABIP in an attempt to guess future performance more than anything.  I don't look at it when looking at career numbers, generally.
 
I almost feel like BABIP should be followed up with LD%.  
5/15/2014 1:57 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/15/2014 1:58:00 PM (view original):
Career BABIP, no.  Derek Jeter has a high one for a reason.  I use BABIP in an attempt to guess future performance more than anything.  I don't look at it when looking at career numbers, generally.
 
I almost feel like BABIP should be followed up with LD%.  
Yep, love using BABIP and LD% to make buy low fantasy baseball trades. 
5/15/2014 2:08 PM
ESPN's Dave Schoenfield (follow link for data):

"I'm watching a game the other day. It doesn't really matter which one as the specifics aren't important. There was a runner on third with one out, late in a close game, and the batter struck out. The ex-player analyst in the booth goes into a little soliloquy about how back in the day batters in his era would cut down on their swings in that situation and put the ball in play, whereas now players just hack away, strike out too often and fail to drive in that run.
...

Bottom line: Old ballplayers love to talk about how the game was better more fundamentally sound in their day and how players understood situations better and so on and so on. 


It's not true. From what I can tell, batters are doing about the same as always in those "choke up and put the ball in play" situations."

5/21/2014 11:38 AM
The numbers also show that scoring with one out, runner on third is at it's lowest point since the 1970's.

Not by much, but it's still lower.

5/21/2014 12:02 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 5/21/2014 11:39:00 AM (view original):
ESPN's Dave Schoenfield (follow link for data):

"I'm watching a game the other day. It doesn't really matter which one as the specifics aren't important. There was a runner on third with one out, late in a close game, and the batter struck out. The ex-player analyst in the booth goes into a little soliloquy about how back in the day batters in his era would cut down on their swings in that situation and put the ball in play, whereas now players just hack away, strike out too often and fail to drive in that run.
...

Bottom line: Old ballplayers love to talk about how the game was better more fundamentally sound in their day and how players understood situations better and so on and so on. 


It's not true. From what I can tell, batters are doing about the same as always in those "choke up and put the ball in play" situations."

It depends on the situation.  The specifics actually do matter here.  If this was Curtis Granderson taking his long loopy swing, then yes, he should have changed his mindset at the plate in that situation and didn't.  As I said before, there's more players who seem like they don't understand situational baseball than there was in the past.
5/21/2014 12:08 PM
BL doesn't actually watch baseball, so that's a point that's lost on him.
5/21/2014 12:10 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/21/2014 12:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/21/2014 11:39:00 AM (view original):
ESPN's Dave Schoenfield (follow link for data):

"I'm watching a game the other day. It doesn't really matter which one as the specifics aren't important. There was a runner on third with one out, late in a close game, and the batter struck out. The ex-player analyst in the booth goes into a little soliloquy about how back in the day batters in his era would cut down on their swings in that situation and put the ball in play, whereas now players just hack away, strike out too often and fail to drive in that run.
...

Bottom line: Old ballplayers love to talk about how the game was better more fundamentally sound in their day and how players understood situations better and so on and so on. 


It's not true. From what I can tell, batters are doing about the same as always in those "choke up and put the ball in play" situations."

It depends on the situation.  The specifics actually do matter here.  If this was Curtis Granderson taking his long loopy swing, then yes, he should have changed his mindset at the plate in that situation and didn't.  As I said before, there's more players who seem like they don't understand situational baseball than there was in the past.
And obviously the score and inning matters too.  Down 3 in the 8th? Maybe you don't change your mindset much, you need baserunners. 1-1 game in the 7th? Different story.
5/21/2014 12:12 PM
Players are striking out at a record rate.    A simple fact.

Could that change if they "choked up and put the ball in play" instead of "swinging as hard as humanly possible"?

Yeah, I think so.   I don't think "batters are doing about the same as always".    See the first line of this post.
5/21/2014 12:19 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 5/21/2014 12:02:00 PM (view original):
The numbers also show that scoring with one out, runner on third is at it's lowest point since the 1970's.

Not by much, but it's still lower.

I'd be willing to bet that the 56.5% rate this year is easily within one standard deviation of the mean. It was 56.5 in 2012, 58.0 in 2010, 57.5 in 2009, 56.9 in 1978, 56.5 in 1963, 57.2 in 1953. Doesn't look like a trend.

5/21/2014 12:28 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/21/2014 12:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/21/2014 11:39:00 AM (view original):
ESPN's Dave Schoenfield (follow link for data):

"I'm watching a game the other day. It doesn't really matter which one as the specifics aren't important. There was a runner on third with one out, late in a close game, and the batter struck out. The ex-player analyst in the booth goes into a little soliloquy about how back in the day batters in his era would cut down on their swings in that situation and put the ball in play, whereas now players just hack away, strike out too often and fail to drive in that run.
...

Bottom line: Old ballplayers love to talk about how the game was better more fundamentally sound in their day and how players understood situations better and so on and so on. 


It's not true. From what I can tell, batters are doing about the same as always in those "choke up and put the ball in play" situations."

It depends on the situation.  The specifics actually do matter here.  If this was Curtis Granderson taking his long loopy swing, then yes, he should have changed his mindset at the plate in that situation and didn't.  As I said before, there's more players who seem like they don't understand situational baseball than there was in the past.
The specifics don't matter to this point because Schoenfield is talking about the general idea that players don't play situational ball anymore. Who was up in that specific game doesn't matter because the analyst wasn't saying "Granderson is the problem." He was saying all players just hack away.
5/21/2014 12:31 PM
The soliloquy, not the specific situation, is the issue.
5/21/2014 12:32 PM
What I'm saying is that more players hack away than they used to.  Not all players.
5/21/2014 12:35 PM
"Home run hitters drive Cadillacs, and singles hitters drive Fords"

Forget who said it but it still holds true.   Maybe with a car model update.
5/21/2014 12:39 PM
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MLB: a bag of a**holes. Topic

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