Posted by DougOut on 5/22/2014 10:26:00 PM (view original):
Excuse me for butting in for a moment.

Just happened upon this thread and it's more than obvious you are all knowledgeable and dedicated fans of the game. Will not pretend I know more than any of you about the game or some of the debate and exchange previous. Found it interesting and educational. I remember the mound change and the fences moving. Casual fan. Old school.  BA/OBP/SLG.

Then there are all the other issues you brought up.  From PED to stats I never heard of or understand. 

I'm going to simply throw another bone on the fire. Something I heard today. It involves the manager and strategy.

Phillies are playing the Marlins in Miami.  Tie game bottom of the ninth. Phillies RP hasn't given up a run in the last 10 outings.

First Marlin makes an out.  Second guy gets on.  PHILLIES go into a prevent double defense.  Corners play the line and outfield is way deep. Two guys get hits that should have been outs if the guys were playing their regular positions.

Marlins win. Phillies lose. That's baseball.

There are so many variables. It even goes to the manager and the pitch count or if you got laid last night or one of your teammates is a complete ******* to you that day. How many fans are in the stands that day. What's the weather.  So many variables.  

In the long run I suppose it's up to the individual and if he can overcome all the obstacles.  Regardless, the best talent under the current circumstance will prevail in his era and we can spend the rest of our lives speculating.

That's what stats are for. 

Posted by The Taint on 5/22/2014 10:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 5/22/2014 8:05:00 PM (view original):
Let's look at Pedro Alvarez.

He's having a rough 2014, hitting .217/.312/.373 with 8 home runs.

Will that get better? We need more info to make a reasonable guess.

His 2014 BABIP is .237. His career BABIP is .293.

We can guess, with some certainty (we'd really need to look at his batted ball profile to be more sure), that he will turn things around this year. It seems like he's been a victim of bad luck and it's likely that balls he puts in play will go for hits at a rate closer to his career average and his triple slash will go up.

Adding HR to BABIP clouds that picture because HR rate isn't a function of luck. HR rate needs to be separate so that you can evaluate it. A HR rate down significantly is a bad sign for future performance, not a good one.

When you're grounding balls into a shift constantly, it's not bad luck, it's bad approach.  When you hit three pop fly home runs at Wrigley on a windy day.....balls that would normally be fly outs, it's a function of circumstance or luck.  There's so many variables that can be tossed in there on any given day, that one has to wonder if advanced stats properly takes everything into consideration.  I know Bill James recently changed his thinking on clutch hitting based on whether they were really looking at statistics properly when it came to clutch hitting, because all situations could not be accounted for in the way advanced stats are measured.

Baseball is not black and white, it's a game based a great bit on circumstance and situation.  When you've watched 2-3,000 games in your life, you understand that moving a runner over is entirely preferable to not moving him over.  You understand that just because there isn't much of a correlation to strikeout rate to runs scored over a season, in single games, it can play a huge factor between a win and a loss.

Posted by bad_luck on 5/23/2014 12:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by The Taint on 5/22/2014 10:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 5/22/2014 8:05:00 PM (view original):
Let's look at Pedro Alvarez.

He's having a rough 2014, hitting .217/.312/.373 with 8 home runs.

Will that get better? We need more info to make a reasonable guess.

His 2014 BABIP is .237. His career BABIP is .293.

We can guess, with some certainty (we'd really need to look at his batted ball profile to be more sure), that he will turn things around this year. It seems like he's been a victim of bad luck and it's likely that balls he puts in play will go for hits at a rate closer to his career average and his triple slash will go up.

Adding HR to BABIP clouds that picture because HR rate isn't a function of luck. HR rate needs to be separate so that you can evaluate it. A HR rate down significantly is a bad sign for future performance, not a good one.

When you're grounding balls into a shift constantly, it's not bad luck, it's bad approach.  When you hit three pop fly home runs at Wrigley on a windy day.....balls that would normally be fly outs, it's a function of circumstance or luck.  There's so many variables that can be tossed in there on any given day, that one has to wonder if advanced stats properly takes everything into consideration.  I know Bill James recently changed his thinking on clutch hitting based on whether they were really looking at statistics properly when it came to clutch hitting, because all situations could not be accounted for in the way advanced stats are measured.

Baseball is not black and white, it's a game based a great bit on circumstance and situation.  When you've watched 2-3,000 games in your life, you understand that moving a runner over is entirely preferable to not moving him over.  You understand that just because there isn't much of a correlation to strikeout rate to runs scored over a season, in single games, it can play a huge factor between a win and a loss.

Regarding Alvarez, he'll be fine when he starts hitting line drives again.

Regarding BABIP, even if some HR are flukes, they still don't belong in BABIP because they aren't in play.

Regarding strikeouts, no one has ever said that there aren't specific situations that require a change in approach. But no one has provided evidence that players aren't doing that. In fact, I presented evidence that they are. In 2014, the overall K rate is 20+%. With a runner on third and one out, it goes down to 15+%. In general, how players make outs really doesn't matter. The rate that they make them is what matters.

Posted by tecwrg on 5/22/2014 6:25:00 PM (view original):
FWIW, I understand BABIP exactly.  I just don't find it to be a very meaningful or useful stat.

Any statistic where a batter can hit a screaming line drive 370 feet in fair territory, in which sometimes it is included in the stat, and sometimes it's not, seems inherently flawed.

Much like FIP.  Sometimes 370 foot line drives are included, and sometimes they're not.  

In fact, FIP is much dumber than BABIP because it's purpose is to measure a pitcher's effectiveness by removing fielding from the equation.  A hard hit line drive that hits a foot from the top of the LCF wall should not be treated differently from the EXACT SAME hit that is hit in a park where the wall is two feet shorter.

I seem to recall already having this discussion about FIP under his alter ego other ID.

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/23/2014 9:32:00 AM (view original):
Didn't BL just admit that some HR are lucky?   "even if some HR are flukes"

Doesn't that devalue BABIP just a little more?

Posted by burnsy483 on 5/23/2014 9:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 5/22/2014 6:25:00 PM (view original):
FWIW, I understand BABIP exactly.  I just don't find it to be a very meaningful or useful stat.

Any statistic where a batter can hit a screaming line drive 370 feet in fair territory, in which sometimes it is included in the stat, and sometimes it's not, seems inherently flawed.

Much like FIP.  Sometimes 370 foot line drives are included, and sometimes they're not.  

In fact, FIP is much dumber than BABIP because it's purpose is to measure a pitcher's effectiveness by removing fielding from the equation.  A hard hit line drive that hits a foot from the top of the LCF wall should not be treated differently from the EXACT SAME hit that is hit in a park where the wall is two feet shorter.

I seem to recall already having this discussion about FIP under his alter ego other ID.

So...you hate the "home run" stat?

Posted by tecwrg on 5/23/2014 10:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 5/23/2014 9:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 5/22/2014 6:25:00 PM (view original):
FWIW, I understand BABIP exactly.  I just don't find it to be a very meaningful or useful stat.

Any statistic where a batter can hit a screaming line drive 370 feet in fair territory, in which sometimes it is included in the stat, and sometimes it's not, seems inherently flawed.

Much like FIP.  Sometimes 370 foot line drives are included, and sometimes they're not.  

In fact, FIP is much dumber than BABIP because it's purpose is to measure a pitcher's effectiveness by removing fielding from the equation.  A hard hit line drive that hits a foot from the top of the LCF wall should not be treated differently from the EXACT SAME hit that is hit in a park where the wall is two feet shorter.

I seem to recall already having this discussion about FIP under his alter ego other ID.

So...you hate the "home run" stat?

Is that what I said?

Stop acting stupid.  I'll give you more credit than that.  Don't keep dropping down to BL level stupidity in your arguments.

Posted by burnsy483 on 5/23/2014 10:34:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 5/23/2014 10:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 5/23/2014 9:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 5/22/2014 6:25:00 PM (view original):
FWIW, I understand BABIP exactly.  I just don't find it to be a very meaningful or useful stat.

Any statistic where a batter can hit a screaming line drive 370 feet in fair territory, in which sometimes it is included in the stat, and sometimes it's not, seems inherently flawed.

Much like FIP.  Sometimes 370 foot line drives are included, and sometimes they're not.  

In fact, FIP is much dumber than BABIP because it's purpose is to measure a pitcher's effectiveness by removing fielding from the equation.  A hard hit line drive that hits a foot from the top of the LCF wall should not be treated differently from the EXACT SAME hit that is hit in a park where the wall is two feet shorter.

I seem to recall already having this discussion about FIP under his alter ego other ID.

So...you hate the "home run" stat?

Is that what I said?

Stop acting stupid.  I'll give you more credit than that.  Don't keep dropping down to BL level stupidity in your arguments.

"Any statistic where a batter can hit a screaming line drive 370 feet in fair territory, in which sometimes it is included in the stat, and sometimes it's not, seems inherently flawed."

Is the "home run" stat inherently flawed?