Posted by emy1013 on 8/8/2014 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 8/8/2014 2:59:00 PM (view original):

Posted by emy1013 on 8/8/2014 2:39:00 AM (view original):

Posted by kbc167 on 8/8/2014 12:15:00 AM (view original):
Don't we want this game to emulate real life college basketball more than it doesn't. What is college basketball if not unpredictable? I would guess that HD has some variable in it of chance. Sometimes the better team will lose a game they should win. It happens all the time in real life basketball and it happens in HD. I've seen 30+ point favorites lose inexplicably. Some times good teams have bad shooting nights or a key player is injured or the coach doesn't game plan properly or whatever. The variables are what make the game interesting. Otherwise just having the most talent would always mean you win. And that is supremely boring. And it's not representative of real life basketball. It's also about strategy, having the right talent in the right places, and so much more.

Finally it's about match ups (like in real life). Maybe wizards team was not one of the 4 best teams in that world that season. Maybe they just got favorable match ups, some luck, and benefited from excellent coaching. Sounds reasonable to me. I, for one, congratulate him on his success. Those who want to tear it down need to chill out. Instead of trashing someone else's success at a very tough game, why not boost him up. How many of you in his shoes would be apologizing for winning? He won and made the final 4. Get over it.

So no one can post a dissenting opinion?  Everything has to be warm and fuzzy all the time?  THAT sounds supremely boring.  Sorry kbc, but everyone isn't going to agree about everything all the time, just how life is. 

thats not his point at all. there is a difference between a dissenting opinion and blowing things out of proportion. our opinion is that some of you folks are blowing things out of proportion. a good coach managed to get lucky and win 4 games in a row - with the number of simulations in HD, its just not that big of a deal.

edit - hmmm, i didn't realize it was mostly just you with that opinion in this thread. for some reason i thought it was a handful of folks. never mind... 

And that's the key word in your whole statement, "lucky".  I don't believe in "luck" and I don't think "luck" should be such a factor in this game.  Again, your word, not mine. 

Before someone takes that and runs with it, no I don't believe the best team should win every time because as kbc said earlier, what would be the fun in that?  But I also don't think that a team with the ratings that Hartford had should be able to knock off three far superior teams (I'm not counting the fourth team, Michigam, because frankly I don't think they were a powerhouse).  Everyone seems to be dismissing the coaches of the other teams and if you look, those are some of the best coaches in HD at the moment and really for all-time.  Wizard is a good coach, no doubt, I've been in a conference with him.  But the other coaches are not a bunch of bums.  It was pointed out that some of the teams Hartford beat had players that were tired and that therefore affected their ratings,  Point taken.  But even at that, those players would still have been equal to what Hartford was putting on the floor when THEY were fairly fresh and I can't imagine that with them running a FCP that they weren't experiencing fatigue themselves.  When you start with average (at best) and fatigue just a bit to mediocre, you simply shouldn't be able to beat the teams he beat.  You look at that team, with those kind of ratings, look at their opponents with their ratings, and explain to me with a straight face how Hartford didn't have half their team foul out, especially with them running a FCP.

By the way, just because it's your "opinion" that some folks are blowing things out of proportion doesn't mean that things are being blown out of proportion.  No one made you forum monitor, no one made you the authority on what is proportional and what is not.  If I wish to post MY opinion on the matter, who are you to say that it's right or wrong?  You may feel like I'm blowing something out of proportion, great, more power to you.  I don't happen to feel that way.  That okay with you your Majesty?  

Oh, and, if it's "not that big of a deal", why was a thread dedicated to Hartford's run?  Again, that Hartford team was close to a mirror image of a D2 team I have in Smith (Livingstone).  Think people would be a little up in arms if a D2 team made a run to the D1 Final Four?  Yep, me too.  It was an anomaly, a nice story, but something that shouldn't have happened.  Since it did happen, I feel like voicing my opinion and calling that out.  That okay with you Boss? 

Number one, the topics of all threads aren't big deals.

Number two, let's do some quick and dirty statistical analysis to help aid your acceptance of this result. Let's throw luck out the window because luck does not exist in reality. Probability, on the other hand, is a huge part of reality and more specifically, sports! It would be more than fair, given Hartford's performance during the season and level of skills, to say that they had at least a 10 percent chance of winning each of those games. And let's make it clear that each game is simulated in a vacuum; that he won his first-round game does NOT influence his chances of winning the second-round game. So, the Hoops Dynasty God reached his almighty hand into the bowl of potentiality and, with nine slips for Hartford's opposition and one slip for Hartford, pulled out Hartford's name. This process then repeated again, and again, and again, until finally Hartford's opponent came out victorious.

I can foresee the possibility that this analysis may be unsatisfactory to you, so let me ask you just one question to further assist you: Would you be just as outraged if Hartford beat the best one of these four teams during a regular season matchup? I doubt that you would and unless you would have been, it's illogical for you to be upset about Hartford beating four teams of similar skill level, because each game was played in a vacuum, with a result completely independent of the other. There would need to be a negligible probability that Hartford could beat any one of those teams for such outrage to be logical.

I'm not an idiot Car, I know that one game doesn't affect the next, but thanks for taking a condescending attitude in your post, really appreciate that.  You can do your "quick and dirty statistical analysis" all you want, I'm still not going to accept that Hartford should have made the run that they did.  Not against the teams he played.  And yes, were I the coach of one of the teams that he beat and lost to him in the regular season, I would have been ******.  I guess you never get upset when you have a team lose that should have won.  Never, ever crosses your mind, huh?  Right.

Obviously all topics of threads aren't a big deal, but for you to try to say that this wasn't posted because it was a big deal is just disingeneous.  It's more than obvious that the OP thought it was a big deal, hence the thread we have now.

I have never seen a result in HD that bothered me enough to incite even the slightest inclination to submit a ticket or complain on the forums.

And I've never even thought about sending a ticket myself.  What good would it do, WiS isn't going to re-sim the game.  But I've seen plenty of people complain on the forums and so have you.  Just because YOU choose not to voice your opinion on the forums doesn't mean that everyone has to line up like sheep and follow your example, right?  The word "luck" or "lucky" has been bandied about several times in this thread.  That says enough to me right there.  I just don't think that "luck" (which I don't believe in anyway) should be celebrated.

Posted by emy1013 on 8/8/2014 6:01:00 PM (view original):
I'm not an idiot Car, I know that one game doesn't affect the next, but thanks for taking a condescending attitude in your post, really appreciate that.  You can do your "quick and dirty statistical analysis" all you want, I'm still not going to accept that Hartford should have made the run that they did.  Not against the teams he played.  And yes, were I the coach of one of the teams that he beat and lost to him in the regular season, I would have been ******.  I guess you never get upset when you have a team lose that should have won.  Never, ever crosses your mind, huh?  Right.

Obviously all topics of threads aren't a big deal, but for you to try to say that this wasn't posted because it was a big deal is just disingeneous.  It's more than obvious that the OP thought it was a big deal, hence the thread we have now.

You still didn't address car's main point. This team had a nontrivial chance to win each of those games individually. You can say that probability was lower than 10% if you want, fine. But that still means that once in a blue moon, a team SHOULD be able to win four of those in the row. Even if the overall chance was 0.02%, if HD made sure it never ever happened, THAT would be the unrealistic model.

There have already been a couple thousand individual championship seasons in HD. What happened here isn't outside of the realm of what should happen once (or maybe more) within that large a sample size.

Posted by bhansalid00 on 8/8/2014 6:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by emy1013 on 8/8/2014 6:01:00 PM (view original):
I'm not an idiot Car, I know that one game doesn't affect the next, but thanks for taking a condescending attitude in your post, really appreciate that.  You can do your "quick and dirty statistical analysis" all you want, I'm still not going to accept that Hartford should have made the run that they did.  Not against the teams he played.  And yes, were I the coach of one of the teams that he beat and lost to him in the regular season, I would have been ******.  I guess you never get upset when you have a team lose that should have won.  Never, ever crosses your mind, huh?  Right.

Obviously all topics of threads aren't a big deal, but for you to try to say that this wasn't posted because it was a big deal is just disingeneous.  It's more than obvious that the OP thought it was a big deal, hence the thread we have now.

You still didn't address car's main point. This team had a nontrivial chance to win each of those games individually. You can say that probability was lower than 10% if you want, fine. But that still means that once in a blue moon, a team SHOULD be able to win four of those in the row. Even if the overall chance was 0.02%, if HD made sure it never ever happened, THAT would be the unrealistic model.

There have already been a couple thousand individual championship seasons in HD. What happened here isn't outside of the realm of what should happen once (or maybe more) within that large a sample size.

Yes, you're correct.  But I just don't think that THAT team should have won those four in a row against the opposition they faced.  Sure, it's statistically possible I guess, but that doesn't mean I have to like it or agree with it, right?  With that being said, I'll concede your point, yes it's statistically possible that that Hartford team makes the run that they did.  I'll also concede that were I one of the opposing coaches, I would have been pretty ****** off to lose that game.  I wish we could get Seble to re-sim those games 1000 times each and see what the results would have been.  Would have been very interesting to see how many times they actually were able to pull off those four in a row. 

I still disagree with the outcome, but you win.  By the way, thank you for the tone of your post, I hate being spoken down to.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8h-xEuLfm8

Posted by emy1013 on 8/8/2014 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 8/8/2014 2:59:00 PM (view original):

Posted by emy1013 on 8/8/2014 2:39:00 AM (view original):

Posted by kbc167 on 8/8/2014 12:15:00 AM (view original):
Don't we want this game to emulate real life college basketball more than it doesn't. What is college basketball if not unpredictable? I would guess that HD has some variable in it of chance. Sometimes the better team will lose a game they should win. It happens all the time in real life basketball and it happens in HD. I've seen 30+ point favorites lose inexplicably. Some times good teams have bad shooting nights or a key player is injured or the coach doesn't game plan properly or whatever. The variables are what make the game interesting. Otherwise just having the most talent would always mean you win. And that is supremely boring. And it's not representative of real life basketball. It's also about strategy, having the right talent in the right places, and so much more.

Finally it's about match ups (like in real life). Maybe wizards team was not one of the 4 best teams in that world that season. Maybe they just got favorable match ups, some luck, and benefited from excellent coaching. Sounds reasonable to me. I, for one, congratulate him on his success. Those who want to tear it down need to chill out. Instead of trashing someone else's success at a very tough game, why not boost him up. How many of you in his shoes would be apologizing for winning? He won and made the final 4. Get over it.

So no one can post a dissenting opinion?  Everything has to be warm and fuzzy all the time?  THAT sounds supremely boring.  Sorry kbc, but everyone isn't going to agree about everything all the time, just how life is. 

thats not his point at all. there is a difference between a dissenting opinion and blowing things out of proportion. our opinion is that some of you folks are blowing things out of proportion. a good coach managed to get lucky and win 4 games in a row - with the number of simulations in HD, its just not that big of a deal.

edit - hmmm, i didn't realize it was mostly just you with that opinion in this thread. for some reason i thought it was a handful of folks. never mind... 

And that's the key word in your whole statement, "lucky".  I don't believe in "luck" and I don't think "luck" should be such a factor in this game.  Again, your word, not mine. 

Before someone takes that and runs with it, no I don't believe the best team should win every time because as kbc said earlier, what would be the fun in that?  But I also don't think that a team with the ratings that Hartford had should be able to knock off three far superior teams (I'm not counting the fourth team, Michigam, because frankly I don't think they were a powerhouse).  Everyone seems to be dismissing the coaches of the other teams and if you look, those are some of the best coaches in HD at the moment and really for all-time.  Wizard is a good coach, no doubt, I've been in a conference with him.  But the other coaches are not a bunch of bums.  It was pointed out that some of the teams Hartford beat had players that were tired and that therefore affected their ratings,  Point taken.  But even at that, those players would still have been equal to what Hartford was putting on the floor when THEY were fairly fresh and I can't imagine that with them running a FCP that they weren't experiencing fatigue themselves.  When you start with average (at best) and fatigue just a bit to mediocre, you simply shouldn't be able to beat the teams he beat.  You look at that team, with those kind of ratings, look at their opponents with their ratings, and explain to me with a straight face how Hartford didn't have half their team foul out, especially with them running a FCP.

By the way, just because it's your "opinion" that some folks are blowing things out of proportion doesn't mean that things are being blown out of proportion.  No one made you forum monitor, no one made you the authority on what is proportional and what is not.  If I wish to post MY opinion on the matter, who are you to say that it's right or wrong?  You may feel like I'm blowing something out of proportion, great, more power to you.  I don't happen to feel that way.  That okay with you your Majesty?  

Oh, and, if it's "not that big of a deal", why was a thread dedicated to Hartford's run?  Again, that Hartford team was close to a mirror image of a D2 team I have in Smith (Livingstone).  Think people would be a little up in arms if a D2 team made a run to the D1 Final Four?  Yep, me too.  It was an anomaly, a nice story, but something that shouldn't have happened.  Since it did happen, I feel like voicing my opinion and calling that out.  That okay with you Boss? 

why can you post your opinion, and not me mine? how is this a right only you possess? i have respectfully disagreed with you, like a number of other coaches - you have to get snide and be a dick about it. i never suggested you can't post your opinion, please, stop constructing ridiculous straw men, its getting old - you are trying to make us look stupid, but you only have the opposite effect.

besides, you can't not believe in "luck" (definition - getting better than the expected value from one random value or from a series of random values) and still believe teams should be able to pull upsets. by what other mechanism would this be possible? you can't really not believe in luck by my definition, anyway. all you are saying is your line of sand is different than mine, which is fine, but its not something to get so upset about, and its DEFINITELY not something a rational person should be defending like its an absolute.

just because you start to sense you are wrong, that you are not convincing anybody - doesn't mean getting louder and being a ***** about it, is going to make your situation any better. it doesn't make us magically stupider so we fail to recognize your argument is total crap. 

have a nice day.

you do realize that you are very condescending, right emy? if not, then sit down for this one - you are very condescending yourself! its not exactly fair to be that way, and then get all huffy if someone else talks down to you.

If you didn't care what people thought, you wouldn't have written that much.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQhS2q7IHQM

As the first team that lost to Hartford in the run, I was definitely disappointed, but not shocked to lose. We had a higher overall rating, but his team had a lot of depth and better IQs than mine did. I was worried about that game before we played, although I felt like I would probably win. But I am also of the opinion that college basketball has its share of upsets, and I personally think that the number of upsets in HD is just about right overall. It stinks when it happens to you, but it's nice when you pull one. I also think he did a better job of game planning than I did, and if I remember right he made it very difficult to game plan against him by changing up his dist a lot. As for me, it worked out well in the long run because my junior PG that was on the fence decided to stay after we were eliminated in the first round, so Colorado is going to be incredibly strong this year.