Posted by MikeT23 on 11/10/2014 4:32:00 PM (view original):
That doesn't seem right.   If they're treating some of these games like elimination games and continue to put FSU at #2, it seems like Duke could jump a bunch of 2 loss teams by removing FSU from the ranks of the undefeated.

That is what I said.

You ended with "Even then it still might not be enough for the Dukies...."   Which, as I said, doesn't seem right. 

A one loss conference winner defeating the #2 ranked team on the last weekend.     I don't think Duke is a top 15 team let alone a top 4 but, thus far, the committee is showing that's how they're working.  

That said, the chance of Duke beating FSU seems remote even if Winston is shaving points for his buddy.    

Well it might not be enough.  That is what happens when you schedule Elon, Troy, Tulane, and Kansas in your non-con, play the 2 weakest teams from the other division, play in by far the weakest division of all of the major conferences, and lose at Miami by double digit points. 

You asked why a team like Michigan State would schedule Oregon, it is so they don't end up like Duke where beating the #2 team in the country on a neutral site to win your conference might not be enough to get you into the playoffs.

MSU, until their loss to OSU, would have been a 1 loss conference champ with victories over perennial powerhouses Jax State, Wyoming and Eastern Michigan.  And we would have done everything possible to warrant their inclusion.

Fact is, you're doing the "eyeball test" that you criticized me for when I kept claiming Bama was a top 4 team.  

Bama, should they be a 1 loss conference champ, will have beaten Florida Atlantic, Southern Miss and Western Carolina.
Baylor will have taken down SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo.

Let's not pretend Duke would be excluded due to non-con.   Duke would be excluded because no one outside of Durham thinks they're a top 4 team.   And you'd probably have to search hard to find people in Durham who believe that.

It has nothing to do with the eyeball test.  Duke has played 1 team that is ranked at the moment (GA Tech) and only has one ranked opponent left on its schedule.  It's non-conference schedule was terrible and its conference schedule was terrible.  It would literally only have the Florida State victory as worth mentioning.  You could make a solid argument that despite being beaten by Duke that FSU would be more deserving of a spot in the playoff based on the overall quality of its schedule (better loss, significantly more top end victories, better overall schedule, etc.). 

Also glad to see you are back to your usual of only reading part of a statement and then making gross leaps in logic to fit whatever you think was said.  Let's try this again. 

"That is what happens when you schedule Elon, Troy, Tulane, and Kansas in your non-con, play the 2 weakest teams from the other division, play in by far the weakest division of all of the major conferences, and lose at Miami by double digit points."

Now make sure your read the whole sentence and don't just stop after the first part.

Here, I'll play your game:

Strength of schedule:   Not so good
Head to head results:   Beats FSU
Comparison of results against common opponents:   Duke will have beaten all common opponents of FSU
Championships won:  Duke-1, FSU-0
Other factors:   We disagree on what this is but I call it "the eyeball test" and FSU will have won.  You refuse to eyeball a team

Worst case scenario, Duke is up 3-2 over FSU.   And, IMO, have the biggest one: H2H

my pointsystem created with my day off created these rankings
1 miss st - 10
2 TCU - 10
3 florida st -8
4 oregon - 8
5 alabama - 6
6 Baylor - 6
7 ASU - 4
8 Auburn - 4
9 Ohio st - 1

alabama would move up to tie for first with win and miss st loss would drop them to tie for 3rd

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/11/2014 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Here, I'll play your game:

Strength of schedule:   Not so good
Head to head results:   Beats FSU
Comparison of results against common opponents:   Duke will have beaten all common opponents of FSU
Championships won:  Duke-1, FSU-0
Other factors:   We disagree on what this is but I call it "the eyeball test" and FSU will have won.  You refuse to eyeball a team

Worst case scenario, Duke is up 3-2 over FSU.   And, IMO, have the biggest one: H2H

Actually Duke lost to Miami, which under this scenario FSU would have beaten.  But hey let's not let facts get in the way.

Posted by moranis on 11/11/2014 2:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/11/2014 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Here, I'll play your game:

Strength of schedule:   Not so good
Head to head results:   Beats FSU
Comparison of results against common opponents:   Duke will have beaten all common opponents of FSU
Championships won:  Duke-1, FSU-0
Other factors:   We disagree on what this is but I call it "the eyeball test" and FSU will have won.  You refuse to eyeball a team

Worst case scenario, Duke is up 3-2 over FSU.   And, IMO, have the biggest one: H2H

Actually Duke lost to Miami, which under this scenario FSU would have beaten.  But hey let's not let facts get in the way.

Fair enough.  2-2-1 with Duke winning the H2H and the ACC.

Make your case for FSU without the dreaded eyeball test. 

Win Strength in Order (3 common wins - Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Virginia not included)

Florida State - Duke
Notre Dame - FSU
Clemson - FSU
Georiga Tech - Duke
Louisville - FSU
Florida - FSU
Miami - FSU
Okie St. - FSU
Boston College - FSU
UNC - Duke
Pitt - Duke
Va Tech - Duke
Kansas - Duke
NC State - FSU
Tulane - Duke
Troy - Duke
Citadel - FSU
Elon - Duke

Order of Losses by strength
Duke - FSU
Miami - Duke


Let's put it this way, both teams finish 12-1, where do you think the computers would have them ranked?

Let's put it this way:  I just beat you head to head, for the conference championship, on a neutral field, 3 days ago. 

FWIW, Duke beating FSU in the CC would give the committee a solid reason to leave the ACC out.    It would likely open the door for the B10 winner or a 2nd SEC team.

Posted by MikeT23 on 11/11/2014 4:01:00 PM (view original):
Let's put it this way:  I just beat you head to head, for the conference championship, on a neutral field, 3 days ago. 

So if Missouri beats unbeaten Mississippi State to win the SEC, does Missouri make it in over Mississippi St.

or even a more similar comparison Missouri beats Alabama to win the SEC.  Missouri and Alabama thus have identical records.  There is one spot available for a SEC team, is it Missouri or is it Alabama (in this scenario just assume Miss. St. also has 2 losses)?

Would Mizzou have the same record as Miss St or Bama?