Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 2:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
Somebody who was one of the GOATs, suddenly unable to keep up:

Willie Mays, age 40: .271/.425/.482
Willie Mays, age 41: .250/.400/.402
Willie Mays, age 42: .211/.303/.344

Mays had a better year at age 40 than he did at age 36-39.  Age 41 was better than age 36 and 38 (although he only played half the season).  Not the best example.

I don't necessarily expect ARod to fall off a cliff like Jeter.  I didn't expect Jeter to fall off the cliff that hard.

Based on how you misjudged Jeter, maybe you should think about if you're misjudging your expectations for ARod.

Or are you just being stubborn?

No, I can just point to a lot of players who didn't completely fall off a cliff the moment they hit 40.  Like Mays.

Good for you knowing that was coming for Jeter. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 2:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 1:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 12:08:00 PM (view original):
I believe potentially being in better shape, and resting, is better than not doing those things for 2015. Unless you believe that his hand/eye coordination and reflexes are worse not just because of age, but ALSO because he didn't play in 2014. Which I suppose is possible.

I would assume he's taken batting practice, fielded grounders and thrown plenty.   I also assume none of this was in a game.    So do I think his h/ec and reflexes are worse for not playing?  No, he's done some work.   But the game speeds up in game situations.    I'm sure you know this.   You can practice all day but game situation is different.

My point is that ARod probably isn't the average 40 year old; the year off probably helped him, relative to other 40 year olds in baseball. 

I'm assuming most HOF-quality 40 y/o baseball players are not average 40 y/o baseball players.

Arod and Jeter are not in the same class of HOF quality players. Arod>>>>>Jeter.

Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 2:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 10/1/2014 1:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
Somebody who was one of the GOATs, suddenly unable to keep up:

Willie Mays, age 40: .271/.425/.482
Willie Mays, age 41: .250/.400/.402
Willie Mays, age 42: .211/.303/.344

.271/.425/.482 is all-star level for a third baseman in 2014. .250/.400/.402 would still be well above average.

Shockingly, you're missing the point.

When dropoff of performance happens for players approaching the end of their careers, it can be quite significant.

Mays' OPS dropped from .907 to .802 to .647.

ARod's age 39/40 season could see the same kind of dropoff that Mays saw from age 41 to age 42., especially when you consider his year off and his bad hip.

Obviously, the drop of can be significant. Or not, as you can see with your example of the 40 year old Mays.

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 2:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
Somebody who was one of the GOATs, suddenly unable to keep up:

Willie Mays, age 40: .271/.425/.482
Willie Mays, age 41: .250/.400/.402
Willie Mays, age 42: .211/.303/.344

Mays had a better year at age 40 than he did at age 36-39.  Age 41 was better than age 36 and 38 (although he only played half the season).  Not the best example.

I don't necessarily expect ARod to fall off a cliff like Jeter.  I didn't expect Jeter to fall off the cliff that hard.

Based on how you misjudged Jeter, maybe you should think about if you're misjudging your expectations for ARod.

Or are you just being stubborn?

No, I can just point to a lot of players who didn't completely fall off a cliff the moment they hit 40.  Like Mays.

Good for you knowing that was coming for Jeter. 

Like Boggs and Ripken?

And, if you would, please avoid using 'roid players as examples.   Because, in theory, those days are gone. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 2:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 1:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 12:08:00 PM (view original):
I believe potentially being in better shape, and resting, is better than not doing those things for 2015. Unless you believe that his hand/eye coordination and reflexes are worse not just because of age, but ALSO because he didn't play in 2014. Which I suppose is possible.

I would assume he's taken batting practice, fielded grounders and thrown plenty.   I also assume none of this was in a game.    So do I think his h/ec and reflexes are worse for not playing?  No, he's done some work.   But the game speeds up in game situations.    I'm sure you know this.   You can practice all day but game situation is different.

My point is that ARod probably isn't the average 40 year old; the year off probably helped him, relative to other 40 year olds in baseball. 

I'm assuming most HOF-quality 40 y/o baseball players are not average 40 y/o baseball players.

I'm unsure of your point.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 2:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 2:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/1/2014 2:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 10/1/2014 1:42:00 PM (view original):
Somebody who was one of the GOATs, suddenly unable to keep up:

Willie Mays, age 40: .271/.425/.482
Willie Mays, age 41: .250/.400/.402
Willie Mays, age 42: .211/.303/.344

Mays had a better year at age 40 than he did at age 36-39.  Age 41 was better than age 36 and 38 (although he only played half the season).  Not the best example.

I don't necessarily expect ARod to fall off a cliff like Jeter.  I didn't expect Jeter to fall off the cliff that hard.

Based on how you misjudged Jeter, maybe you should think about if you're misjudging your expectations for ARod.

Or are you just being stubborn?

No, I can just point to a lot of players who didn't completely fall off a cliff the moment they hit 40.  Like Mays.

Good for you knowing that was coming for Jeter. 

Like Boggs and Ripken?

And, if you would, please avoid using 'roid players as examples.   Because, in theory, those days are gone. 

Boggs works. He never "fell off a cliff" in the same way Jeter did and you expect A-Rod to.

Ripken doesn't work.

Mays works.

A-Rod has been in steady decline for 5 years.   FIVE YEARS!!!

What on earth would lead anyone to believe he's suddenly going to be well above average(which would be the only reason to accept the circus)?

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 2:46:00 PM (view original):
A-Rod has been in steady decline for 5 years.   FIVE YEARS!!!

What on earth would lead anyone to believe he's suddenly going to be well above average(which would be the only reason to accept the circus)?

Because, even in his decline, he's been well above average.

He hasn't had an OPS+ below 100 since 1995, and average OPS+ for 3B has been consistently below 100 for several years now.

He doesn't need to "suddenly" be well above average.  He's always been well above average.  Including 2011, 2012, and what he managed to play of 2013.  He just needs to not fall way off a cliff.

His 2011, 2012, or 2013 numbers would have made him easily the best hitter on the team last year.  He could decline meaningfully from those last 3 healthy seasons and still belong in the middle of the lineup.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 2:46:00 PM (view original):
A-Rod has been in steady decline for 5 years.   FIVE YEARS!!!

What on earth would lead anyone to believe he's suddenly going to be well above average(which would be the only reason to accept the circus)?

Because he'd be better than what you'd have.  If you're a team without an average 3B, A-Rod will probably be better.  Continuing his steady decline would give him a .735 OPS or so? And that has value at 3B. It's worth more than $6M.

Willie Mays (tec's example) improved at age 40.  Rickey would remind you that Rickey got better at age 40. Stan Musial had a beastly year at age 41. Harold Baines got better at 40. I'm not expecting A-Rod to get better, but if he does, he's a steal.  If he has a .735 OPS, he might make your team better.  If he falls off a cliff, ok, but even then he's probably not significantly worse than your alternative if you're SF without Sandoval, Milwaukee without Aramis, or Miami.

Sorry, that should have said "unhealthy seasons."  And if he's healthy in 2015, that should help compensate for some of the aging effects.

If he's not well above average, no one wants th ARod circus.    The Mets don't want it, the Orioles don't want it and whoever the hell BL roots for does not want it.

And no one would want it in order to "take a 6m chance". 

And, FWIW, the Yankees don't want it and they could damn sure use a hitter or 4.   They just don't have a choice.   In this scenario, every other team does.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 4:26:00 PM (view original):
If he's not well above average, no one wants th ARod circus.    The Mets don't want it, the Orioles don't want it and whoever the hell BL roots for does not want it.

And no one would want it in order to "take a 6m chance". 

$6m is incredibly cheap for a league average free agent. Without the baggage, he'd get $10-12m.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/1/2014 4:33:00 PM (view original):
And, FWIW, the Yankees don't want it and they could damn sure use a hitter or 4.   They just don't have a choice.   In this scenario, every other team does.

They could cut him and be done with it. The money is spent. If they legit didn't want the distraction, they don't need it. Bring back Headley, I like him.

Honestly, if I were running the Yankees, the crap he's put me through recently, I wouldn't want to deal with it next year. I'd probably cut him. That said, he's much less of a headache to pretty much any other team.