i dont think anyone is going to argue against the idea that Kentucky is a great team.
and I suspect very few would argue against them as the favorite (and those few are probably mostly biased)
but, to take them agaisnt the field is an entirely different matter.
bob makes a great point that it is not 1 against 67. but i think (my opinion) that bob is underestimating the likelihood of upsets.
i'll give bob round 1 (or whatever the heck they want to call kentuckys first game)... i gotta put the odds very close to 100% in favor of kentucky winning that one.
but even starting in the round of 32, i feel like some 8 or 9 seeds, if they get hot and kentucky plays bad, has some chance of winning. both A&M and ole miss took Kentucky to OT. I dont think either is going to make the tourney and i know for dang sure that they wont be 8 or 9 seed.
now you may say that kentucky will bring thier A game since its the big dance, but you never know and i say if they get in an OT game with an 8 or 9 seed, there will be a heckuva lot of pressure on them.
still, im not saying Kentucky will get beat in round of 32, just that their is slim chance they could... I say 5%
similar thoguhts for sweet16. i just cant go with the idea that they are 100% to win in sw 16. (as bob seems to suggest) I say 10% chance of losing.
and , just for symmetry , lets say they have 15% chance of losing in E8
20% chance of losing in f4
and 25% chance of losing in final game.
if you buy those odds, they "only" 44% chance of winning it all.
I happen to think their chances of losing are maybe even a little higher than what ive listed above, but even if you could convicne me that it was roughly 50/50 kentucky versus the field... i would go with the field becuase when you look at the history of the big dance, shithappens. what happens more often, that there are so few upsets that it surprises you? or that there are so many upsets or such big upsets that you are surprised?
To me, i feel like Georgetown 1985 and Unlv 1991 were at least as much of a "lock" as kentucky is this year, and we know how those stories ended.