I don't see this fully confirmed in elbirdo's experiment in statistical math (and perhaps abnormal psychology): "Pitch Allocation."

Are we all happy, thinking that pitchers hitting the mound at from 95% through 99% vitality can toss as many pitches per that particular game without penalty as if they came in at 100%?

I have a feeling you're asking this with regards to that Cubs team, so I'm sort of helping the enemy here, but it's always been my understanding that doing so will cause the pitcher to become fatigued, in-game, more quickly (they will get down to 90, 85, 80, etc. after fewer pitches). Considering that, I've always been able to get around it by setting them on a lower pitch count for the game. They are usually back in the swing of things for their next start.

Thank you Ozo. I'll entertain all discerning observations. Frankly, I am not at all confident that pitchers entering at 95%, or 96%, or even 99% are on the whole, as good as when they're at 100%, in the first place.

And no, this doesn't especially have to do with that team. Actually I'm in my second World Series in a row where I am messing up due to not having the answers to these questions.

And it could be that there are numerous of us who are very confident of the answers, who don't want to say, and that's alright too of course.

Maybe they just have the WS jitters.

Posted by ozomatli on 4/27/2015 6:34:00 PM (view original):
I have a feeling you're asking this with regards to that Cubs team, so I'm sort of helping the enemy here, but it's always been my understanding that doing so will cause the pitcher to become fatigued, in-game, more quickly (they will get down to 90, 85, 80, etc. after fewer pitches). Considering that, I've always been able to get around it by setting them on a lower pitch count for the game. They are usually back in the swing of things for their next start.

Any LIVE player can tell you this is distinctly untrue.  A pitcher entering the game at 95% absolutely will not fatigue on the same curve as a guy who entered the game at 100% and pitched down to 95%.  He'll follow the curve he would have if he entered at 100% - that is, it will move scantly, if at all, for a decent proportion of his appropriate pitches/game.  His quality of pitching will be the same as any guy at 95%, regardless of circumstances.  But if you come into the game in the 90s, you basically have the same number of pitches as if you enter at 100%.  Within 1-2 pitches for a short reliever, and I wouldn't even take 5 off the pitch count of a starter.

Thanks much, 'bater!

And without any refutation, that leaves the primary second question... are pitchers entering in the 95-99% range really as good as at 100%.

I have grave doubts... especially when they're on my teams!  

They're not as good, but they're not a lot worse...  If you were to do a deep analysis of your starters' performances against the same hitters as they fatigued, you'd certainly find more negative outcomes as they tired, but the margins are pretty small I think...  But yeah, a 95% starter would start out pitching like he might normally be pitching in the 3rd or 4th inning, in the 2nd he'd definitely be in the same neighborhood as a rested starter in the 4th, but by the 3rd he'd be maybe 4th/5th, and by the 6th or 7th (assuming normal pitch counts of ~15-18/inning) he'd probably be similar to a guy who started at 100% who was only 2-3 batters deeper into the game.

Not to be combative, but I'm fairly certain that's incorrect. Fatigue accelerates on Live, after all. Each subsequent pitch fatigues the pitcher by a slightly greater percent than the previous pitch did. This will, eventually, result in the fatigue-per-pitch curve for the pitcher who started the game at 95 to accelerate faster AND sooner than the FPP curve for the pitcher who started the game at 100. They will, in fact, separate further as time goes on until one reaches 0%, because pitcher A's curve both begins at a higher rate of acceleration (95% level vs. 100% level), rather than getting closer together. The closest they will ever be is at the beginning of the game.

In short: Pitch #1 for the 95 pitcher affects him slightly more than pitch #1 for the 100 pitcher affects him, and this difference compounds itself with each subsequent pitch they both throw.

Even considering that, though, the difference is small and I have never had any qualms starting pitchers who are slightly fatigued, albeit with a slightly diminished pitch count.

Pitchers who start the game at 95% pitch as if they are at 95% (which isn't 5% less effective)...........They remain at 95 % effective until their fatigue drops them below 95% and then they fatigue as any other  pitcher would.....They'll stay at 95% until the in game fatigue sets in.

That seems to be the prevailing opinion... except that my pitchers as a rule HATE ME when I tire them out just a teensy-weensy bit.  In fact, I suspect they tend to go Blacksox on me, for revenge.

I suppose I could install showers in the clubhouse, so they don't have to crowd over the groundskeeper's sink.

Play a couple of games in "Live" play Arlen, you can see how it works there. 

You may be experiencing small size or selective memory.  I have my pitchers almost always set at 93% and have never experienced a major impact of the minor fatigue.

You must give them a stipend for meals. I may do live again, to get more comfortable, thanks, but that requires hacker-bait Java....

$4 for lunch....the old guys love it, modern players not so much