How Fuzzy? Topic

hockey1984
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I know it's just a game, and WIS is obviously trying to distance themself from real baseball, but not knowing a good estimate of the current durability of a pitcher is a bit troubling.

Scout: you have to take a look at this kid. He was pitching great.

Me: fantastic. How many pitches did he throw his last game?

Scout: 60.

Me: no problem there. He will stretch out before he hits the majors. How many days off does he take between games?

Scout: oh........ I dunno. Somewhere between 3 and 8? I guess?

Me: This is what I pay $16 million for?!?
8/26/2015 8:36 PM
damag
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I've taken to evaluating projections by looking for what looks most out of place.  Anything that looks unbelievable, unreachable, or unexpected.

Using frymaster's pitcher as an example, two owners saw basically the same player except for durability.  One saw 34, which I would consider high, and the other saw 16 which would be troublingly low.  Turns out the pitcher is 25 which is basically normal.  The pitcher's very fine, the question is whether an unfavorable projection might make an owner decide to pass him over.

It seems to me kind of a guessing game... how exactly is the scouting trying to trick you?



8/26/2015 8:58 PM
frymaster99
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damag, that is exactly what happened. The owner didn't bid higher due to the durability alone, which isn't right considering he should've had more accurate ratings than I. Even showing a 20 durability would've probably made it more acceptable to the other owner.
8/26/2015 9:09 PM
hockey1984
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Posted by damag on 8/26/2015 8:58:00 PM (view original):
I've taken to evaluating projections by looking for what looks most out of place.  Anything that looks unbelievable, unreachable, or unexpected.

Using frymaster's pitcher as an example, two owners saw basically the same player except for durability.  One saw 34, which I would consider high, and the other saw 16 which would be troublingly low.  Turns out the pitcher is 25 which is basically normal.  The pitcher's very fine, the question is whether an unfavorable projection might make an owner decide to pass him over.

It seems to me kind of a guessing game... how exactly is the scouting trying to trick you?



Damag, I'm worried about how that may turn out though. In our Reily league I picked 9th overall and took. https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=7449501. I had him projected at a 22 durability which would have been fine by me with his other projected stats. My other choice that I ranked after Greenwood was https://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=7449512. Because Greenwoods stats looked better (my scouting also had Coleman at 22 durability). Had I known Greenwood was 15 and Coleman was 29 I would have easily picked Coleman.

Now, granted I only had HS scouting at $14 million, but from what I hear $20 million isn't much better.
8/26/2015 9:16 PM
MikeT23
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Year Rnd DT OvPck FrRnd RdPck Tm Name Pos WAR G AB HR BA OPS G W L ERA WHIP SV Type Drafted Out of
2000 1   1 FrRnd 1 Marlins Adrian Gonzalez (minors) 1B 41.5 1613 6047 286 .292 .864             HS Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA)
2000 1   2 FrRnd 2 Twins Adam Johnson (minors) RHP -1.1 9 2 0 .000 .000 9 1 3 10.25 2.05 0 4Yr California State University Fullerton (Fullerton, CA)
2000 1   3 FrRnd 3 Cubs Luis Montanez (minors) SS -1.2 129 305 5 .223 .586             HS Coral Park HS (Miami, FL)
2000 1   4 FrRnd 4 Royals Mike Stodolka (minors) LHP                         HS Centennial HS (Corona, CA)
2000 1   5 FrRnd 5 Expos Justin Wayne (minors) RHP -1.5 26 12 0 .000 .000 26 5 8 6.13 1.65 0 4Yr Stanford University (Palo Alto, CA)
2000 1   6 FrRnd 6 Devil Rays Rocco Baldelli (minors) OF 10.2 519 1910 60 .278 .766             HS Bishop Hendricken HS (Warwick, RI)
2000 1   7 FrRnd 7 Rockies Matt Harrington (minors) RHP                         HS Palmdale HS (Palmdale, CA)
2000 1   8 FrRnd 8 Tigers Matt Wheatland (minors) RHP                         HS Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA)
2000 1   9 FrRnd 9 Padres Mark Phillips (minors) LHP                         HS Hanover HS (Hanover, PA)
2000 1   10 FrRnd 10 Angels Joe Torres (minors) LHP                         HS Gateway HS (Kissimmee, FL)
2000 1   11 FrRnd 11 Brewers Dave Krynzel (minors) OF 0.2 21 48 0 .188 .486             HS Green Valley HS (Henderson, NV)
2000 1   12 FrRnd 12 White Sox Joe Borchard (minors) OF -1.5 301 716 26 .205 .636             4Yr Stanford University (Palo Alto, CA)
2000 1   13 FrRnd 13 Cardinals Shaun Boyd (minors) OF                         HS Vista HS (Vista, CA)
2000 1   14 FrRnd 14 Orioles Beau Hale (minors) RHP                         4Yr University of Texas at Austin (Austin, TX)
2000 1   15 FrRnd 15 Phillies Chase Utley (minors) 2B 61.6 1555 5765 233 .282 .846             4Yr University of California, Los Angeles (Los Angeles, CA)
2000 1   16 FrRnd 16 Mets via Mariners *Billy Traber (minors) LHP -0.7 96 21 0 .048 .139 96 12 14 5.65 1.59 0 4Yr Loyola Marymount University (Los Angeles, CA)
2000 1   17 FrRnd 17 Dodgers Ben Diggins (minors) RHP -0.7 5 7 0 .143 .286 5 0 4 8.63 1.92 0 4Yr University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)
2000 1   18 FrRnd 18 Blue Jays Miguel Negron (minors) OF                         HS Manuela Toro HS (Caguas, PR)
2000 1   19 FrRnd 19 Pirates Sean Burnett (minors) LHP 6.0 370 29 0 .069 .285 370 15 23 3.53 1.34 10 HS Wellington Community HS (Wellington, FL)
2000 1   20 FrRnd 20 Angels via Athletics *Chris Bootcheck (minors) RHP -1.5 91 2 0 .000 .000 91 3 7 6.55 1.66 1 4Yr Auburn University (Auburn, AL)
2000 1   21 FrRnd 21 Giants Boof Bonser (minors) RHP -0.5 111 6 0 .000 .000 111 19 25 5.18 1.46 0 HS Gibbs HS (St. Petersburg, FL)
2000 1   22 FrRnd 22 Red Sox Phil Dumatrait (minors) LHP -1.8 87 27 0 .037 .074 87 4 13 6.20 1.78 1 JC Bakersfield College (Bakersfield, CA)
2000 1   23 FrRnd 23 Reds David Espinosa (minors) SS                         HS Gulliver Prep HS (Coral Gables, FL)
2000 1   24 FrRnd 24 Cardinals via Rangers *Blake Williams (minors) RHP                         4Yr Texas State University (San Marcos, TX)
2000 1   25 FrRnd 25 Rangers via Mets *Scott Heard (minors) C                         HS Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA)
2000 1   26 FrRnd 26 Indians Corey Smith (minors) SS                         HS Piscataway HS (Piscataway, NJ)
2000 1   27 FrRnd 27 Astros Robert Stiehl (minors) RHP                         JC El Camino College (Torrance, CA)
2000 1   28 FrRnd 28 Yankees Dave Parrish (minors) C                         4Yr University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, MI)
2000 1   29 FrRnd 29 Braves via Diamondbacks *Adam Wainwright (minors) RHP 36.5 307 520 6 .198 .510 284 121 67 2.98 1.16 3 HS Glynn Academy HS (Brunswick, GA)
2000 1   30 FrRnd 30 Braves Scott Thorman (minors) 3B -0.9 175 415 16 .222 .667             HS Preston HS (Cambridge, ON)
2000 1s   31 FrRnd 31 Twins *Aaron Heilman (minors) RHP 1.8 477 47 0 .021 .083 477 35 46 4.40 1.36 16 4Yr University of Notre Dame (South Bend, IN)
2000 1s   32 FrRnd 32 Orioles *Tripper Johnson (minors) RHP                         HS Newport HS (Bellevue, WA)
2000 1s   33 FrRnd 33 Blue Jays *Dustin McGowan (minors) RHP 1.4 173 17 0 .118 .235 172 26 29 4.68 1.41 1 HS Long County HS (Ludowici, GA)
2000 1s   34 FrRnd 34 Reds *Dustin Moseley (minors) RHP 0.5 101 30 0 .133 .295 101 15 21 4.67 1.43 0 HS Arkansas HS (Texarkana, AR)
2000 1s   35 FrRnd 35 Rangers *Tyrell Godwin (minors) OF -0.1 3 3 0 .000 .000             4Yr University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Chapel Hill, NC)
2000 1s   36 FrRnd 36 Mets *Bobby Keppel (minors) RHP 0.3 49 2 0 .000 .333 49 1 5 5.36 1.66 0 HS De Smet Jesuit HS (Creve Coeur, MO)
2000 1s   37 FrRnd 37 Indians *Derek Thompson (minors) LHP 0.2 4 4 0 .000 .000 4 0 0 3.50 1.44 0 HS Land O'Lakes HS (Land O'Lakes, FL)
2000 1s   38 FrRnd 38 Braves *Kelly Johnson (minors) SS 17.1 1240 4177 142 .251 .754             HS Westwood HS (Austin, TX)
2000 1s   39 FrRnd 39 Rangers *Chad Hawkins (minors) RHP                         4Yr Baylor University (Waco, TX)
2000 1s   40 FrRnd 40 Braves *Aaron Herr (minors) SS                         HS Hempfield HS (Lancaster, PA)
8/26/2015 9:28 PM
MikeT23
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You were saying that HBD was trying to distance itself from MLB?   Picking a random year, it looks like a lot of 1st rounders never made it the bigs and many others made no significant contribution.     Do you think, because you budget 20m, that you should get sure things in the 1st round like MLB teams do?
8/26/2015 9:30 PM
MikeT23
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I bet the Royals said "**** yeah!!!  Mike Stodolka will anchor our rotation for the next 10 years!!!!"    And the Cubs said "HAHAHA!!  He sucks.  We got Luis Montanez!!!  He's gonna make Jeter look like a scrub!!!!"

8/26/2015 9:33 PM
MikeT23
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Giants said "BOOF BONSER, *******!!!!!"
8/26/2015 9:42 PM
MikeT23
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For a little "pat yourself on the back", this is EXACTLY what I said would happen when people were DEMANDING more randomness.    Random is fine when the other guy gets a turd but it sort of sucks when you get the turd with the third pick. 
8/26/2015 10:07 PM
hockey1984
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Posted by MikeT23 on 8/26/2015 10:07:00 PM (view original):
For a little "pat yourself on the back", this is EXACTLY what I said would happen when people were DEMANDING more randomness.    Random is fine when the other guy gets a turd but it sort of sucks when you get the turd with the third pick. 
Well said.

In terms of distancing itself from the MLB I meant more so how the sim has Tandems, how you don't have to offer a free agent a qualifying offer to get a pick when they sign with another team and how it seems now when my 19 year old prospect gets elbow surgery, Tommy John won't make him a better pitcher then he was before.

I just worry that now, the most useful strategy will be to let other teams grow prospects, crank the payroll to over $100 million and sign everyone who files for free agency at 29-32. Its ok if some teams are doing it, but I feel like now that number will significantly go up.

The other thing that kind of gets me about this too is that, I felt like before this update you were rewarded for actually spending time to organize and dissect the draft. It takes away from the reward of putting time and work in.
8/26/2015 10:21 PM
MikeT23
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More will take the FA route.   I'm pretty sure that's the case.   But, in this game, being contrary is a very good way to play.    Half my league says "Screw the draft", I'm going to up my Am. scouting.    While 20m might not guarantee success, it's still better than 2m.   And, in theory, I'll get more good, young players.  

At the end of the day, if your scouting says 90, it pays to put him in front of 80.    It just does until it's proven that it's TOO RANDOM. 
8/26/2015 10:25 PM
MikeT23
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The Good:  Tanking is less of a viable strategy.    1st is still better than 5th but 1st is no longer a 100% guarantee better than 5th.

The Bad:  Someone has to be the worst team in a world.  They don't have to be tanking.   And, with no guarantee of good, young talent, the future could look hopeless even after a couple of high draft pick flops.
8/26/2015 11:01 PM
hockey1984
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Posted by MikeT23 on 8/26/2015 11:01:00 PM (view original):
The Good:  Tanking is less of a viable strategy.    1st is still better than 5th but 1st is no longer a 100% guarantee better than 5th.

The Bad:  Someone has to be the worst team in a world.  They don't have to be tanking.   And, with no guarantee of good, young talent, the future could look hopeless even after a couple of high draft pick flops.
That's actually a big concern of mine. For a new owner who doesn't understand the sim, a few seasons of 50 wins with dud prospects and no understanding of IFA's or free agents could have them permanently turning away from the game.
8/26/2015 11:17 PM
dyoungquist
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After reading a lot of posts the last 2 weeks.....It seems that for scouting one needs to go all in or nothing, 20M or 0.  Trying to draft (or sign IFAs) with anything in the middle seems like you are more likely to win the lottery than get a good prospect.  Problem with that is when you take over a new team your scouting budgets start at 10 and can only move 4 per year.  That means you are screwed on getting any good prospects the first 2 seasons.  This will make it hard to rebuild poor teams and therefor poor teams are going to be harder to find new owners for.

I guess one could take over a team and run the 3 scouting budgets down to 6 the first year, then try to sign good free agents.  Problem with that strategy is if too many others are doing it bidding wars on FAs will become crazy.

The old system had some flaws.  Looks like the new system has flaws too.  Just too early to know if those flaws are any better or worse than the old ones.

8/27/2015 12:06 AM
MikeT23
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I disagree with that premise.   2 is better than 0, 8 is better than 6 and 14 is better than 10.    I've asked enough owners and know this to be fact.   Of course, 20m is going to be the best but it WILL NOT be perfect.   And, if you want HBD to vaguely mirror MLB, it shouldn't be.     As you can see from the randomly picked 2000 MLB draft, maybe 20-25% of the 1st 40 picked make an impact and almost half never sit on a BL bench.  

I hope HBD does a little better than that, for the reason hockey stated, but it appears the days of the first 10 picks being all-stars, the next 10 being full-time players and the final 12 being BL contributors is over.    And I think that's a good thing.
8/27/2015 6:45 AM
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