How many "low scoring" pitching games is the current Jay's staff capable of?

Not many. So they will need all of the offense that they can get. 

Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Well, OK then.

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 1:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Look at the Pythagorean win formula again and rethink.

I know the formula. I don't know what you're getting at.

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 1:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Look at the Pythagorean win formula again and rethink.

Pythagoras never hit a curveball.

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 1:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Look at the Pythagorean win formula again and rethink.

I know the formula. I don't know what you're getting at.

10-9 is not the same as 4-3.

Posted by tecwrg on 7/28/2015 1:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 1:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Look at the Pythagorean win formula again and rethink.

I know the formula. I don't know what you're getting at.

10-9 is not the same as 4-3.

Ok, let's let dahs answer before we go all crazy. I'm genuinely curious about his point. 

If you look at a full season of RS/RA for the 2015 Jays (pre-Tulo), you'd get something like 775 scored and 680 allowed. I'm kind of making those numbers up but whatever.

775 RS with 680 RA is a pyth of .565 or 91.53 (92) wins

If Tulo adds 10 runs of offense, with the same RA, they are at .571 or 92.55 (93) wins.

If, instead of Tulo, they traded for a pitcher who saves 10 runs, they are at .572, which is 92.71 (93) wins.

It's essentially the same. If the numbers were more extreme, maybe the result differs.

Posted by tecwrg on 7/28/2015 1:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 1:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Look at the Pythagorean win formula again and rethink.

I know the formula. I don't know what you're getting at.

10-9 is not the same as 4-3.

Also, what's the difference?

As you get to the extremes, you do get more variance.

If the Jays were able to gain 100 runs or save 100 runs, there is a difference. Gaining 100 runs of offense nets them 9 wins (92->101). Saving 100 runs nets them 12 wins (92->104).

But 100 runs in either direction isn't happening from one player acquired at the deadline, regardless of who they trade for.

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 1:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/28/2015 1:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 1:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Look at the Pythagorean win formula again and rethink.

I know the formula. I don't know what you're getting at.

10-9 is not the same as 4-3.

Also, what's the difference?

Pythagorean winning percentage for 10-9 is .552.

Pythagorean winning percentage for 4-3 is .640.

So "the difference" is .088.  Being able to win low scoring games should give you more success than winning high scoring games over the long run.

I don't think Hamels (or Cueto) delivers a difference of 2 runs saved per start. Maybe 1 run per start, but it's still probably slightly less than that.

Like l said above, at +/- 10 runs, the difference is the non-existent.

And that doesn't change in the postseason. It's still baseball. The team that scores the most still wins, whether it's 2-1 or 5-4.

Posted by tecwrg on 7/28/2015 1:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 1:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 7/28/2015 1:16:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 1:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/28/2015 1:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 7/28/2015 12:46:00 PM (view original):
Again, a run scored is just as good as a run saved.

Look at the Pythagorean win formula again and rethink.

I know the formula. I don't know what you're getting at.

10-9 is not the same as 4-3.

Also, what's the difference?

Pythagorean winning percentage for 10-9 is .552.

Pythagorean winning percentage for 4-3 is .640.

So "the difference" is .088.  Being able to win low scoring games should give you more success than winning high scoring games over the long run.

Please stop before you hurt yourself.