CS just got back to me, and claims that after ESF was removed from Notre Dame, SIMAI undertook NO additional recruiting effort (remember, ND was out of funds). They are apparently unable to explain how a recruit went from "I'm close to reaching a decision and I'm leaning your way. I just need a little more time to make sure I'm making the right decision" to signing with the SIMAI team a day and a half later, without any further effort being expended by Notre Dame.
I'm sorry, I just don't buy that. There are two alternatives, neither of which is very appealing: (1) CS is wrong, and for some reason they are lying to me about the SIMAI not undertaking any additional recruiting effort; or (2) it is somehow possible for a team you are leading in recruiting, to overtake you without additional recruiting effort.