Ahhh, thank you. I also found this site, where they have a similar table broken out by AL vs. NL for 1977-1992 (pre-steroid era). It was originally written from the concept that BUNTS ARE BAD, but the data is still interesting. LINK

To some of my other contextual points, they separate the data by BATTING ORDER, so the Strikeout vs. BIP changes depending on where you are within the batting order.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/23/2016 4:50:00 PM (view original):
The really retarded part of the BL/dahs argument is that you know there are 4 "stations" on the field. Moving to the next one is a plus. You have 3 opportunities to do this. Blowing an opportunity is a negative. But, even if you make it to stations 1-2-3, or help someone else do it, and fail to reach 4, you still contributed.

Teaching baseball to BL/dahs is like teaching Candyland to a 5 y/o.

The difference being, 5 year old's will eventually grasp the strategy of Candyland.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
You know what tec, you're right, both of those innings are equally bad for the offense.

I guess how you make outs really doesn't matter.

This.

See? I eventually came around to your way of thinking. It just took that great example of single/fly out/gidp vs 3 k's to convince me.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 6:03:00 PM (view original):

Posted by toddcommish on 6/23/2016 5:53:00 PM (view original):
Funny how Dahs says I'm juvenile when I'm asking contextual questions to heighten (everyone's) understanding of the situations.

Statheads love their "expected" runs, completely ignoring the reality of the situation, the pitchers involved, where you are in the batting order, the stadium you're playing in, home vs. road, and all the little details that make baseball worth WATCHING. Context MATTERS. A run in Colorado isn't the same as a run in the Kingdome/Astrodome (or whatever counts as the most pitcher-friendly park right now). A run in a game with Kershaw facing Bumgarner isn't the same as a run with Jose Lima facing Mike Hampton.

Even so, I'd like to see the situation-independent expected runs for an average team in an average ballpark for
- Bases loaded, no outs

- Bases loaded, one out (strikeout OR forceout at the plate)
- Runner on third, two outs (GIDP, with a run scoring)
- 1st and 2nd, one out (SacFly)
- 1st and 3rd, one out (SacFly deep enough for runner on 2nd to move up)
- 2nd and 3rd, two outs (nuclear option, after a 1-2-3 GIDP)

Runners	0 Outs	1 Out	2 Outs
Empty	0.461	0.243	0.095
1 _ _	0.831	0.489	0.214
_ 2 _	1.068	0.644	0.305
1 2 _	1.373	0.908	0.343
_ _ 3	1.426	0.865	0.413
1 _ 3	1.798	1.140	0.471
_ 2 3	1.920	1.352	0.570
1 2 3	2.282	1.520	0.736

So, if I'm reading this correctly...

Bases loaded, one out (after a K or forceout at home) = 1.52 runs expected
Runner on third, two outs (after GIDP, run scores) = .413 + ONE sure run = 1.413
1st and 2nd, one out (SacFly) = .908 + ONE sure run = 1.908
1st and 3rd, one out (deep SacFly) = 1.14 + ONE sure run = 2.14
2nd and 3rd, two outs (nuclear 1-2-3 inning killer) = 0.57

Interesting that a deep SacFly is almost a push to the original situation (2.282 vs. 1.14 with one run in the bank) : as is a strikeout and GIDP (1.52 vs. .413 with a run already scoring). It seems like a GIDP in this situation really isn't THAT MUCH WORSE than a strikeout.

So, with the bases loaded, the worst things you can do in order:
1. Chop it back to the pitcher, .57
2. GIDP 1.41
3. Strikeout, pop up, or force the runner at home 1.52
4. Fly ball (depth depends on the runner at 3rd) 1.908 - 2.14

These outs don't seem equal. Go figure.

Posted by toddcommish on 6/23/2016 5:53:00 PM (view original):
Funny how Dahs says I'm juvenile when I'm asking contextual questions to heighten (everyone's) understanding of the situations.

Statheads love their "expected" runs, completely ignoring the reality of the situation, the pitchers involved, where you are in the batting order, the stadium you're playing in, home vs. road, and all the little details that make baseball worth WATCHING. Context MATTERS. A run in Colorado isn't the same as a run in the Kingdome/Astrodome (or whatever counts as the most pitcher-friendly park right now). A run in a game with Kershaw facing Bumgarner isn't the same as a run with Jose Lima facing Mike Hampton.

Even so, I'd like to see the situation-independent expected runs for an average team in an average ballpark for
- Bases loaded, no outs

- Bases loaded, one out (strikeout OR forceout at the plate)
- Runner on third, two outs (GIDP, with a run scoring)
- 1st and 2nd, one out (SacFly)
- 1st and 3rd, one out (SacFly deep enough for runner on 2nd to move up)
- 2nd and 3rd, two outs (nuclear option, after a 1-2-3 GIDP)

I never meant to suggest that you were juvenile. Perhaps I should have been more clear. You're far more mature and generally polite than the overwhelming majority of posters here, myself obviously included.

I said your level of analysis was juvenile. The fact that you still think you were "heightening understanding" by restricting the discussion to yet another limited set of hypothetical situations and assuming that nobody else recognizes the difference between runs and expected runs further highlights that point.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 6:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
You know what tec, you're right, both of those innings are equally bad for the offense.

I guess how you make outs really doesn't matter.

This.

See? I eventually came around to your way of thinking. It just took that great example of single/fly out/gidp vs 3 k's to convince me.

Would it make a difference to you if Tim Raines hit the single, Kenny Lofton hit the flyout, and Edgar Martinez hit the GIDP?

Posted by tecwrg on 6/23/2016 6:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 6:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
You know what tec, you're right, both of those innings are equally bad for the offense.

I guess how you make outs really doesn't matter.

This.

See? I eventually came around to your way of thinking. It just took that great example of single/fly out/gidp vs 3 k's to convince me.

Would it make a difference to you if Tim Raines hit the single, Kenny Lofton hit the flyout, and Edgar Martinez hit the GIDP?

Nope.

Other than damn that's a stacked lineup.

not if the other 6 are mario mendoza types

Posted by tecwrg on 6/23/2016 6:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 6:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
You know what tec, you're right, both of those innings are equally bad for the offense.

I guess how you make outs really doesn't matter.

This.

See? I eventually came around to your way of thinking. It just took that great example of single/fly out/gidp vs 3 k's to convince me.

Would it make a difference to you if Tim Raines hit the single, Kenny Lofton hit the flyout, and Edgar Martinez hit the GIDP?

I don't know why, but when I read this I absolutely lost it. My wife came in and asked why I was cracking up. I don't think she got the explanation.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 6:45:00 PM (view original):
Other than damn that's a stacked lineup.

Please.

Posted by sjpoker on 6/23/2016 8:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 6/23/2016 6:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 6:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
You know what tec, you're right, both of those innings are equally bad for the offense.

I guess how you make outs really doesn't matter.

This.

See? I eventually came around to your way of thinking. It just took that great example of single/fly out/gidp vs 3 k's to convince me.

Would it make a difference to you if Tim Raines hit the single, Kenny Lofton hit the flyout, and Edgar Martinez hit the GIDP?

I don't know why, but when I read this I absolutely lost it. My wife came in and asked why I was cracking up. I don't think she got the explanation.

Try singing "This is the list of badluck's favorite things......"

Posted by wylie715 on 6/23/2016 7:22:00 PM (view original):
not if the other 6 are mario mendoza types

sorry, this should read "not if the other 6 strike out all the time.

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 2:59:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 6/22/2016 2:36:00 PM (view original):
Which is the more disastrous inning?

A: single, fly out, GIDP

or

B: strikeout, strikeout, strikeout

Inning A was worse for the offense even though zero runs scored in both innings.

If you ordered the 6 events from good to bad, they'd go:

1. Single
t2. K's & fly out
3. GIDP

How can anything BL says today possibly top this?

Posted by tecwrg on 6/24/2016 7:28:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 6/23/2016 2:59:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 6/22/2016 2:36:00 PM (view original):
Which is the more disastrous inning?

A: single, fly out, GIDP

or

B: strikeout, strikeout, strikeout

Inning A was worse for the offense even though zero runs scored in both innings.

If you ordered the 6 events from good to bad, they'd go:

1. Single
t2. K's & fly out
3. GIDP

How can anything BL says today possibly top this?

You're right tec. You did such a good job proving that an out is an out.