Methodology includes factors such as:
SOS(80% opponent win percentage and 20% opponent opponent win percentage) I use this as the "S" multiplier against other factors.

Win% on a 0-100 scale so the highest win% is 100(for example currently the undefeated teams would have a 100 for win percentage)

The following factors I multiply by the S multiplier before being put on a  0-100 scale as well as defense I invert since normally the lower the number the better, so I inverted them before scaling so that a team leading the nation with 8.7 ppg is scaled to 100 and a team giving up 45 ppg as the worst would be 1-10 range probably

Scoring Offense, FBS games only
yards/gm Offense, FBS only
Scoring defense, fbs only
yards/gm  defense, fbs only

Total offense and defense is calculated 70/30(70% scoring and 30% yardage)

Final Value is then 20% win percentage 40% total offense and 40% total defense.

You can't really compare year to year however since the scaling is based on a yearly basis and a 100 offense 1 year maybe only be scaled to a 94 another year.  What you can compare year to year is relatively how strong a team was to the other teams that year.  Such as Florida State's large gap between the rest of the teams meant they were truly the best team in the nation.  Compared to a year like 2012, where you have no real dominant team of the year with no teams over 90 and 3 teams very close at the top and 2 more not far behind.

Here are some previous rankings to get an example the results:

2012:

Rank	Name	F Value
1	Alabama	88.83047
2	Texas A&M	87.08469
3	Oregon	85.81197
4	Florida	81.23193
5	Notre Dame	81.09886
6	Georgia	79.65421
7	South Carolina	78.78693
8	Florida State	78.29612
9	LSU	76.84578
10	Stanford	75.73151
11	Kansas State	74.95642
12	Ohio State	73.71576
13	Clemson	73.58325
14	San Jose State	72.97265
15	Utah State	72.80565
16	Oklahoma	72.38379
17	Michigan	71.04853
18	BYU	69.6596
19	Wisconsin	69.21848
20	Cincinnati	68.95118
21	Oregon State	67.48685
22	Penn State	67.43782
23	Northern Illinois	67.19957
24	Nebraska	67.12541
25	Oklahoma State	66.75562
26	Baylor	66.57714
27	Michigan State	66.5571
28	Boise State	65.96315
29	Fresno State	65.40414
30	Arkansas State	65.21399
31	Syracuse	65.16857
32	Texas	64.56495
33	USC	64.18136
34	Vanderbilt	63.74883
35	Mississippi	63.59467
36	Rutgers	63.24502
37	Arizona State	62.67407
38	Louisville	62.63066
39	UCLA	61.80084
40	Northwestern	61.75136
41	San Diego State	61.1964
42	Kent State	60.87184
43	UCF	60.25337
44	Pittsburgh	60.14609
45	Arizona	59.89166
46	Mississippi State	59.88343
47	North Carolina	59.0428
48	Toledo	59.00872
49	Virginia Tech	59.00798
50	Texas Tech	58.88288
51	Tulsa	58.38879
52	Ball State	58.26103
53	TCU	58.25372
54	Missouri	58.16734
55	Georgia Tech	57.97699
56	Miami (Florida)	57.28748
57	Washington	57.233
58	Bowling Green	56.53573
59	West Virginia	55.78008
60	Louisiana Tech	54.49887
61	Louisiana-Lafayette	53.4044
62	Arkansas	53.27094
63	Iowa State	52.99479
64	North Carolina State	52.39098
65	SMU	52.28978
66	Tennessee	51.17445
67	Navy	50.81327
68	Ohio	50.79046
69	Duke	50.53131
70	Louisiana-Monroe	50.52119
71	Connecticut	50.09714
72	Iowa	50.07503
73	Utah	49.46393
74	Purdue	49.21849
75	Western Kentucky	49.17067
76	Middle Tennessee	48.89712
77	Minnesota	48.51152
78	South Florida	48.27098
79	East Carolina	47.90197
80	Virginia	47.84968
81	California	46.32822
82	Buffalo	45.88831
83	Auburn	45.76342
84	Indiana	45.52712
85	Nevada	44.64651
86	Troy	44.4641
87	Colorado State	44.36726
88	Western Michigan	43.91544
89	Rice	43.89911
90	Kentucky	43.61302
91	Miami (Ohio)	42.74984
92	Maryland	42.64469
93	Wake Forest	42.49217
94	Temple	42.44263
95	North Texas	42.39876
96	Florida Atlantic	41.72604
97	Florida International	41.39771
98	Army	41.35623
99	Memphis	40.95282
100	Texas State	40.85459
101	Wyoming	40.70417
102	Central Michigan	40.5364
103	Washington State	40.12663
104	Houston	39.89055
105	Boston College	38.73212
106	Air Force	38.0803
107	UTSA	37.75177
108	Kansas	37.3029
109	Eastern Michigan	36.70233
110	UTEP	36.69066
111	Marshall	36.60426
112	Illinois	35.27406
113	UAB	34.25127
114	UNLV	33.32568
115	New Mexico	31.62447
116	South Alabama	31.06653
117	Akron	29.52134
118	Idaho	29.33206
119	Tulane	29.16764
120	Southern Mississippi	28.85521
121	Hawai'i	26.5954
122	Colorado	24.91675
123	New Mexico State	21.22558
124	Massachusetts	18.17937

2013

Rank	Name	F Value
1	Florida State	97.80157
2	Baylor	85.32403
3	Alabama	83.88879
4	Michigan State	79.08871
5	Missouri	78.76418
6	South Carolina	78.4006
7	Auburn	78.39151
8	Clemson	78.27286
9	Louisville	78.17724
10	Stanford	77.84889
11	Oregon	77.08135
12	Ohio State	75.09713
13	Texas A&M	74.22706
14	Arizona State	73.84532
15	Oklahoma State	73.74576
16	Oklahoma	73.59929
17	UCLA	73.57611
18	Wisconsin	73.29204
19	LSU	72.53677
20	UCF	71.14547
21	Georgia	71.1448
22	USC	69.86459
23	Washington	69.48459
24	Kansas State	69.38925
25	Mississippi State	68.40947
26	Mississippi	68.27657
27	Iowa	67.8013
28	Notre Dame	67.76858
29	Arizona	66.99867
30	Bowling Green	66.11722
31	Northern Illinois	65.29968
32	Virginia Tech	65.12427
33	Houston	64.72381
34	Michigan	64.47836
35	Utah State	64.24504
36	BYU	63.77378
37	North Texas	63.73492
38	East Carolina	63.16222
39	Nebraska	63.15848
40	North Carolina	62.99583
41	Fresno State	62.53657
42	Toledo	62.48042
43	Texas	62.20335
44	Oregon State	61.53758
45	Marshall	61.3503
46	Pittsburgh	61.31741
47	Duke	61.17408
48	Minnesota	60.19973
49	Georgia Tech	60.10597
50	Boise State	59.69298
51	Florida	59.68177
52	Penn State	59.6134
53	Navy	59.50235
54	Texas Tech	58.60599
55	Miami (Florida)	57.81864
56	Rice	57.57344
57	Tulane	56.7305
58	Vanderbilt	56.22373
59	Ball State	56.01951
60	South Alabama	55.83404
61	Utah	55.80406
62	TCU	55.40976
63	Florida Atlantic	55.2696
64	Western Kentucky	55.23811
65	San Diego State	55.05724
66	UTSA	54.26948
67	Northwestern	54.24703
68	Boston College	54.05163
69	Washington State	53.83023
70	Syracuse	53.24807
71	Buffalo	53.15018
72	Arkansas State	53.05132
73	Cincinnati	52.98696
74	Maryland	52.69208
75	Indiana	51.99789
76	Tennessee	51.92236
77	Louisiana-Lafayette	51.22999
78	San Jose State	50.91611
79	North Carolina State	48.77745
80	Wake Forest	48.34102
81	Akron	48.12384
82	Middle Tennessee	47.84118
83	Arkansas	46.94887
84	Memphis	46.13646
85	Illinois	45.6797
86	Kent State	45.60298
87	UNLV	45.32868
88	Ohio	45.31811
89	South Florida	44.6063
90	Colorado State	44.44818
91	Rutgers	43.95432
92	Louisiana-Monroe	43.5241
93	Connecticut	43.51581
94	SMU	42.95274
95	Kentucky	42.84341
96	West Virginia	42.62663
97	Nevada	42.192
98	Tulsa	41.51827
99	Iowa State	40.89999
100	Colorado	40.87249
101	Temple	40.67522
102	Central Michigan	40.517
103	Virginia	40.03699
104	Texas State	39.08147
105	Troy	38.36064
106	Kansas	35.65638
107	Hawai'i	34.11209
108	California	33.74005
109	Purdue	31.72192
110	Georgia State	31.18953
111	New Mexico	29.61522
112	Army	29.44731
113	Wyoming	29.3562
114	Western Michigan	28.84946
115	Massachusetts	28.74797
116	UAB	27.68203
117	Louisiana Tech	26.1926
118	Idaho	25.30411
119	Florida International	23.4042
120	Air Force	23.24532
121	UTEP	22.07547
122	Eastern Michigan	20.50843
123	Southern Mississippi	20.34066
124	New Mexico State	19.90287
125	Miami (Ohio)	16.21274

2014:

Rank	Name	F Value
1	Ohio State	94.78116
2	Oregon	89.41723
3	Alabama	88.96386
4	Michigan State	88.69195
5	TCU	87.66736
6	Georgia	83.9655
7	Mississippi	81.72461
8	Boise State	81.16139
9	Marshall	81.13006
10	Georgia Tech	80.94592
11	Wisconsin	80.85223
12	Florida State	79.52846
13	Mississippi State	78.92524
14	Baylor	78.62566
15	Clemson	78.43293
16	Auburn	78.12569
17	UCLA	77.2485
18	Arkansas	75.879
19	Missouri	75.50826
20	Stanford	74.10588
21	Kansas State	73.48236
22	LSU	73.31432
23	USC	72.7834
24	Louisiana Tech	72.26917
25	Nebraska	71.87343
26	Louisville	71.47757
27	Florida	71.31083
28	Arizona State	71.29448
29	Arizona	70.04501
30	Utah	69.71188
31	Oklahoma	69.70693
32	Minnesota	68.47389
33	Tennessee	68.394
34	Miami (Florida)	68.15113
35	Memphis	68.11013
36	Notre Dame	67.96909
37	Texas A&M	66.97366
38	Utah State	66.87085
39	North Carolina State	66.36148
40	Navy	66.07218
41	Virginia Tech	65.7218
42	Boston College	65.67866
43	Air Force	65.65965
44	Colorado State	65.45002
45	UCF	65.44983
46	Penn State	65.4366
47	West Virginia	65.20135
48	Toledo	63.98581
49	BYU	63.34543
50	Washington	63.17274
51	Virginia	63.15997
52	South Carolina	62.3038
53	Cincinnati	62.00372
54	Michigan	61.61529
55	Northern Illinois	60.93485
56	Georgia Southern	60.66573
57	Rutgers	60.27533
58	Duke	60.08648
59	Louisiana-Lafayette	59.84422
60	Iowa	59.79878
61	Western Michigan	59.56203
62	Texas	58.98758
63	Western Kentucky	58.65467
64	Houston	57.98683
65	East Carolina	57.51125
66	Maryland	57.49144
67	Nevada	57.26329
68	San Diego State	57.03104
69	Oklahoma State	56.44649
70	Rice	56.18766
71	Pittsburgh	56.05826
72	Northwestern	55.94753
73	Temple	55.67322
74	Kentucky	55.15452
75	Central Michigan	54.59841
76	Illinois	54.50004
77	UAB	54.37759
78	Syracuse	54.36464
79	North Carolina	54.33973
80	Washington State	53.294
81	Middle Tennessee	52.91703
82	Arkansas State	52.76087
83	UTEP	52.07891
84	Appalachian State	51.98579
85	California	51.74973
86	Oregon State	50.47074
87	Indiana	49.99291
88	South Alabama	49.97795
89	Ohio	49.76556
90	Florida International	48.75253
91	Bowling Green	48.33863
92	Ball State	47.91704
93	Old Dominion	47.31206
94	Colorado	47.29785
95	Purdue	47.19034
96	Tulane	45.42668
97	South Florida	45.37806
98	Army	44.55929
99	Texas Tech	44.39231
100	UTSA	44.21876
101	Wake Forest	44.00373
102	Fresno State	43.98961
103	Southern Mississippi	43.84434
104	Louisiana-Monroe	43.70866
105	Vanderbilt	43.11662
106	New Mexico	43.03928
107	Akron	43.00942
108	Wyoming	42.91264
109	Iowa State	42.52843
110	Texas State	42.40798
111	Hawai'i	42.2607
112	San Jose State	41.6403
113	Kansas	40.69325
114	Miami (Ohio)	40.18892
115	Florida Atlantic	39.32005
116	Buffalo	39.03875
117	Kent State	37.64032
118	Connecticut	36.60691
119	UNLV	32.14473
120	Tulsa	31.69497
121	North Texas	30.96901
122	Troy	30.56675
123	Idaho	27.24343
124	Georgia State	27.11854
125	Massachusetts	26.59347
126	Eastern Michigan	26.31209
127	SMU	24.21503
128	New Mexico State	20.99983

Some things I'd like is to factoring in Special teams, but I haven't figured a good way to incorporate special teams play in.  I also think with the results I have gotten, adding in special teams wouldn't provide enough more insight to be worth the effort)

I think I'd also like to value run offense a bit more like 55%-45% for compiling my offensive rankings.  I think theirs more correlation to stronger running teams with top defenses doing better than top passing teams in the post season.

Other things would be to find a way to make my data comparable cross years, I can probably just use my data before I put it on a 0-100 scale and then compare there which I'll probably work on now.

I'd also like to start making picks based off my rankings and see how they do, and then figure out a probability method based on their current F value.

Here is 2015 season currently for Week 9

Rank	Name	F RANK
1	Clemson	90.88134
2	Iowa	87.73487
3	LSU	86.69124
4	Ohio State	84.8899
5	Memphis	83.55819
6	Baylor	83.15686
7	Oklahoma	82.02176
8	Alabama	81.73508
9	Michigan	81.13932
10	Notre Dame	80.86763
11	USC	80.8449
12	Mississippi	79.99546
13	West Virginia	79.33024
14	Michigan State	79.27788
15	TCU	78.97992
16	Utah	78.84012
17	Mississippi State	78.19809
18	Florida	78.01109
19	Stanford	77.21714
20	Appalachian State	76.85292
21	California	76.67147
22	UCLA	76.10211
23	Oklahoma State	75.47112
24	North Carolina	75.27762
25	Texas A&M	73.62578
26	Texas Tech	72.44207
27	Florida State	72.18724
28	Navy	72.06725
29	Georgia Tech	71.99115
30	Oregon	71.87016
31	Temple	71.77963
32	Tennessee	71.71097
33	Wisconsin	70.5356
34	Cincinnati	70.35879
35	Duke	70.33091
36	BYU	70.08568
37	Penn State	69.84187
38	Washington State	69.63032
39	Pittsburgh	69.60687
40	Northwestern	68.42821
41	Boise State	68.24208
42	Toledo	68.24094
43	Western Michigan	68.12069
44	Georgia	67.99475
45	Western Kentucky	67.97216
46	Houston	67.9481
47	North Carolina State	67.87812
48	Arkansas	67.57861
49	Bowling Green	67.14611
50	Arizona State	67.02224
51	Indiana	66.72864
52	Auburn	66.51563
53	Texas	66.12262
54	Nebraska	65.84303
55	Louisville	65.31241
56	Utah State	65.28628
57	Central Michigan	64.89957
58	East Carolina	64.83746
59	Illinois	64.1063
60	San Diego State	64.06673
61	Georgia Southern	63.30915
62	Arizona	63.24677
63	Virginia Tech	62.77956
64	Kentucky	62.74962
65	Louisiana Tech	62.37879
66	Iowa State	60.62907
67	Washington	60.32757
68	Marshall	60.27801
69	Air Force	60.12972
70	Miami (Florida)	60.03855
71	Rutgers	59.4087
72	Minnesota	59.16251
73	Kansas State	58.93133
74	Ohio	58.7523
75	South Florida	58.49635
76	Tulsa	58.05218
77	Virginia	56.96779
78	Southern Mississippi	56.85203
79	Missouri	56.48365
80	Arkansas State	55.9344
81	Syracuse	55.88463
82	Maryland	55.71105
83	Vanderbilt	55.49084
84	Middle Tennessee	55.19814
85	Boston College	54.52631
86	Northern Illinois	54.47558
87	South Carolina	54.22054
88	Buffalo	53.04384
89	Akron	51.60552
90	SMU	49.60695
91	Colorado State	49.40893
92	Massachusetts	49.2454
93	Texas State	48.86116
94	Purdue	48.78181
95	Troy	48.49985
96	Wake Forest	48.22635
97	San Jose State	48.02379
98	Oregon State	47.75842
99	Connecticut	46.90757
100	Florida International	46.51471
101	Colorado	45.71107
102	Louisiana-Lafayette	45.49541
103	Army	45.3471
104	Ball State	44.91118
105	Nevada	44.87377
106	Kent State	44.50661
107	Hawai'i	43.38932
108	UNLV	43.0435
109	Old Dominion	42.79547
110	Tulane	42.16672
111	UTSA	42.11346
112	Rice	42.05917
113	Idaho	41.45298
114	Wyoming	40.88636
115	South Alabama	40.8238
116	Florida Atlantic	39.21077
117	North Texas	38.12557
118	Louisiana-Monroe	38.12545
119	Fresno State	37.84346
120	Kansas	36.0356
121	Miami (Ohio)	33.96922
122	UCF	33.19284
123	Georgia State	32.73334
124	New Mexico	32.06122
125	Charlotte	31.95407
126	Eastern Michigan	30.92607
127	New Mexico State	26.03229
128	UTEP	20.30005

Here's the thing and I'll try to put it in a way that's not critical.

The end of season numbers are always going to be much better than in season results.   And you're liable to always end up with an outlier from a MAC or Sunbelt because they're not as deep as PAC12/SEC.    In addition, the more games you play, the better the average.   Running it up against weak sisters and then playing an equal foe will bring a team closer to what they really are.    There's no real fault in what you're doing, you've ended up the the NC in each of the last season, but it just won't work for predicting games(or, most likely, playoff teams).  

At least not until all regular season/conference championships are played.

Yeh using it to predict games wasn't my main project, my main project was just for ranking teams really.  Yep I know how more games provide more results.

Iowa being ranked #2 and Michigan St. being ranked #14 seem like a problem. 

And it isn't just this year.  I mean Baylor being #2 in 2013 seems really strange.  OSU being 12 in 2012 seems low given they were unbeaten.  FSU dropping to 12th last year seems low. 

I mean I guess a few outliers can be expected, but if all those outliers are outliers because of the same methodology, then perhaps the methodology needs to be adjusted.

Iowa is unbeaten and playing nobody.  I haven't even watched a game/looked at stats for them but I bet they put up a lot of points/yards.   MSU is a grind it out, play a close game team.   Baylor racks up points/yards.    OSU was unbeaten but they weren't a points/yardage machine.   FSU at 12th, given what they really were, doesn't seem that far off.

These outliers(Iowa, MSU, Baylor examples) are outliers for the same reason but I don't think you can adjust for them.   Maybe factoring turnover ratio in would help "settle" some of those but the formula he's using is reasonably accurate at season's end.

For me, this season's biggest outlier is Memphis.   In a H2H match-up(despite beating Ole Miss), I wouldn't take them over anyone until number 20 App State(another outlier) and then Navy.    #5 has to be better than that.

Iowa put up 62 against North Texas and 40 against Northwestern but hasn't been above 31 in any other game and won a game scoring just 10 points.  That puts that at 4th in the Big Ten at 32.9 points a game and behind both OSU and MSU.  Iowa is 4th in scoring defense in the Big Ten, again behind OSU, but ahead of MSU.  Yards per game, Iowa is 5th in the Big Ten again behind OSU.  Yards per game given up, Iowa is 3rd in the Big Ten and is finally ahead of both OSU and MSU.  Turnover margin, Iowa is 3rd in the Big Ten behind MSU but ahead of OSU. 

I imagine the fact that Iowa has played the three teams with the best record from its division is probably a huge factor (UW and NU are both 6-2 and Illinois is 4-3).  Plus Pitt is 6-1 is probably what boosts Iowa (though North Texas, Iowa State, and Illinois State are all super bad or FCS teams), but all reasonable metrics should have it behind Ohio State at a minimum.  

It's obviously not perfect lol, but I think the results are somewhat reasonable, with a clear few outliers(appalachin state is a joke, but the way they've played "games" the model, they have their blowout loss to Clemson, but otherwise have dominated every other game inflating their off/def even with their 122 ranked sos adjusted.

Iowa has the #13 SOS in my model since their OW record is 30-14(.682) and their OOW is 197-126(.61) and that gives them a SOS of .6676 since it's weighted 80-20.  They most likely are going to be undefeated going into the B1G championship game(Ohio State will blow them out, MSU will be close, and Michigan who can technically win it would also be a close game, or Michigan could blow them out possibly)

Iowa's offense is adjusted to be 19th and their adjusted defense is 4th.  and being undefeated which my model being 20% win% 40% offense and 40% defense they do extremely well since they are top 20 Offense and top 5 defense with an undefeated record.

Personally I do think Memphis is a top 10 team, and they have upcoming games to prove it against Houston and Temple(especially if they knock off ND), in the model they benefit from having the #1 offense(Baylor SOS is worse than Memphis so while statistically they are better their SOS multiple lowers them behind memphis) their defense is clearly weak coming in at #83, but they are undefeated.

Maybe I should make it 10% win% 45 offense 45 defense, but I want to see how this works for at least a week or two.

2012 Ohio State had #21 Offense and #32 defense.  which for the 12th spot is perfectly fine. Remember they only beat a 3-9 Cal team by 7, MSU by 1, Indiana by 3,  Purdue in OT by 7, Wisconsin by 7 in OT, and Michigan by 5.  They really only blew out 3 teams in Miami of Ohio, Nebraska "can't play big games", and world beater Illinois.  You might be remembering them too strong since they finished undefeated and #3.  Personally they would be underdogs against each of the fina top 13 teams.

2013 Baylor has #1 Offense and #28 defense, remember they were #6 in the polls before the Fiesta Bowl loss.  They blew out #10 Oklahoma and beat a ranked Texas by 20 as well.  Hitting 60 points in 6 games(2 G5 and 3 P5 and 1 FCS) with 4 being 70 or better.  I do not think they were #2 I think MSU was easily #2 and would've had a similar shot that Auburn had against FSU.

2014 FSU had #17 Offense and #33 Defense similar to #12 2012 Ohio State.

Here is current top AP top 10 and my AP top 10:

Iowa has play garbage teams, who have played other garbage teams. They shouldn't be rewarded for that. How you can put that in a formula though, I don't know. It's just another case of being able to make #s say whatever you want them to say.

You could adjust based on SOS to account for "garbage teams" but you start getting deeper down the rabbit hole when you try to make it "perfect".    As much as you guys complain about my "results aren't the only thing that matters" viewpoint to rankings, it seems like you'd be fine with an undefeated Iowa at 2.   After all, they have won all their games and they've done so convincingly(for the most part). 

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/29/2015 3:15:00 PM (view original):
You could adjust based on SOS to account for "garbage teams" but you start getting deeper down the rabbit hole when you try to make it "perfect".    As much as you guys complain about my "results aren't the only thing that matters" viewpoint to rankings, it seems like you'd be fine with an undefeated Iowa at 2.   After all, they have won all their games and they've done so convincingly(for the most part). 

The point most people are trying to make is that there is no "formula" or "rule" that can be followed when ranking teams. This ambiguity is why I actually like they "Good Old Days" when there was no Playoff.

My point has always been all wins aren't created equal.    When Ole Miss beat Bama, the QB was avoiding a sack and just flung the ball in the air.   Bounced off a helmet and into a receiver's arms for a 60+ TD.   Ole Miss wins by 6 and gets credit for 60+ passing yards that was nothing more than a fluke.  Their loss to Memphis didn't surprise me.   They just aren't that good and didn't "deserve" a high ranking.

You can't just say Iowa hasn't beaten anyone, statistically you have to provide a way to measure the SOS factor.

They've played 6-1 Pitt, 6-2 Wisconsin, and 6-2 Northwestern, all solid teams.

Baylor doesn't even come close to any of those teams currently and plently of people are fine with them at #2 in the real polls.

By your own logic Iowa should be above Baylor anyways lol, Iowa may only have 2 true "beatdowns" but Baylor hasn't even played 1 good team unlike Iowa.