Fun with the #1 Pick Topic

I'm pretty much settled on who I'm taking, but I think the group discussion is fun when other guys post these. I have the #1 pick, and we just got the draft list. Draft is next Tuesday.

These are the best gems my scouts unearthed after scouring amateur baseball diamonds from sea to shining sea:
CF: 97 overall; d ratings: 94rg, 82glv, 68arm, 62acc; 91spd; 86makeup; bat: 95con, 70pow, 85vL, 95vR, 91eye
RF: 91 ovr; d ratings: 56r, 51g, 74arm, 58acc; 72spd; 89makeup; bat: 85c, 86p, 91vL, 96vR, 85eye
RF: 90 ovr; d ratings: 63 55 85 63; 92 spd; 37 makeup; bat: 100 63 93/85 45
LF/2B: 86 ovr; d ratings: 82 83 55 48; 68 spd; 89 makeup; bat: 78 44 63/90 100
P: 84 ovr; 35/76 dur/sta, 76 ctr, 83/80 vL/vR, 32vel, 79GB, 92-86-63-56-0 pitches, 99 health, 98 makeup
2/23/2016 12:23 PM
Seems like a no-brainer. I'd rank them CF, P, RF. LF, RF
2/23/2016 1:14 PM
Are these high school players, college players, or a mix? What's your scouting budget? And what are the ages of the players (if they are college)?
2/23/2016 1:32 PM
The CF or the pitcher. No reason to put those others in the discussion.
2/23/2016 1:39 PM
I posted the top 5 guys before digging into the list and re-ranking. I'm most likely taking the CF, and right now I have a different pitcher ranked #2 (IMO, there are 3 similar talent level pitchers and I have them 2-4 behind the CF).

Here's the P I currently have at #2:

84 ovr; 29/74 dur/sta, 100 ctr, 76/81 L/R splits, 19 velo, 80 GB, 96-91-52-63-0 pitches, 85 health, 87 makeup

My ballpark is Coors, so that's one factor - although I am open to taking either a P or pos player 1-1, and want to take the best player available either way. I think the CF looks like he should be a good bet to compete for both silver slugger and gold glove in CF every season, which is more valuable than any of the pitchers I scouted, IMO.
2/23/2016 5:21 PM
Depending on how much was spent for scouting and where the $ were weighted, I'd say the CF is a no-brainer. You might also want to consider how your scouts performed the last few years for "approximating" the ratings for hitters v. pitchers.

Oh, and if you're in Coors, look for higher Velo numbers (which translate to strikeouts). Low Velo means more balls in play. More balls in play in Coors is a very bad thing.
2/23/2016 6:51 PM
With fuzzy projections I've now started to think, "if my scouts are 10 points high on every critical category, can the player still play?" Even by that test it's the CF... he's a very nice leadoff LF if your scouts were drinking themselves into very fuzzy projections when they saw him. After that, the RF with the insanely high-projected bat would still be an occasional all-star if your projections miss by 10; the pitchers are SP4s if the projections are very high; and the other two are bench players if you subtract 10 from all their ratings. You could be more than 10 points high-- your scouting budget is probably not more than $18M since you're in only your second season with the club-- but at some point you have to close your eyes and believe your scouts.

I'd probably go CF, RF1, then the pitchers (with the one you have ranked #2 ahead of the other one).

Please report back to us on what the current ratings turn out to be for all the players.
2/23/2016 7:55 PM
Found a guy who's climbed to #2 in my pre-draft rankings. Don't think I've ever seen anybody projected to reach 100/100 vLHP/vRHP splits, much less even get that close to those actual rankings, but he's projected to do so with 70 contact, 77 power, and 67 batting eye. He's listed as a DH in my draft ranking, but as a C when you open his player card. He has high PC so I think I'd be more than fine with his bat and PC compensating for his weak arm at C.

Bat projections: 70-77-100/100-67
Defensive projections: 11-36-55-59-81

"other": 72 dur, 100 health, 18 spd, 79 pat, 87 temp, 75 makeup, 77 base running, 53 push pull (13 bunting, but you'd NEVER want this guy bunting anyway)

What do you guys think of him? ($18M scouting on his type of player)
2/27/2016 9:57 PM
players from original post:
CF was Asher Perez. I took him #1 overall, but he hasn't signed yet. I'll post him once he signs.
RF1 was drafted #2 overall: Player Profile: Aneury Polonia - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports
RF2 was drafted #11 overall: Player Profile: Garabez Freeman - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports
LF/2B was drafted #20 overall: Player Profile: Len Uribe - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports
P was drafted #16 overall: Player Profile: L.J. Snyder - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

The other pitcher who became the top SP on my draft board went #9, but he hasn't signed yet.
The C with the 100/100 vL/vR projected splits went #6 overall: Player Profile: Douglas Mieske - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports

Here are my ($10M advanced scouting) projections for these guys now:
RF1-Polonia: def: 59-43-72-73; bat: 79-100-94/75-79
RF2-Freeman: def: 72-35-79-74; bat: 100-61-91/87-52
LF/2B-Uribe: def: 85-75-53-63; bat: 72-62-66/69-94 (definitely looks like he should stick at 2B)
P-Snyder: dur/sta: 23/85 - 75 control, 82/72 vL/vR, 20 velo, 79 GB, pitches: 75-72-50-44

C-Mieske: def: 3-28-72-71-73; bat: 78-77-100/100-69
3/2/2016 12:51 PM
(these were all college players. I had $18M col scouting/ $2M HS scouting - I inherited $14M & $6M. wouldn't have trusted $10M HS scouting that much anyway, so decided to work my way toward $0 HS and I'll probably stick in the 16-20M range for college scouting going forward.)
3/2/2016 12:56 PM
First of all, what a terrific draft pool. Based on my best guess of development patterns and their current ratings:

Polonia should be a Hall of Fame bat; you could play him in RF vs. RHP right now (at age 19) and it wouldn't kill you.
Uribe is a huge steal at pick 20. He will be a very good 2B/CF, high range and a mid 800s OPS bat.
Mieske is only a decent defensive C but should run an OPS near 900.
Snyder is 19 and is already a very good AAA pitcher; he figures to have a few seasons where he gets a Cy Young nomination.
Freeman wouldn't be more than a decent RF for a team that doesn't run a lot, but should hit .300 with a ton of SB at a very high rate if you run. He's the worst of the 5.
3/2/2016 6:05 PM
yeah, and I was only looking at college players ($2M HS scouting).

Here are the top 3 HS players who have signed so far:
Player Profile: Matty Lunar - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports drafted #3
Player Profile: Paul Creek - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports drafted #4
Player Profile: Angelys Berrios - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports drafted #7
(another HS pitcher was drafted #5, but I didn't scout him & he hasn't signed yet)
3/3/2016 8:36 PM
69 overall in rookie league, dang
3/6/2016 4:01 PM
Update on my #1 pick from a few seasons back
he had a monster season vs righties (but underperformed his ratings vs lefties) in helping us get to the WS
Player Profile: Asher Perez - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports
2/24/2017 7:25 PM
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