Posted by gillispie1 on 5/21/2016 8:25:00 PM (view original):
the fatigue/foul spiral is the only argument against the heavy minus, in my opinion. the guards who shoot 2s, are not a reason - for a non 3pt scoring guard, going - is at worst breaking even, and highly likely is a victory, on fg%. so, if you are going to get creamed on fatigue, maybe its too scary to take those fouls, but for a good, deep team (which is probably the only one that is particularly relevant, teams that aren't deep or are deep and mediocre are pretty much screwed), the heavy minus is a no-brainer, from where i'm standing.

Great point. You have to actually have a good team to start with. If you do, extra fouls from playing a heavy negative won't hurt as much as the rebounding and fg% advantages will help. If you give a lot of minutes to sub-40 defenders, you're toast against Dickinson anyway. Maybe there are ways for those teams to win against Dickinson, but I certainly don't know what they are.

To clarify my opinion... if you play a zone you should be playing Dickinson 2-3 -5 no questions asked, and if you play a press you should play Dickinson slow down -1 no questions asked unless you have great stamina on a 12 man rotation and if he is in a majority underclassmen cycle then I'll consider playing normal tempo. The issue for non zone teams is completely related to the fouls issue and has nothing to do with who scores his points. If you have a very good defense the only way for him to score on you is by getting you into foul trouble, so don't play into his hands.

Posted by jsajsa on 5/21/2016 10:18:00 PM (view original):
To clarify my opinion... if you play a zone you should be playing Dickinson 2-3 -5 no questions asked, and if you play a press you should play Dickinson slow down -1 no questions asked unless you have great stamina on a 12 man rotation and if he is in a majority underclassmen cycle then I'll consider playing normal tempo. The issue for non zone teams is completely related to the fouls issue and has nothing to do with who scores his points. If you have a very good defense the only way for him to score on you is by getting you into foul trouble, so don't play into his hands.

me personally, running press as i typically do, i would probably be looking to do a -1 against a team like that - because i'd be expecting to win a large majority of the time. i suspect the same is true for you. in press, when you are top dog, you have to play not to lose, not to optimize the average outcome, and avoiding foul/fatigue trouble is paramount in that effort. for a press team who is closer to 50/50 to win, which still has to be a pretty solid, deep team, i think heavier than -1 would be in order, because the goal would be more in line with optimizing the average outcome. it is definitely situational though, definitely depends on relative depth/stamina to some degree.

Posted by cburton23 on 5/21/2016 9:42:00 AM (view original):

Posted by zorzii on 5/20/2016 7:34:00 PM (view original):
If it's unfair just do the same. I command Mfnmyers for what he has done. He has a strat, stricks to it, more power to him. In D3, he probably does not shoot at lot but he has slashers that lay the ball in the basket.

How do the slashers get the ball in their hands with those passer ratings? And if they do actually get the ball wouldn't the pass be behind them or at their feet? And on the off chance they get a decent pass what is the probability they throw the ball off the backboard, or hit the bottom of the rim. God forbid they have to shoot a left handed lay-up.

Again, this is not a criticism of myers, I agree that he has done well, and it is not easy. The argument I am making is that it should not be possible. The NPOY has 14 total attributes for shooting the ball and shot 50%.

I guess the thing I'm not certain I've seen addressed here is why you have the perception that the guys with these passing ratings would be so inept. By no means is this guy a world beater but I guess for me to adequately assess your criticism I'd have to have a better understanding of what exactly a 26 passing rating and 45 ball handing rating mean in terms of expected results especially when combined with the 98 Athleticism, 59 Speed and the A+ IQ. The average RL D3 player with more that 250 possessions last season had a TO% of 14.6%, McKinney's was 14.2% - slightly better than average. That doesn't seem out of line to me given all of the attributes listed above and depending of talent he was playing against.

With respect to his shooting, that's a little bit more difficult for me to fathom but I think much of what I said above still applies. If we knew exactly what each of the ratings meant and how they morph together I'd have a better sense of how improbable I think this performance was but when I take a closer look at where he was taking shots from it's not as difficult to understand ... I don't think you can even look at his perimeter rating as having any impact at all on his performance and when you think about it is 50% really that great when so much of his shooting occurred in such close range? At any rate this was such an interesting case study to me that I put together The Anatomy of a Season of Kenneth McKinney:

Turnovers (112) Broken Down as follows:

Carry	1
Double Dribble	4
Ball out of Bounds	4
Loses Dribble	7
Travels	15
Steal	25
Off Fouls	8
Bad Pass	22
Pass Intercepted	25
3 Seconds	1

FG Shooting:

	Made	Made + Foul	Tot. Made	Missed	Total Att	FG%	Missed but Fouled (No Shot)	Adj Tot Shot	Adj FG%
Layup	34	14	48	48	96	50.0%	21	117	41.0%
Baseline	17	2	19	20	39	48.7%	15	54	35.2%
Dunk	13	2	15	22	37	40.5%	5	42	35.7%
Shot in Paint	14	2	16	20	36	44.4%	9	45	35.6%
Left Block	13	3	16	18	34	47.1%	11	45	35.6%
Close Range	12	6	18	15	33	54.5%	7	40	45.0%
Near the Basket	15	7	22	9	31	71.0%	16	47	46.8%
Right Block	13	5	18	11	29	62.1%	10	39	46.2%
In the Lane	10	2	12	13	25	48.0%	10	35	34.3%
Finger Roll	15	2	17	0	17	100.0%	0	17	100.0%
Tip In (Off Reb)	12	0	12	3	15	80.0%	0	15	80.0%
Undefined Area	0	0	0	14	14	0.0%	0	14	0.0%
Outside the Lane	2	2	4	9	13	30.8%	1	14	28.6%
Free Throw Line	4	0	4	5	9	44.4%	2	11	36.4%
Left Wing	2	0	2	6	8	25.0%	3	11	18.2%
Right Side	4	1	5	2	7	71.4%	7	14	35.7%
Right Wing	2	0	2	4	6	33.3%	5	11	18.2%
Undefined "Short Jumper"	0	0	0	6	6	0.0%	0	6	0.0%
Left Side	2	0	2	2	4	50.0%	0	4	50.0%
Undefined "Short Shot"	0	0	0	2	2	0.0%	0	2	0.0%
	184	48	232	229	461	50.3%	122	583	39.8%

How do you go 40.5% on dunks?

A good many were blocked I believe

watch out...its stat-a-gedon!!!

well, the stat about him having a very slightly better than average TO rate would be totally unjustifiable except for one salient point - this dude spent a LOT of his time playing against dead tired dudes. severe fatigue is a *huge* penalty in this game, and by the end of the half, this guy was playing against guys not much better (in their dead tired state) than a dude with 30 ath/spd/def who was fresh. maybe even guys who were worse than that. against those stats, who needs passing - just need the guy to be able to catch in the inbound, and he can go coast-to-coast. i suppose he'd dribble off his foot a decent % of the time :) but we have to remember also - a 1 rating is intended to be the starting point for college caliber players. its not like 1 speed is a 500 pound dude with a limp.

Posted by the0nlyis on 5/22/2016 12:11:00 AM (view original):
How do you go 40.5% on dunks?

And 50% lay ups is just as bad. Yet, 100% on the finger roll.

Those are all just window dressing. It's the same equation, just different words. For the most part

Posted by Trentonjoe on 5/22/2016 8:07:00 AM (view original):
Those are all just window dressing. It's the same equation, just different words. For the most part

i think its mostly window dressing, but im not 100% sure its all window dressing. i hadn't really thought of it this way before, but when seble mentioned that in zone defense, the def equations vary by distance, it made me wonder if there are basically a few messages for each tier of distance in the pbp as well, like there is for so much else in the game. before, i figured outside of 3s vs 2s, and offensive rebounds or whatever, it was 100% window dressing. and maybe it is, i really have no reason to think its not i guess - but knowing every shot is taken from a certain distance, i could see it being the case where you could get certain messages within 6 feet or something (dunk, layup, whatever), and then the jumper messages for 6-20 or something.

I never really thought about the shot location being window dressing. I would agree that there probably isn't much difference between a finger roll and a layup but I have always thought the Court was divided into offensive zones and I think it's more than just simply the difference between a two and a three. There is plenty of statistical data out there capable of providing breakdowns on frequency and shooting percentages from different offensive zones (from the wing, from the corner, from the lane, etc) on the court it would be a shame if that isn't somehow actually incorporated into the game itself.

I work under the assumption that there are shots in the paint, 2 point jump shots and 3 point jump shots.

I assume they all use slightly different formulas as well.