Julio Urias Topic

This kid might be special. He starts on Friday against the Mets. The Dodgers might end up with two aces again.

BL won't have an opinion because no one tracks WAR in the minors.
5/26/2016 12:27 PM
Juliomania just doesn't have a nice ring to it.
5/26/2016 1:25 PM
Posted by sjpoker on 5/26/2016 12:27:00 PM (view original):
This kid might be special. He starts on Friday against the Mets. The Dodgers might end up with two aces again.

BL won't have an opinion because no one tracks WAR in the minors.
Are you joking? I live in LA. This is huge. Did you see how dominating he was in the PCL? The ******* PCL. As a 19 year old! Syndergaard had something like a 5.00 ERA as a 21 year old in the PCL.
5/26/2016 1:42 PM
I wonder how much they will use him this year.

Berrios just got his *** handed to him and back to the minors. I think this kid is on another level though.

Love it when these hyped prospects finally make it up

if Deleon can stay away from arm trouble, dodgers are going to have three aces soon I think.
5/26/2016 1:46 PM
If he doesn't have a WAR, I don't want to hear about him.
5/26/2016 1:49 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 5/26/2016 1:49:00 PM (view original):
If he doesn't have a WAR, I don't want to hear about him.
True

Quote post by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:58:00 PM:

Posted by tecwrg on 10/3/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 10/3/2012 1:24:00 PM (view original):
Makes more sense to you because you're a statnerd. Playoffs makes more sense to me because I'm a team-oriented guy. If you're not contributing to a common goal, or you fail in reaching that common goal, you're less valuable.

The knock on A-Roid was always how he comes up big when it doesn't matter. A stat-compiler.

I'll say it again, Trout had a fine season. Not a historical season. Since he's not going to be on the TV in October, no one will remember his season in a few years. If Cabrera comes up big, or stinks out loud, in October, people will recall his Triple Crown or his near TC.
You're still downplaying Trout's performance by saying it's "not a historical season".

From baseball-reference.com, I'm only counting seven players in the past 40 years who have posted a higher season WAR than Trout has this season. And two of those are Barry Bonds' 'roided-up 2001-2002 seasons, so I'd throw them out.

FYI . . .

Joe Morgan (1975) - 10.8
Dwight Gooden (1985) - 13.0
Cal Ripken (1991) - 11.3
Roger Clemens (1997) - 11.8
Pedro Martinez (2000) - 11.4

For a position player, one can use these numbers to argue that Trout has had one of the three best seasons (again, discounting Bonds) of any position player over the past 40 years.

That can be considered somewhat historical.

A little more detail.

Position players since 1928 with WAR of 10.7 or higher:

Mike Trout (2012) - 10.7
Barry Bonds (2002) - 11.6
Barry Bonds (2001) - 11.6
Cal Ripken (1991) - 11.3
Joe Morgan (1975) - 10.8
Carl Yastrzemski (1967) - 12.0
Willie Mays (1965) - 10.9
Willie Mays (1964) - 10.7
Mickey Mantle (1957) - 11.1
Mickey Mantle (1956) - 11.0
Stan Musial (1948) - 10.8
Ted Williams (1946) - 10.7

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_top_ten.shtml

That's only 11 seasons of 10.7+ over the past 85 years.

Sounds "historical" to me.

Also, a couple of guys named Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby and Cobb also had a shitload (9, actually) of 10.7+ seasons between 1917 and 1927.

5/26/2016 1:57 PM
DeLeon is still an unknown. Not saying he can't be an ace, but Urias just seems to be 'it'.

Urias is the rare pitcher that has pedigree and consistent performance. And he has 3 ++ pitches.

And all while many of the other prospect pitchers on his level - Giolito, Glasnow, Appel, Snell, etc are walking a guy every other inning in AAA, this guy is pounding the zone.

And he's ******* 19. Crazy.

I'm hearing they are gonna be really tight with his innings. That said the guy really has a smooth throwing motion. No Ken Hill like mechanics there. So who knows...
5/26/2016 3:51 PM
While I agree on the Urias seems to be it, Deleon is far from an unknown, unless you don't follow baseball closely. He's a top 20 overall prospect and number two in an always seemingly stacked Dodgers farm system. Dude struck out 163 in in 114 innings last year. Right now it's looking like health is what's holding him back.
5/26/2016 4:16 PM
Here's the thing - I don't think Urias has 3 plus-plus pitches. I think he has one plus-plus pitch (the change). I think a plus plus breaking ball is hard and late. Urias throws a big slow curve. He throws it about as well as you can throw a slow curve - with excellent control and, most remarkably at his age, exceptional consistency - so maybe it's a + pitch. Probably so. But not ++. Similarly with his fastball, he commands it to both sides of the plate very well, but most of the time it sits around 93-94 without a ton of movement. A ++ fastball is at least a couple miles faster than that or with big movement. His change, however, fades like a mofo. And he paints with all 3.

Comps for Urias are still pretty solid. I'm basically thinking about command and control lefties who had a little more stuff than your average command and control lefty and added in an elite change. Tom Glavine and Johan Santana come immediately to mind. Those are solid comps, one a HOFer and one who was on pace to be a borderline HOFer until injuries derailed his career. Dodgers fans might also put Ryu in the same category, which is probably fair, though he had a little better fastball and a little less change. But we always tend to remember the best-case scenarios since they make the biggest impressions.

If I had to pick a pitching prospect right now to bet on to win 200+ games, I'd take Urias, hands down. But if I had to pick a guy to go to the HOF, I'd still take Giolito. He has much bigger stuff - harder heat, sharper breaking ball. He has more elite potential. I don't know that I'd ever be able to bring myself to trade one for the other if I had either of them - too much to like about each one, and you do tend to get caught up in the prospects of the guy you have.
5/26/2016 4:39 PM
Ben Badler and John Sickles both rate his 3 pitches as ++ so I'll take their opinion over yours.

As for Giolito, he does have the build as a workhorse, but I can see him breaking down. He already had TJ once and doesn't have the same kind of easy, repeatable delivery that Urias has. So HOF? I'm not thinking so. But who knows.
5/26/2016 4:53 PM
LOL. dahs talking about wins for pitchers. They don't matter. Ask BL.
5/26/2016 5:41 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 5/26/2016 4:39:00 PM (view original):
Here's the thing - I don't think Urias has 3 plus-plus pitches. I think he has one plus-plus pitch (the change). I think a plus plus breaking ball is hard and late. Urias throws a big slow curve. He throws it about as well as you can throw a slow curve - with excellent control and, most remarkably at his age, exceptional consistency - so maybe it's a + pitch. Probably so. But not ++. Similarly with his fastball, he commands it to both sides of the plate very well, but most of the time it sits around 93-94 without a ton of movement. A ++ fastball is at least a couple miles faster than that or with big movement. His change, however, fades like a mofo. And he paints with all 3.

Comps for Urias are still pretty solid. I'm basically thinking about command and control lefties who had a little more stuff than your average command and control lefty and added in an elite change. Tom Glavine and Johan Santana come immediately to mind. Those are solid comps, one a HOFer and one who was on pace to be a borderline HOFer until injuries derailed his career. Dodgers fans might also put Ryu in the same category, which is probably fair, though he had a little better fastball and a little less change. But we always tend to remember the best-case scenarios since they make the biggest impressions.

If I had to pick a pitching prospect right now to bet on to win 200+ games, I'd take Urias, hands down. But if I had to pick a guy to go to the HOF, I'd still take Giolito. He has much bigger stuff - harder heat, sharper breaking ball. He has more elite potential. I don't know that I'd ever be able to bring myself to trade one for the other if I had either of them - too much to like about each one, and you do tend to get caught up in the prospects of the guy you have.
Disclaimer - Dodger fan, hard for me to be objective

I think Urias gets the edge because he's so young. It's not unreasonable to think he'll be better than he is now by the time he's Giolito's age. Giolito is 21 and pitching well in AA. Urias is 19 and headed to the bigs after dominating the PCL.
5/26/2016 7:05 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 5/26/2016 5:41:00 PM (view original):
LOL. dahs talking about wins for pitchers. They don't matter. Ask BL.
Are you just hard when you think of me or do you actually finish in your pants?
5/26/2016 7:06 PM
It's not just about how good he is, it's about ceiling. Do you really think Urias is going to find the, what, 4 MPH difference between their fastballs in the next 2 years? Maybe he develops a sharp breaking ball, but I doubt it. He's not really a power guy. Sure, it's possible he's the left-handed Greg Maddux and grows into a dominant Major League starter. But it's a lot more likely that he isn't. It's not such a bad thing if he turns out to be the left-handed Hisashi Iwakuma. That's still a valuable pitcher, especially given how long his career is likely to be. But I don't see him as a guy that's going to pile up Cy Young awards in his career. I think too many scouts get caught up in results against younger hitters and don't project enough. Scouts said that Homer Bailey was going to be the next Nolan Ryan/Roger Clemens. How has that panned out?
5/26/2016 11:17 PM
I can't be objective regarding Urias, so I'll bow out of this and just enjoy seeing something incredibly rare tomorrow.
5/27/2016 1:07 AM
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Julio Urias Topic

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