If Harper starts hitting like last year then he's on the list. No doubt about it. But so far he's done it for 1 year out of 5. He's still 23 or 24 or something like that, so there's time. But right now I don't see him being in the top 3. Since 2013 nobody but Trout has hit better than Goldschmidt. Well, I guess you could make an argument for Miggy. But since he doesn't play the same caliber defense, doesn't run well, and is getting old, I don't see any way he fits into the top 3 at this point.

Posted by dahsdebater on 7/2/2016 5:12:00 PM (view original):
If Harper starts hitting like last year then he's on the list. No doubt about it. But so far he's done it for 1 year out of 5. He's still 23 or 24 or something like that, so there's time. But right now I don't see him being in the top 3. Since 2013 nobody but Trout has hit better than Goldschmidt. Well, I guess you could make an argument for Miggy. But since he doesn't play the same caliber defense, doesn't run well, and is getting old, I don't see any way he fits into the top 3 at this point.

If that's true, shouldn't FA hitters be lining-up to go to Colorado? Don't recall that happening.
As for your Bill James / bad_luck advance stat bull sheit, you can stick it somewhere. People can make numbers say whatever the heell they want them to say.
Remember, this is OPINION. There is no right or wrong

OPS+ is pretty simple. Anybody could understand it if they wanted to and weren't committed to hating "advanced stats" without any further thought.

Hitters aren't lining up to go to Colorado because they rarely win there and don't splash a ton of money around in free agency. But guys who do go to the Rockies tend to see their numbers inflate. Unless they're pitchers.

Here are some non-advanced stats: the Rockies have existed since 1993. During that time, they have the best team AVG and SLG and are 3rd in OBP. Aside from the Rays and Diamondbacks, who were formed in 1998, the only teams to have won fewer games since 1993 are the Royals and Pirates.

They score a ton and don't win. You don't think that reflects on the park at all?

The team ERA for the Rockies, all time, is 5.01. For what that's worth.

I worked making numbers say what I and others wanted them to say for almost 30 years, so I think I understand the stats just fine. It's just that I don't base my every opinion on them, because I know numbers lie. If simply playing in Colorado is responsible for the huge increases in Arenado's split stats, why doesn't that happen for all players in Colorado? He has absolutely nothing to do with it, right? No other MLB players have splits like that Home and Away, right? No pitchers thrive at Home but s*ck on the road, right? Conditions can undoubtedly make some difference, but if that difference varies from player to player, doesn't that indicate some of them are taking advantage of those conditions more than others? For instance, your precious Goldschmidt slugs 141 points higher at Home this season. Why?

I think you ironically already pointed out the difference. Players do hit better in Arizona than most places. But not that much better. It does indicate some adaptation to the park, very likely, if it's something that's persisted over multiple seasons. Could also be a small sample size effect this early in the year. But in Coors, everyone does hit that much better. It's not just Arenado. It's everybody.

Rockies all time at home: .298/.365/.485
on the road: .240/.306/.378

Remember how the Rockies were first overall in baseball in AVG and SLG since they've existed and 3rd in OBP? That's all because of the home split. They are the worst road-hitting team in MLB in every component of the triple slash. Dead last. That's how massive the Coors effect is. About 165 points of OPS for the average hitter.

Like I said last time: all you have to do to hit better in Coors is play there. It's not a skill. It's not something special Arenado is doing. It's the air. Simple as that.

Air makes you hit the ball more consistently? Wow, I want to see your advanced stat for that one.

Also, "Even after the park's inception in 1995, American League teams have consistently compiled higher batting averages and more hits than the Rockies.", so should we rule out all AL players?

That says teams, not players. DHs hit more than pitchers. So what? Among position players, the Rockies have the best batting average in baseball, like I told you. And the best SLG. And are 3rd in OBP.

Posted by all3 on 7/3/2016 10:34:00 AM (view original):
Air makes you hit the ball more consistently? Wow, I want to see your advanced stat for that one.

Also, "Even after the park's inception in 1995, American League teams have consistently compiled higher batting averages and more hits than the Rockies.", so should we rule out all AL players?

To an extent yes... in the sense that in the thinner air breaking balls don't break as far. But mostly it just makes the ball go further when you hit it...

Did all3 forget about DH vs P batting in the AL?

It's silly to argue with anyone who doesn't accept that Coors inflates numbers. They obviously have to put the ball in play but, when they do, the chances of a hit are better in Colorado.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/3/2016 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Did all3 forget about DH vs P batting in the AL?

It's silly to argue with anyone who doesn't accept that Coors inflates numbers. They obviously have to put the ball in play but, when they do, the chances of a hit are better in Colorado.

True, but the chance of a hit and/or a HR are also far better in some other parks than they are in say Oakland or LA.. We can accept that some players are fortunate enough to play in those parks, and give them credit for maximizing their opportunity, or we can try to totally dissect the game.

Hitting in Colorado isn't any more advantageous than a lefty hitting in Yankee Stadium or a rightty hitting in Boston. Reality is not WIS, so everything doesn't need "normalized" or "factored".

Posted by all3 on 7/3/2016 12:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/3/2016 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Did all3 forget about DH vs P batting in the AL?

It's silly to argue with anyone who doesn't accept that Coors inflates numbers. They obviously have to put the ball in play but, when they do, the chances of a hit are better in Colorado.

True, but the chance of a hit and/or a HR are also far better in some other parks than they are in say Oakland or LA.. We can accept that some players are fortunate enough to play in those parks, and give them credit for maximizing their opportunity, or we can try to totally dissect the game.

Hitting in Colorado isn't any more advantageous than a lefty hitting in Yankee Stadium or a rightty hitting in Boston. Reality is not WIS, so everything doesn't need "normalized" or "factored".

A lot of people take pitching stats from Oakland, LA and San Diego with a grain of salt as well.

Sure, players get credit for their performance, but if their is a huge discrepancy between home and away, then it's pretty easy to tell when a home ballpark is making a pitcher or hitter more effective.

Arenado's road stats tell you that he's benefiting from Coors. Just look at Machado's numbers. He plays in a hitter's park and his home splits are better, but the gap is not nearly as big.

Home:

.294

.344

.521

.865

Away:

.283

.332

.437

.769

His road numbers this year are pretty damn good - way better than Arenado.

See, I'd ask "Why aren't Machado's Home numbers better?". I feel all players should have much better Home numbers than Away numbers. They should learn how to utilize their abilities to take advantage of the place they play 1/2 their games. Goldschmidt obviously has this season, with his almost 100 point higher slugging %.