Posted by schwarze on 8/29/2016 8:31:00 AM (view original):
It's clear that the higher the cookie factor, the more success a person has...
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Owner_______	Factor__	Wins__	Avg12
rbow923	24.88	51	44
barracuda3	24.84	46
schwarze	24.56	43
mpitt76	24.56	41
The Taint	23.68	49
Chisock	23.60	44
jschirn	23.52	38
ballantine	23.24	39
ejstockman	23.04	43
kstober	22.92	46
doctorcc	22.92	39
firesalt	22.92	42
brucel	22.80	41	43
Relkcirts	22.72	43
ozomatli	22.52	53
XJchessman	22.52	44
nocomm999	22.52	38
jbohrman	22.40	42
slainte	22.36	47
batandball	22.32	41
midknight	22.20	40
calhoop	22.08	35
kelly1	21.84	47
bardin	21.76	50
WaitNSee	21.76	49	44
buddhagamer	21.64	46
duece_duece	21.56	47
crystalao	21.52	45
oskies	21.52	49
thejuice6	21.48	32
bottomlee	21.44	47
sprintracer	21.40	30
hacker7	21.36	45
frank_drebin	21.28	52
mildnhazy	21.20	45
frozen_rope	20.92	33
tridentric	20.88	28	40
justinlee_24	20.84	36
Fusion27s	20.84	43
skilly006	20.80	39
cstrohmier	20.80	39
PennQuaker	20.72	44
charliembg	20.48	37
bigmc	20.44	39
magicdreamer	20.44	48
KMJK4	20.20	43
bigsteve12	20.04	40
jfranco77	19.96	42
tigerrott	19.92	42	41
sjh0825	19.88	43
dougpalm	19.80	38
asufan04	19.76	43
thebubbaq	19.68	39
npg32433	19.68	40
jjgreen14	19.60	33
trd3	19.60	42
mllama54	19.60	53
mars2010	19.48	34
BullMoose	19.40	39
markeking	19.36	36
zephyr1949	19.36	38	38
rickysdad44	19.32	43
spoonfed	19.32	28
cubbies84	19.32	31
Jtpsops	19.32	40
bighooze	19.24	37
discodemo	19.12	50
mick33	18.92	36
Lazerhawks	18.80	45
beauchamp	18.80	40
DarthDurron	18.76	34
thehuseman	18.72	47
Jesters	18.64	36	37
EasyE7273	18.56	45
newarkwilder	18.24	39
robbman21	18.24	41
Jdh34	18.12	34
eschwartz67	18.04	36
glowguy	17.92	35
Humdogs	17.92	43
nordawg	17.88	34
daronb	17.80	39
odalisgagne	17.52	28
garmansouth	17.36	34
tjefferson	17.28	40	38
rmdriskill	17.24	44
dodgebob	17.12	33
deathdealer	16.92	30
DoctorKz	16.88	44
happyhours	16.64	33
fooolishfool	16.60	44
toddcommish	16.36	44
hersheybear	16.36	38
zlionsfan	16.20	33
Pebo	15.52	33
scottharra	15.32	37
.
Average	20.16	40.5

Actually the correlation between cookie factor and wins is only 0.4, which is weak.

Compared to the other two themes where I posted cookie factor (70M, 140M), this theme's correlation appears to be the strongest. Since the correlation range is -1.0 to +1.0, a +0.4 is still reasonably positively correlated. I wasn't expecting anything close to 1.0. The fact that we're almost halfway to 1.0 feels significant to me. Ideally, I'd like to make the grouping such that the correlation is 0.0. Maybe next time I do something like this, I have fewer choices in each group.

I thought that this was a very well-designed theme, particularly with the first few groups, because it forced people to make some hard choices and have rosters that look very different than rosters would normally at the $200+ million cap level.

I'm less convinced about the correlation of the cookie factor to wins because this doesn't pick up ballpark choice, luck, league/division opponents, impact of fatigue (primarily not drafting enough IP), and how each player is used on each team. A player who is on a roster riding the bench could have a high avg. wins total because of other people on the team as well as the factors noted in the previous sentence.

Ozo next time you get bored you should figure out the optimal lineup. Maybe utilize the WAR stat? That would be interesting!!

Would be interesting but not sure how I'd get access to all the team stats from the six leagues without having to manually click through each of the 96 rosters. I would probably use the RC27 stat since WIS doesn't track WAR (to my knowledge).

For what it's worth, I built a lot of teams while researching this theme and still have those files. Let's see...

The best offense I came up with (while still having a pitching staff with a team WHIP at .86 or lower is the following:
C - 1886 King Kelly
1B - 1885 Roger Connor
2B - 1901 Nap Lajoie
3B - 1912 Frank Baker
SS - 1896 Hughie Jennings
LF - 1894 Billy Hamilton
CF - 1911 Ty Cobb
RF - 1887 Tip O'Neill

That gives you a slash of .400/.468/.570 which, particularly in Municipal Stadium, will run wild.

BUT... that lineup takes into account + plays on defense. If I disregard that, too, I would rearrange things like this...
C - 1886 King Kelly
1B - 1920 George Sisler
2B - 1924 Rogers Hornsby
3B - 1899 John McGraw
SS - 1935 Arky Vaughan
LF - 1894 Billy Hamilton
CF - 1911 Ty Cobb
RF - 1887 Tip O'Neill

That lineup gives us a slash of .408/.494/.601 which I'd say is probably the best lineup you could get while still having a decent pitching staff (Elton Chamberlain, Babe Adams, Lady Baldwin, Randy Johnson, etc.). Could substitute Sam Thompson for Hamilton, but I like Hamilton as a table-setter with his great speed and OBP