The biggest surprise of the tournament is glowguy. His pre-season ranking of 70th doesn't seem out of line with previous tournament finishes of 84th and 55th. He's done an amazong job, with 5 teams winning 89+ games. Clearly, doctorcc was ranked too low (40th) but that is partly due to his 53rd place finish two years ago (his only tournament appearance). Based on just his sim winning% (.561), he would've been ranked in the top 20 without that mediocre finish in 2014.
That being said, it's always tough to get an accurate rank for new tournament players. For example, #10 jschirn (.573) and #13 deuce_duece (.568) look like they were reasonably ranked as they both are locks for round 2. But then you have #15 robbman (.575), #16 frozen_rope (.564), both who will finish in the bottom 20. That's why I put more weight on tournament performance, once that's available.