I'm thinking about demoting this guy, as I've just made a trade. Player Profile: Julio Ciriaco - Hardball Dynasty Baseball | WhatIfSports. He has high patience 97 and a decent makeup 81. What are the odds he gets a demotion penalty?

He's going to suck at the ML level, demotion penalty or no demotion penalty.

I don't think he'll suck, seems like a perfectly average pitcher on average or worse teams, but demotion predictions are very tricky and hard to nail down.

With 97 Patience he's unlikely to get a penalty. Players with higher than 65 (I believe that's the cutoff but could be off by a few points) rarely take a hit, but I don't know whether there's a sliding scale that makes 97 far less likely. I also don't see why he'd necessarily suck. His high ERA this season is probably just small sample size distorted by 1 or 2 HRs more than he'd allow long-term.

Thanks everyone for the thoughts.

I have demoted many a player and the cutoff seams to be 60 patience. If he is below 60 then there will a some kind of penalty. Normally 1 OA between 50-59 and below 50 it will be more than 1. I have not had a penalty at 60 or above. With 97 patience there is no way he will have a penalty. And I once had a bump with a high patience but that is not consistent as what actually triggers a bump when demoted.

Not that anyone cares, but he did NOT get a penalty in any category!

That's good data to know and attach to that high Patience. Thanks.