Posted by kcsundevil on 9/19/2016 4:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by rogelio on 9/19/2016 4:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by kcsundevil on 9/19/2016 1:59:00 PM (view original):
Respectfully, you're continuing to use the "coin flip" semantics to too easily dismiss the very real concern about noo recruiting being overly luck-based.
I do not intend to be dismissive. The question really boils down to whether any RNG for the assignment is "overly" luck based?
Take my example of Duke & UNC. Assume they both put in 100 HV, have identical Prestige, and ignore preferences. Should an extra 5 minutes promised or HV determine the outcome? Is there any situation where the designers should have the target recruit have to make a choice?
The way I understand 3.0, both players would be Very High in that scenario, and either choice would make sense.
If Duke is very high and Minnesota is high, should Minnesota ever win? I vote no, because "very high" and "high" should mean different things. What say you?
Ok. If this just a line drawing exercise and re-labeling, then we can agree. On an effort split (by virtue of prestige*conferenceprestige*AP*actions match equivalence), then there could be a RNG to determine the winner. The question, and seble considered this, how far does that go.
Admin has been, for good reason, not forthcoming in what the odds split between VH & H would be. To me, on a scale of 100, if Team A hits 90; Team B hits 80; and Team C hits 70, maybe you draw the line at "must be at 80% effort of the leader to be at 'high'". So, Team C is out and A & B are assigned odds of winning and the RNG happens. My sense is that the odds don't lean heavily enough to the VH over the H, but that may not be the full story.
So, there are separate issues (1) whether the VH - H - moderate - low - very low labels need to be re-labeled or clarified (everyone should understand that "moderate" or worse is out); (2) where the cut-off as a function of the leader is pegged; and (3) what odds are assigned to the RNG. I could happily agree with you on (1). I think you and I could agree on (2)...although WIS is not going to make that too clear. Not sure what you think of (3).
For (3), once the bar is set high enough to limit "high" as a function of the VH leader, I don't really mind the "high" team having some chance. Maybe the labels could be "Leader"/"Virtual Tie"; "Dark Horse"; "Backup Option"; 'Low Interest"; "Very Little Interest". Just thinking out loud on that.
9/19/2016 4:59 PM (edited)