Man, you're even more stupid than I thought. How do dice rolls work? There aren't probabilities? It is exactly a dice roll, using a RNG as the die.

I think if I were going to try to explain this process to someone who had no idea how it worked, a dice roll is exactly the analogy I would use. The number of faces each team gets is determined by their recruiting actions, but in the end, it's the random number that pops out of the computer that counts.

Posted by CoachSpud on 9/21/2016 3:38:00 PM (view original):
"To take a set of controlled determined steps and ..." ... sum them up into one result is neither a dice roll nor a coin flip. It is an expression of probability, a probability that each coach involved influences all along the way, totally unlike a coin flip or a dice roll. I think that's a big part of why the coinflip/diceroll argument gains no traction.

LOL

You guys pulling my leg? Or you really don't get it? Obviously scouting and recruiting are lengthy and involved processes, involving many judgement calls along the way, involving changes of plan and changes of focus on first one recruit and then another. You cannot simply ignore all that. You act like the list of recruits appears one moment and they each join a team in the next moment, with no process in between. That would be your "dice roll," and that is the farthest thing from the scouting and recruiting process.

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/21/2016 4:00:00 PM (view original):
Man, you're even more stupid than I thought. How do dice rolls work? There aren't probabilities? It is exactly a dice roll, using a RNG as the die.

Sure, the dice roll is the RNG .. and you get a number from 1 to 100 (or 1 to 6 or whatever).

The probability is in determining the lookup chart where you are going to lookup whether if you are rolling to get 1 to 100 .. and if you have 55% and someone else has 45% .. the the RNG does a lookup based on probability. And there is a 55% (0 to 55) percent change of getting said player while someone else has 45%.

With compters now, the RNG is usually 0 to1 .. so if you had two guys at Very High (say 45% and 40%) and another at high (say 15%) .. then the lookup table would be:

0 - .44 = Player One
.45 - .85 = Player Two
.86- 1.00 = Player Three

Generate a random number between 0 and 1 .. it is .43 .. player one wins.

That is 'based on probability'.

I know how it works...

Do you disagree that it's basically exactly a fancy dice roll?

An alternative description might be that we've replaced the old auction system with a raffle, and recruiting actions buy you tickets.

Of course, the problem with that is that if you don't buy enough tickets your other tickets don't count. It's a raffle with weird rules.

Well the problem is we don't know precisely when the raffle draw is... nor how many tickets they're selling... there's a moving floor on the number of tickets you need to buy in order to be eligible to win plus there's is only a single draw.

I guess one of my peeves about the new recruiting is it is a single roll (which gives a way wider variance on outcomes).

How many of us would like if WIS decided game results using a single roll whether you won or lost (or worse yet, if NT champions were determined again by a single die roll)?

Well in a way the national champions are determined by a dice roll (as hughes explained somewhere)

Posted by beachhouse on 9/21/2016 2:12:00 PM (view original):
If we all quit, hughesjr will be there to pick up the teams with the best chance of winning.

In Hughes defense, he's not the worst offender at that, not by a mile.

"Well the problem is we don't know precisely when the raffle draw is... nor how many tickets they're selling... there's a moving floor on the number of tickets you need to buy in order to be eligible to win plus there's is only a single draw." This is nothing more than playing a card game with the cards face down, and no one has any trouble with that. I think the people who want the cards face up would be disappointed if Seble did that and no challenges remained.

"I guess one of my peeves about the new recruiting is it is a single roll (which gives a way wider variance on outcomes)." The recruiting process is a single roll in exactly the same way that "Mississippi" is nothing more than the final "i," or a football game is nothing more than the final play from scrimmage. You are simply wrong to discount everything that goes before.

Needless to say, I don't agree with those opinions.

Posted by whitey34 on 9/20/2016 2:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by possumfiend on 9/20/2016 2:30:00 PM (view original):
You also realize that the team that is "ahead" isn't guaranteed to get the recruit, right?

In order to have a shot at any recruit you only need be listed as high. The leading team will always have the best chance. If you're both listed as "VH" there is no way to tell who is actually ahead, but you both have a chance.

That's what they said. If I'm very high and another is high and gets the recruit, I'll jump ship like many others. I'm not paying for a game that pulls bs like that. Now if we are all very high on same level then fine.

just signed #56 pg where i was `high` & the other human coach was `very high` ..time to jump!

no one is discounting everything that went before, in fact they are doing just the opposite, they are saying that everything that went before in recruiting had no resemblance to a dice roll, so why should the result be a dice roll?

Posted by vandydave on 9/21/2016 11:58:00 PM (view original):
no one is discounting everything that went before, in fact they are doing just the opposite, they are saying that everything that went before in recruiting had no resemblance to a dice roll, so why should the result be a dice roll?

Well, first of all, it isn't, as hughes and plenty of others have explained. Second, why would you prefer it that a team ahead in recruiting effort by 50.00001% to 49.99999% would win 100% of the time. That makes no sense at all.