He's got to be. Just read this -

"Harper slugged his way to MVP honors last season when he hit .330/.460/.649 with 42 homers, and he carried an OPS north of 1.000 as deep into the 2016 season as May 22. That’s an admittedly arbitrary endpoint, but Harper is hitting a pedestrian .235/.343/.398 in 96 games since that time. While his patience at the plate is eminently visible — he’s walked in at least 13 percent of his plate appearances each month the 2016 season — he’s showing a fraction of his previous power. Since the All-Star break, just 8.5 percent of Harper’s fly balls have left the yard. That’s a significant drop-off from the 18.6 percent mark he posted in the first half, and it’s a precipitous drop from the staggering 27.3 percent HR/FB rate he posted in 2015."

How's a young talent fall off that much? Prob injury. HH% is down. FB% is up. Thats not a great combination.

I know they are going for a championship, but if he's really having issues, he probably shouldn't be playing. Yet another reason why sometimes I think Rizzo is an idiot. Verducci's article on it is here.

Is May 22 considered deep into the season?

Looking at his career numbers, isn't 2015 really the outlier?


the real question might be: was Harper playing juiced in 2015?

IDK perhaps. The guy's got a lot of talent. I think he's hurt.

Im surprised Mike didn't bring this up, but Harper's avg exit velocity in 2015 was actually lower than what you'd expect given his results. Or, in other words, if you looked at his 2015 AEV and launch angle, you wouldn't expect a historic season.

This year seems like a correction of that.

So basically, Harper really is an overrated punk.

As I thought.

He might be a little overrated but a 23 year old with 21 career bWAR and a career 138 OPS is pretty rare. To put it in perspective, he's almost an entire year younger than Kris Bryant and has 1500 more plate appearances.

I'd rather say he's pulling a Hamiton or Anderson. That ****** people off more than discussing AEV.

BL will probably spooge his pants but something occurred to me after last night's game(mine) that hadn't before wrt AEV.

Staying within your "zone" will dramatically affect AEV. While I'd still want my run producers stepping outside of that zone from time to time, I think I get why they stand there and take strikes. It's selfish but there is a solid reason. If hitting the ball as hard as you can is your priority, you stay in that zone.

I don't get why that's selfish.

Because every swing doesn't have to be the best ball you've ever hit. You just have to get the job done.

It's a close game, runner on third, one out, bottom of 6th. We needed the run. I've got a 3-1 count. SS in in, 2B is at regular depth. Ball is probably a foot outside. I could just take the walk but, because it's softball, I know I can hit it to the right side. I thought I got a good chunk of it but it was nothing like my first three AB. 2B fields it, throws me out, run scores. The reason the walk wasn't better than a potential FC but run scoring out was because the guy behind me was fighting a hamstring and had already hit into a DP. We win by 1.

I could have selfishly taken the walk and claimed "3 for 3 with a walk." But that's not really the point.

Point was I was smoking the ball by staying in my zone. Same swing, same contact on the barrel but, because I was leaning way out over the plate, the EV was much, much different.

I don't know if it's selfish or not in softball, but in baseball, you're usually playing for more than just one run.

Situations where you need just one run are relatively rare, so it's almost always better to either walk or crush the ball than it is to hit a soft groundout.

I'm almost positive a run in baseball is far more important than a run in softball. They're simply harder to come by in baseball.

That said, if the other team scores 5 instead of 3 in the top of the 7th, that run seems less important. And, quite possibly, I'd have been better off walking.

Then again, not really the point. The point was I've never really thought about how much difference there was between a "best" swing and a "good" swing wrt exit velocity. I just thought putting the sweet part of the bat on the ball with a good swing would produce similar results. I was surprised by how much difference there was by going outside the sweet zone.