https://www.whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=6037123

This is the first time in my GD coaching career that I'm left this clueless in a game that I clearly thought was a mismatch in my favor. I feel like I'm LSU over here under performing with high level talent, but I clearly would love some explanations from a coach that has a ton of experience who understands how this could happen.

In this game, he threw the ball against me out of Proset with a primary focus on throwing to Long/Deep with unprecedented success. I've never in my 14 seasons have I seen someone able to throw the ball to the Long/Deep part of the field with sub-par offensive lineman, and consistently having the DL get a first step with such a high percentage. My defense is the best in D2 right now in terms of FIQ and talent, I have according to GUESS ~81, ~78, ~74 DL which can't be matched by anyone, his OL is (73,71,70,69,66) but somehow or another I was only able to get 3 sacks and he was able to maintain a 57% completion percentage even though he targeted a part of the field that normally gets the best players in the 40% range.

I attacked his defense from a 3-4 formation primarily which other opponents with weaker teams did, I pressured with 5 men on the line, 4 on the line, even 3 on the line and all in coverage. I even started blitzing him out of 3-4 in the 4th Qtr and tried playing PSM and PSL defense. Regardless if I dropped in coverage, pressured him with extra lineman, or even blitzed he was able to maintain a high level of success passing the ball Long, which in my experience i've pretty much written off as a viable passing option because of how low of a percentage you can normally execute those passes with any level on consistency.

I know this post is long, but it's extremely frustrating when you do all your homework have the superior players and get upset in a playoff game to a team that is clearly a tier below me. In the past I've been ok with lucky breaks, with turnovers and punt/kickoff returns or onside kicks beating me, but this lost isn't luck, I clearly could not stop the passing attack.


Before someone goes and attacks my secondary as they are the weakest point of my team and are the youngest players on my team, I've had weaker secondary that never got beat this bad. On top of that if you were to tell me that my opponent passes long and deep I would tell you I'm going to rack up the sacks or hurries which would normally give the opponent much lower than 57% completion %.

Hopefully someone has an answer to give me hope for the future!

David Ward.

well...I'm not attacking your secondary...BUT....they are the weak spot on your team, so in a way you've answered your own question. Your formation IQ's for your predominantly sophomore secondary were lower than those of his older WR's by a lot....that's the only thing I can see other than the fumbles and he kinda stuffed your running game a little. Without seeing your game plan and settings for short or long passes I really cant come up with anything else solid enough.

yeah...and David Ward..yikes !! 89 Pro Set IQ....id say he was the main reason

Well if that is impressive my Defensive Line that was unable to get to the QB frequently had FIQs of 92, 83, 81, my LB's were at 89, 87,79,67 and the secondary was the weakest but the CB's covering the WR were at 67 and 66.

You know what if this game was consistent with making mismatches work then I would be all for it, but so many times I have FIQ and GUESS ovr mismatches against my opponents and have never seen the success that his WR got in this game. Last season I had 3 WR's 74, 73, and 72 ovr GUESS and those guys couldn't even get any results like he got against competitive opponents.

All I'm saying is that if someone tells me if you have a WR who is a 70+ GUESS OVR and a FIQ of 89 then you will be able to successfully throw it long/deep with a high level of success then I would be fine with that, the problem is I've had superior players in superior situations and the results of throwing the ball Long/Deep have always been underwhelming, most of the time if they have a DL that is as good as mine you get sacked 10 times.

That is what sucks about this game, the entire game is a mystery about what works and what doesn't. If they broke down exactly how the decision process was being made on outcomes and everyone knew exactly how it worked, the game would be twice as fun.



The only question I have is his QB has 80 speed, I wonder if speed is part of the variables when calculating whether or not the pass rush gets a sack.

by the amount of sacks you have I'm guessing you blitz a lot. That leads to some long completions and big plays, along with the sacks!

MichStFan, I didn't blitz him until the 4th Qtr, blitzing on this game is completely flawed.

If you run the stats over 10k plays like I have you will see that blitzing YPP is significantly higher than not blitzing. Regardless, I played all players in Coverage , 2 LB's on the Line, 1 LB on the line and I blitzed in this game, and he still just waas able to pass deep/long with a consistency that doesn't make sense based on my previous experience with superior players.

Last year sometime someone mentioned the 'outlier' theory. Something they thought the developers talked about. That a couple of times a year your team will play way over their head and a couple of times well under their talent level.

I didn't put much stock into it at first, but, after being made aware of it I have experienced it. Where I play a team in season and win/lose by 40+ ...then play them in playoffs and have exact opposite result. Even though no changes were made on my part. I do believe it is in the game. Of course like everything in the game, there is no proof.

This game is entirely a series of "dice rolls" and "distributions of outcomes". Sometimes the you get all the "good ends" of the distribution...and sometimes you get all the "bad ends". Most of the time you get something in the middle.

There are also "levels of talent". In general you can look at team talent in "buckets" of 10-15 teams per bucket. Within each bucket....the chance of winning/losing is pretty equal. Between two adjacent buckets (say top 10 team vs a top 20 team) there is some chance of an upset...but its diminished. The farther apart the talent "buckets" are...the less chance the lower talent team has to win.

Those are just two items to consider at a "high level". The details matter as well....not one on one matchups...but settings vs settings, players on the field, and the actual plays called.

I have not looked at your team or your opponent...or the game in question. But if we all won the games we thought we should, based on talent on paper........

Harriswb3 in regards to what your saying about the distributions and dice rolls I get that 100%. I understand this tier system, they explained it in the dev notes on the beta for 3.0 of how you have different tiers on each matchups, like OL vs DL, and DBs vs WRs and I get all of that. That's why many of the comments of players that haven't experienced the game with the top 5 team matchups have been unable to experience enough of these types of games to even have a clue how the game works. It's as if when you play top 5 teams vs each other, a new game opens up. All of a sudden FIQ means a lot more and now, picking a play that is opposite of the def (RunVsPassDef, PassVsRunDef) becomes effective , etc. This part of the game only opens up when you play the upper echelon of games, only then does the slightest bit of game planning have true effects on the outcome.

For example, I can run PsM defense entire game and you can run the ball as much as you want and I can still hold teams in a lower tier to less than 2 yds a carry. But, if I employ this same strategy against a team that lands in the same tier as me, I'll get torched on the ground.

Another example, I've played my backups and same playbook all season until the playoffs, and have knocked off several human players who are probably game planning for hours and frustrated they can't figure it out, trust me I was there before. Essentially game planning is pointless against human opponents until the talent level on each roster are in the same tier, because if they are not in same tier the "weighted" dice rolls will always favor the better team regardless of how many hours you spend getting in perfect situations.

I just feel like the game has certain strategies that are pointless just because the game developers are unable to make it realistic and people who try to employ realistic football strategies are wasting their time. Just because I see the team has weak DBs and I pass the ball to the long part of the field to the WR's more frequently doesn't mean you get those dice rolls in your favor, but more than likely if you throw long consistently you get sacked. What I find fascinating in this game is that I wasn't able to get many sacks until I blitzed in the 4th Qtr. Because clearly my DL was winning the OL/DL battle when the play by plays read "defense line gets first step" that means that I consistently won that dice roll.

All quality coaches know that blitzing is pretty much pointless except in certain situations, the only situations that I've ever seen blitzing have a higher success than failure is this latest game when your opponent's QB has high SPD/ELU and you know he is passing Long, but if they pass short/very short/medium , you will get crushed blitzing. If they run the ball and you blitz it is very much not effective, and you will let up some very big plays. The blitzing part of the game is a bug that needs fixing, but there aren't any dev's that are working on this game right now, so it is what it is.

All I'm saying is people try to apply real life football strategies to a game that is clearly not able to deliver the quality in terms of making multiple strategies work. And I really wish this game was more like real life where you attack weaknesses and you get good results, unfortunately it's not that way.

A few more:

1. Blitzing always hurts more than helps.
2. Throwing Long is (until that game outcome) pointless and will lead you to many sacks
3. Throwing to RBs have much higher success rate than any other position
4. PassMedium defense is by far the best at defending even short passes and long passes.

These things are all facts that I have established after reviewing probably close to 100k play by plays of only human vs human games where the teams were both in the same tier (GUESS OVR of starting rosters within 3/4 points).

The only unique thing here in this game was the elusiveness and the speed of his QB which I think is the only reason he was able to throw long. The time it will take me to validate that having a QB with high ATH, SPD, ELU and GI as the only time that I should ever attempt to throw long will take a while because finding a perfect recruit that has those traits is going to be extremely rare.

That's why I came to the forums and was hoping some of the more experienced coaches who have played enough seasons like yourself could comment on if this is the reason that he was consistently able to pass so effectively.

Thanks for your input I really appreciate it.

It doesn't really change most of the important facts, but according to the game analyzer I got sacked 4 times and had to scramble 6 times in the 2nd H. It sure seems like I may have had a better reception rate than expected, though.

Your earlier statement covers things pretty well .... "That is what sucks about this game, the entire game is a mystery about what works and what doesn't. If they broke down exactly how the decision process was being made on outcomes and everyone knew exactly how it worked, the game would be twice as fun."

The game IS a mystery. There are hundreds of theories (some of them laughable), but no one actually knows. Lack of testing makes it even tougher to try and figure things out. Apparently long ago there was a testing mechanism in the game. Sadly it's long gone. I also agree with you that as a "football sim", the game is lacking football IQ

In regards to your game. You know the sound a slot machine makes when it has a big pay out? That's what the Valdosta coach would hear after looking at the match ups. A redshirt senior QB throwing to a redshirt senior WR and a redshirt junior WR that will be going against sophmore DBs. Those DBs will end up very good players. Currently though they are ranked 34th, 70th,101,150 and 202. You downplay those mismatches.

Yes your group of LBs are a studs. The problem is they are complete non factors vs WRs going deep. That is the biggest weakness of a 3-4. You under sell his offensive line. 2 seniors and 4 juniors ranked from #3 to #53. That is a good offensive line.

Quite frankly I would be upset if I was the Valdosta coach. I would have expected more success throwing the ball.

Quite frankly I would be upset if I was the Valdosta coach. I would have expected more success throwing the ball.

You know the sound a slot machine makes when it has a big pay out? That's what the Valdosta coach would hear after looking at the match ups. A redshirt senior QB throwing to a redshirt senior WR and a redshirt junior WR that will be going against sophmore DBs. Those DBs will end up very good players. Currently though they are ranked 34th, 70th,101,150 and 202. You downplay those mismatches.

+1

TBill7, You know the difference in the 2nd half, I switched from 3-4 with 2 LB's on the line to 3-4 with 1 LB on the line so essentially I was running a 4-3 out of 3-4 the entire 2nd half. In addition, I had a 4th QTR playbook that I put in if I was still down by 3 points to switch to 3-4 cover long and blitzing the LB3/LB4 (inside LBs) as I had seen someone else beat you applying this strategy. It seemed the blitzing was working, no doubt I could have put this strategy in sooner, but I knew I was rolling the dice because majority of the time blitzing is a sure way to lose.

Surprising enough, the following game you faced a team that had a weaker defense than I did, but you tried to run the ball, and failed to get targets to your top end WR David Ward, even your 2nd half targets were to your opposite receiver when you did try to go long. That's why this loss IMO was fascinating to me because I didn't think that the coach had a theory that in order to beat weak DB's when facing 3-4 and the best DL/LB front 7 in the entire division 2, I'm going to throw to WR1 primarily long and some deep, and it will negate his amazing defense. I am well aware that any opponent playing me would attack the weaker db's as they are the weakest part of my defense, but I didn't think I would be unable to get to the QB with such great DL, as I have in the past. This game was a surprise to me that it was even competitive and I credit you for an amazing upset, and upsets are ok, it is what makes the game fun. I just wish that the game was more like real life football, attack the other teams weaknesses and pick the right plays in the right situations and you will win, I just haven't seen this to be true. This game is strictly about is your players better than theirs, and ONLY when the talent is within a few points of each other does ANY thing else matter. Without the ability to practice these situations frequently it makes it very difficult and takes a very long time to establish strategies that work.

I have nailed down my opponents, to knowing EXACTLY what they are running in every single scenario and have had upwards of 85% guess rate accuracy. Another words , was in a run defense when they ran, and a pass defense when they passed and was right 85% of those times. And the impact that it had were very minimal. I also on the flip side have picked the correct offensive play to counter the defenses selection with 80+% and also suffered.

I'm not asking for a game that never allows upsets, I'm happy they exist, I just feel like if they revealed exactly how the calculations worked we would never be so dumb founded when a strategy we employed didn't work, we could chalk it up to hey they won a few dice rolls. Our game wasn't a matter of this, clearly passing long out of proset against 3-4 even when the DL won the battle of the lines, still allowed the QB to throw to a Long/Deep part of the field, which (should take longer to develop) and the QB should be on the run because the DL is after him, that play should only work a very small amount of the time, but it worked significantly higher than I've ever seen.

https://www.whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=6037123

Targets where the QB at least looked at the Long part of field.

	Total Plays	Comp %	YPP	Hurries
vs Valdosta State	42	45%	13.2	7
vs all other human opponents	55	29.1%	4.25	13

A game matchup between the current championship that happened earlier in the season, Mansfield has similar front 7 as I have.
https://www.whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=5989205

Total Plays	Comp %	YPP	Hurries
23	22%	2.17	9