Whenever Doesn't Mean Whenever Topic

Seble said in beta that whenever basically meant random. But regardless based upon what I'm seeing, when we start recruiting in Iba I'm going to basically treat whenever as late.
10/11/2016 8:29 AM
I went thru the top 100 in Allen and saw that there were 9 instances of signed recruits with VH vs, H.......5 times VH won the recruit, 4 times H won the recruit.
10/11/2016 8:53 AM
Posted by smackawits on 10/11/2016 8:53:00 AM (view original):
I went thru the top 100 in Allen and saw that there were 9 instances of signed recruits with VH vs, H.......5 times VH won the recruit, 4 times H won the recruit.
People think there is a HUGE difference between points on High and Very High. But that is not really true.

There is a leader who has Max effort. That is some point value, and he is always VH. If we assume that guy has 1000 points, for another team to be at very high, they need 40% effort (meaning the leader has 60% effort) .. to find that minimum number, you need to do (1000/.6)-1000 .. that is 667 (compared to 1000 for the leader). And that means High is 35% effort .. or (1000/.65)-1000. That is 538 effort points.

So, there is NOT a huge different between High and Very High mathematically, wrt probability.

I covered how I think the calc goes in more detail in this post
10/11/2016 9:18 AM (edited)
There is very little difference between high and very high and Seble on several occasions said it was as much a reflection of who put more effort in recently. This was a control put in place to spare all of you from "being Sniped". Everyone complained about poaching when they were being poached but when they try to do it, they complain the guy that was high won. I feel this element has added something to recruiting. If you are a good match for a recruit, it affects his decision and can make the difference against someone who is just pouring in money.
10/11/2016 9:26 AM
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/10/2016 10:58:00 PM (view original):
With 1000-some odd recruits per world per season, and 10 worlds, I am not the least impressed by your undocumented 100 whenevers. I said what I would look at to find enough data for intelligent analysis, and 12, or 100, isn't even close. Wake me when there is enough data for intelligent analysis.
So where is your data?
10/11/2016 10:25 AM
Posted by Benis on 10/11/2016 8:29:00 AM (view original):
Seble said in beta that whenever basically meant random. But regardless based upon what I'm seeing, when we start recruiting in Iba I'm going to basically treat whenever as late.
Careful with that approach, Benis. The Dev chat said they uncovered a bug that was causing the whenevers to sign late, and that they "fixed" it. It's possible that fixing the bug didn't affect CURRENT recruiting, but if you are about to start Iba, it may have been corrected for Iba's recruiting, which in theory would lead to more early signings from the whenevers. I guess we'll find out.
10/11/2016 10:30 AM
Posted by hughesjr on 10/11/2016 9:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by smackawits on 10/11/2016 8:53:00 AM (view original):
I went thru the top 100 in Allen and saw that there were 9 instances of signed recruits with VH vs, H.......5 times VH won the recruit, 4 times H won the recruit.
People think there is a HUGE difference between points on High and Very High. But that is not really true.

There is a leader who has Max effort. That is some point value, and he is always VH. If we assume that guy has 1000 points, for another team to be at very high, they need 40% effort (meaning the leader has 60% effort) .. to find that minimum number, you need to do (1000/.6)-1000 .. that is 667 (compared to 1000 for the leader). And that means High is 35% effort .. or (1000/.65)-1000. That is 538 effort points.

So, there is NOT a huge different between High and Very High mathematically, wrt probability.

I covered how I think the calc goes in more detail in this post
Did you even participate in BETA???

There is supposed to be a LARGE difference in signing %s between VH and H. In fact, the chance of a high should never be above 35%.
On average it should be between 25-30%. If this is not happening, then something did NOT come over correctly from the last seasons of BETA.
10/11/2016 10:33 AM
Posted by hawkfan1992 on 10/11/2016 10:30:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Benis on 10/11/2016 8:29:00 AM (view original):
Seble said in beta that whenever basically meant random. But regardless based upon what I'm seeing, when we start recruiting in Iba I'm going to basically treat whenever as late.
Careful with that approach, Benis. The Dev chat said they uncovered a bug that was causing the whenevers to sign late, and that they "fixed" it. It's possible that fixing the bug didn't affect CURRENT recruiting, but if you are about to start Iba, it may have been corrected for Iba's recruiting, which in theory would lead to more early signings from the whenevers. I guess we'll find out.
That's a good point. Fair point.

But the dev chat was on 9/27. Recruiting for Allen started on 10/4. So if they fixed the bug around the 27th, I'd think it would be included in the Allen recruiting and be the same for Iba. But maybe not. I'll send in a ticket about the bug and which worlds were affected or not.
10/11/2016 10:40 AM
Posted by hawkfan1992 on 10/11/2016 10:25:00 AM (view original):
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/10/2016 10:58:00 PM (view original):
With 1000-some odd recruits per world per season, and 10 worlds, I am not the least impressed by your undocumented 100 whenevers. I said what I would look at to find enough data for intelligent analysis, and 12, or 100, isn't even close. Wake me when there is enough data for intelligent analysis.
So where is your data?
Still running. Not every world has had a full season of HD3.0 recruiting. More important would be an explanation from WIS.

BTW, I caution newcomers to the game that there is a lot of misinformation in this thread. Two of the more glaring examples are:
"Seble said in beta that whenever basically meant random."
"Seble on several occasions said it was as much a reflection of who put more effort in recently."


Neither of those are accurate. In addition, comparing the signing times of a few "Whenevers" with the signing times of a few of the other categories of Preference does nothing to tell you how "Whenever" is working.
10/11/2016 11:46 AM
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 11:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by hawkfan1992 on 10/11/2016 10:25:00 AM (view original):
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/10/2016 10:58:00 PM (view original):
With 1000-some odd recruits per world per season, and 10 worlds, I am not the least impressed by your undocumented 100 whenevers. I said what I would look at to find enough data for intelligent analysis, and 12, or 100, isn't even close. Wake me when there is enough data for intelligent analysis.
So where is your data?
Still running. Not every world has had a full season of HD3.0 recruiting. More important would be an explanation from WIS.

BTW, I caution newcomers to the game that there is a lot of misinformation in this thread. Two of the more glaring examples are:
"Seble said in beta that whenever basically meant random."
"Seble on several occasions said it was as much a reflection of who put more effort in recently."


Neither of those are accurate. In addition, comparing the signing times of a few "Whenevers" with the signing times of a few of the other categories of Preference does nothing to tell you how "Whenever" is working.
Seble actually did say it was basically random and talked about renaming it.

But you have an impeccable memory and are very, very smart so you must be correct.
10/11/2016 11:57 AM
Posted by hawkfan1992 on 10/10/2016 6:23:00 PM (view original):
Rupp - Uncovered 100 Players with a preference to sign "whenever." 6 of those 100 signed, and only 1 of the 6 was a battle. 20 are undecided (no one is high or very high), so by definition would not be eligible to sign, and 74 are considering at least one team and have not signed. Of the 74 that have have a high or very high team on them and are not signed, only 24 are battles. So for players being recruited where only 1 team is high or very high, only 5 out of 55 signed.

Phelan - Uncovered 82 Players with a preference to sign Whenever. 3 of those 82 signed, and 2 of the 3 were battles. 24 of the 82 are undecided, and 55 of the unsigned "whenever" players are considering at least one team and have not signed. Of the 55 that have a high or very high team on them and are not signed, only 9 are battles. So, for players being recruited where only 1 team is high or very high (ie. no battle), only 1 out of 47 signed in the first recruiting period.

This does not take into account any recruits considering a team at High or Very High who did not actually offer a scholarship. But I figure that number is going to be pretty low, if any.

So the data is, if you are NOT in a battle for a "Whenever" player, the very limited data shows that the player will sign in the first period less than 6% of the time (6 out of 102). If there is a battle for the player, the player has signed in the first recruiting Period 8% of the time (3 out of 36).

Contrast this with this Dev Chat quote: "It's also important to note we discovered and fixed a bug yesterday involving recruits with the 'Whenever' signing preference that will result in them signing sooner. " This Dev Chat was on 9/27. I assumed that "fixed a bug" meant that the bug was .... well, fixed. Apparently it means that it WILL be fixed, at some point in the future. OR, maybe when they said "signing SOONER", they meant at the beginning of the 2nd signing period? I actually wish they would not put out disinformation. It is worse than having no information. I made strategic recruiting decisions based upon this statement from the Dev Chat. If I had been ignorant of this alleged "bug" and Wis "fixing" the bug, I would have recruited differently.
Wow - THAT is statistical analysis of a perceived issue. Fantastic stuff, hawkfan. There are quite a few people here that need to take notes on how this is done.
10/11/2016 12:14 PM
"Seble actually did say it was basically random and talked about renaming it."

Show me, and I'll admit I was wrong. Don't just pick one line out of context. He mentioned the possibility of renaming it, but never said it was simply random. "Random" is the favorite forum bogeyman lately, and seems to take on a life of its own in some minds.
10/11/2016 12:34 PM (edited)
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
"Seble actually did say it was basically random and talked about renaming it."

Show me, and I'll admit I was wrong. Don't just pick one line out of context. He mentioned the possibility of renaming it, but never said it was simply random. "Random" is the favorite forum bogeyman lately, and seems to take on a life of its own in some minds.
All right here we go. Here's what I could find after searching for a few minutes

"As of now, nothing that teams do will affect when the recruit signs. It's purely based on his tendency (with the exact cycle varying some based on random chance)."

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420609&page=3

1 of them is Late and the others are Whenever, which means there's a chance they'll sign in each cycle.

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420355

Question from Coach - 2) What does "Whenever" entail under signing preference:
Answer from Seble - "2) it means he could sign at any cycle?"

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420530

And finally, from the Change Log, the definition of what Whenever means. Drum roll......


"Whenever: Will now have about 50% chance of signing at some point in period 1 and 50% chance in period 2."

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420496&page=2


The change log post is the latest. Should be a 50/50 shot for 1st or 2nd period.

10/11/2016 1:22 PM
Posted by mullycj on 10/11/2016 10:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by hughesjr on 10/11/2016 9:18:00 AM (view original):
Posted by smackawits on 10/11/2016 8:53:00 AM (view original):
I went thru the top 100 in Allen and saw that there were 9 instances of signed recruits with VH vs, H.......5 times VH won the recruit, 4 times H won the recruit.
People think there is a HUGE difference between points on High and Very High. But that is not really true.

There is a leader who has Max effort. That is some point value, and he is always VH. If we assume that guy has 1000 points, for another team to be at very high, they need 40% effort (meaning the leader has 60% effort) .. to find that minimum number, you need to do (1000/.6)-1000 .. that is 667 (compared to 1000 for the leader). And that means High is 35% effort .. or (1000/.65)-1000. That is 538 effort points.

So, there is NOT a huge different between High and Very High mathematically, wrt probability.

I covered how I think the calc goes in more detail in this post
Did you even participate in BETA???

There is supposed to be a LARGE difference in signing %s between VH and H. In fact, the chance of a high should never be above 35%.
On average it should be between 25-30%. If this is not happening, then something did NOT come over correctly from the last seasons of BETA.
Yes I did participate in BETA .. and there is NOT a large difference. There is basically Around 5% of the points of the MAX Effort guy's total effort between a minimum 'High' and a minimum 'Very High'.

A High has to have > 35% of max Effort (35% would be 0 .. 35.1 has value) // while very high needs > 40% of the Max Effort's Points to qualify.

Yes .. I checked the calculations before they took down the test site.
10/11/2016 1:46 PM
hughes - we are probably talking about 2 different things.

I am referring to the % chance of a player signing at VH vs High. From the BETA, a high player is never above 35% (and is probably more at 30%).
Any higher and it becomes a battle of VH vs VH. Agree?
10/11/2016 4:12 PM
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