Hughes, the forum isn't down, just the test world. You can still pull stuff.

Here's an interesting thread about signing odds

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420873

Posted by Benis on 10/11/2016 1:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
"Seble actually did say it was basically random and talked about renaming it."

Show me, and I'll admit I was wrong. Don't just pick one line out of context. He mentioned the possibility of renaming it, but never said it was simply random. "Random" is the favorite forum bogeyman lately, and seems to take on a life of its own in some minds.

All right here we go. Here's what I could find after searching for a few minutes

"As of now, nothing that teams do will affect when the recruit signs. It's purely based on his tendency (with the exact cycle varying some based on random chance)."

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420609&page=3

1 of them is Late and the others are Whenever, which means there's a chance they'll sign in each cycle.

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420355

Question from Coach - 2) What does "Whenever" entail under signing preference:
Answer from Seble - "2) it means he could sign at any cycle?"

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420530

And finally, from the Change Log, the definition of what Whenever means. Drum roll......


"Whenever: Will now have about 50% chance of signing at some point in period 1 and 50% chance in period 2."

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420496&page=2


The change log post is the latest. Should be a 50/50 shot for 1st or 2nd period.

Thank you for one of your few answers that wasn't simply a troll. Let's see if it is said anywhere there that "whenever" means "basically random."
1.) "based on his tendency" (ie. early, late, whenever, EP1) made fuzzy so as not to be rigid and predictable (prone to sniping). That is still based on his tendency, so definitely not basically random.
2.) "there's a chance they'll sign in each cycle." Yes, and that chance is scheduled according to the formula Seble tweaked but never revealed ... again, not basically random.
3.) "could sign at any cycle" ... same as #2.
4.) "about 50% chance of signing at some point in period 1 and 50% chance in period 2" Here we get a glimpse of Seble's never-revealed formula controlling when they will sign. What is controlled by a formula is far, far from "basically random."
add # 5.) The very fact that Seble announced he was tweaking it. You can tweak a formula but random is just random.

Another variable that will be very difficult (perhaps almost impossible) to control for anyone trying to deconstruct Seble's formula is the constantly changing universe of data points. The number of "Whenever's" that are in the data universe (eligible for signing at each particular cycle of both periods) will grow dynamically and unpredictably as more teams reach signing threshold, and simultaneously shrink dynamically and unpredictably as some teams drop below signing threshold and as some of the recruits are removed from the pool altogether by signing an offer. Seble's formula could work perfectly and still not be subject to deconstruction because it is an ever changing universe and we won't have enough data to control for the changes. Thus, we would have to rely on WIS's own analysis and their judgement that it is working as intended or needs a tweak. Even Seble's successor will have to exercise judgement.

Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 5:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/11/2016 1:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
"Seble actually did say it was basically random and talked about renaming it."

Show me, and I'll admit I was wrong. Don't just pick one line out of context. He mentioned the possibility of renaming it, but never said it was simply random. "Random" is the favorite forum bogeyman lately, and seems to take on a life of its own in some minds.

All right here we go. Here's what I could find after searching for a few minutes

"As of now, nothing that teams do will affect when the recruit signs. It's purely based on his tendency (with the exact cycle varying some based on random chance)."

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420609&page=3

1 of them is Late and the others are Whenever, which means there's a chance they'll sign in each cycle.

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420355

Question from Coach - 2) What does "Whenever" entail under signing preference:
Answer from Seble - "2) it means he could sign at any cycle?"

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420530

And finally, from the Change Log, the definition of what Whenever means. Drum roll......


"Whenever: Will now have about 50% chance of signing at some point in period 1 and 50% chance in period 2."

http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420496&page=2


The change log post is the latest. Should be a 50/50 shot for 1st or 2nd period.

Thank you for one of your few answers that wasn't simply a troll. Let's see if it is said anywhere there that "whenever" means "basically random."
1.) "based on his tendency" (ie. early, late, whenever, EP1) made fuzzy so as not to be rigid and predictable (prone to sniping). That is still based on his tendency, so definitely not basically random.
2.) "there's a chance they'll sign in each cycle." Yes, and that chance is scheduled according to the formula Seble tweaked but never revealed ... again, not basically random.
3.) "could sign at any cycle" ... same as #2.
4.) "about 50% chance of signing at some point in period 1 and 50% chance in period 2" Here we get a glimpse of Seble's never-revealed formula controlling when they will sign. What is controlled by a formula is far, far from "basically random."
add # 5.) The very fact that Seble announced he was tweaking it. You can tweak a formula but random is just random.

Another variable that will be very difficult (perhaps almost impossible) to control for anyone trying to deconstruct Seble's formula is the constantly changing universe of data points. The number of "Whenever's" that are in the data universe (eligible for signing at each particular cycle of both periods) will grow dynamically and unpredictably as more teams reach signing threshold, and simultaneously shrink dynamically and unpredictably as some teams drop below signing threshold and as some of the recruits are removed from the pool altogether by signing an offer. Seble's formula could work perfectly and still not be subject to deconstruction because it is an ever changing universe and we won't have enough data to control for the changes. Thus, we would have to rely on WIS's own analysis and their judgement that it is working as intended or needs a tweak. Even Seble's successor will have to exercise judgement.

I haven't seen a single response from you that wasn't a troll.. but thanks anyway for the compliment.

And what?? What does that rambling even mean? You are definitely right earlier... WHOOOSH right over my head.

The formula for whenever preference is 50% in the 1st period. What else is there? If a recruit has an interest level of high or very high and has a scholarship offer, there is a 50% chance he will sign by end of 1st period. Come the end of 1st period, flip a coin. Heads he signs, tails he goes to 2nd session. 50/50. That's it.

Where are you getting this hugely complicated formula from? Sure, there is a formula for WHO they sign with that Seble chose not to share, but where is this for WHEN? Why are you just pulling this stuff out of your B hole?

And as for the other signing tendencies, all he said was that the chance they sign increases every cycle. So for an Early guy, he may have a 50% chance to sign at the 5am cycle and then 60% chance at the 11am cycle. etc etc. Same for a Late guy. 1st cycle in 2nd session maybe 20% then 2nd cycle is 30%, etc.

"And what?? What does that rambling even mean? You are definitely right earlier... WHOOOSH right over my head."

Totally correct. And you prove it with your very next sentence: "The formula for whenever preference is 50% in the 1st period. What else is there?" There is a formula for every single cycle of both periods because every one of them is a potential decision point. In fact, even a formula as simple as you suggest in your last paragraph is far from "basically random."

Posted by noleaniml on 10/11/2016 12:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hawkfan1992 on 10/10/2016 6:23:00 PM (view original):
Rupp - Uncovered 100 Players with a preference to sign "whenever." 6 of those 100 signed, and only 1 of the 6 was a battle. 20 are undecided (no one is high or very high), so by definition would not be eligible to sign, and 74 are considering at least one team and have not signed. Of the 74 that have have a high or very high team on them and are not signed, only 24 are battles. So for players being recruited where only 1 team is high or very high, only 5 out of 55 signed.

Phelan - Uncovered 82 Players with a preference to sign Whenever. 3 of those 82 signed, and 2 of the 3 were battles. 24 of the 82 are undecided, and 55 of the unsigned "whenever" players are considering at least one team and have not signed. Of the 55 that have a high or very high team on them and are not signed, only 9 are battles. So, for players being recruited where only 1 team is high or very high (ie. no battle), only 1 out of 47 signed in the first recruiting period.

This does not take into account any recruits considering a team at High or Very High who did not actually offer a scholarship. But I figure that number is going to be pretty low, if any.

So the data is, if you are NOT in a battle for a "Whenever" player, the very limited data shows that the player will sign in the first period less than 6% of the time (6 out of 102). If there is a battle for the player, the player has signed in the first recruiting Period 8% of the time (3 out of 36).

Contrast this with this Dev Chat quote: "It's also important to note we discovered and fixed a bug yesterday involving recruits with the 'Whenever' signing preference that will result in them signing sooner. " This Dev Chat was on 9/27. I assumed that "fixed a bug" meant that the bug was .... well, fixed. Apparently it means that it WILL be fixed, at some point in the future. OR, maybe when they said "signing SOONER", they meant at the beginning of the 2nd signing period? I actually wish they would not put out disinformation. It is worse than having no information. I made strategic recruiting decisions based upon this statement from the Dev Chat. If I had been ignorant of this alleged "bug" and Wis "fixing" the bug, I would have recruited differently.

Wow - THAT is statistical analysis of a perceived issue. Fantastic stuff, hawkfan. There are quite a few people here that need to take notes on how this is done.

Thanks Nole - I should have prefaced this to say that both worlds, Phelan and Rupp, were in between 1st and 2nd Periods of recruiting when I put that data in.

Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 5:50:00 PM (view original):
"And what?? What does that rambling even mean? You are definitely right earlier... WHOOOSH right over my head."

Totally correct. And you prove it with your very next sentence: "The formula for whenever preference is 50% in the 1st period. What else is there?" There is a formula for every single cycle of both periods because every one of them is a potential decision point. In fact, even a formula as simple as you suggest in your last paragraph is far from "basically random."

Mind sharing a link to where you learned about the formula that determines when a recruit signs?

Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 8:14:00 PM (view original):
If you think either Seble or his successor are going to reveal the exact formula, I think you are mistaken.

I didn't ask for the exact formula. Im asking for a link describing that such a formula exists. A complex formula that determines when a recruit will sign.

Posted by CoachSpud on 10/12/2016 12:35:00 AM (view original):
I don't think it is complex. I never said it is complex, just that it obviously isn't "basically random," as you claimed. But if you don't want to believe in it, well, then I guess it was randomness that Seble tweaked with his supernatural powers. You go ahead and claim whatever you need to claim to try to save face, it doesn't matter to me.

I tried to get you to actually support your claims but you couldn't..

So I guess I'll just go back to making sure you understand what I said. I never said that all signings were basically random. I said WHENEVER was basically random. And then I found several posts by seble which supported this. Then I found the definition in the change log where he said Whenever means a recruit will have a 50% chance of signing in 1st and 50% chance of signing in 2nd. So again, if I'm recruiting a player who is Whenever, I SHOULD (if this is working correctly, which it most certainly is not) have a 50/50 of signing him in the 1st period. 50/50 is random. I know there has been lots of talk on the forums lately about what random really means, but I'm pretty sure everyone can agree if you have a 50/50 shot of something happening, that it is a totally random outcome.

But then you post some nonsensical explanation of how signings work that you just totally make up. Maybe you did it so you could sound intelligent and make it more difficult for people to see that you have no clue what's going on? Not sure exactly. But regardless, keep on churning bud. You're doing great.

And I can't wait for you to pull one sentence from this entire post and respond to it, completely ignoring everything else. That's your favorite move. Maybe it's because you only bother to read a few words before spouting out at the mouth (keyboard).

Posted by Benis on 10/12/2016 6:30:00 AM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 10/12/2016 12:35:00 AM (view original):
I don't think it is complex. I never said it is complex, just that it obviously isn't "basically random," as you claimed. But if you don't want to believe in it, well, then I guess it was randomness that Seble tweaked with his supernatural powers. You go ahead and claim whatever you need to claim to try to save face, it doesn't matter to me.

I tried to get you to actually support your claims but you couldn't..

So I guess I'll just go back to making sure you understand what I said. I never said that all signings were basically random. I said WHENEVER was basically random. And then I found several posts by seble which supported this. Then I found the definition in the change log where he said Whenever means a recruit will have a 50% chance of signing in 1st and 50% chance of signing in 2nd. So again, if I'm recruiting a player who is Whenever, I SHOULD (if this is working correctly, which it most certainly is not) have a 50/50 of signing him in the 1st period. 50/50 is random. I know there has been lots of talk on the forums lately about what random really means, but I'm pretty sure everyone can agree if you have a 50/50 shot of something happening, that it is a totally random outcome.

But then you post some nonsensical explanation of how signings work that you just totally make up. Maybe you did it so you could sound intelligent and make it more difficult for people to see that you have no clue what's going on? Not sure exactly. But regardless, keep on churning bud. You're doing great.

And I can't wait for you to pull one sentence from this entire post and respond to it, completely ignoring everything else. That's your favorite move. Maybe it's because you only bother to read a few words before spouting out at the mouth (keyboard).

here you go Benis:

,

Or, you know, 50%. It can be a Wilson loop to some people, to others it's a coin flip. I'll take the simpler example.