Posted by Benis on 10/11/2016 1:22:00 PM (view original):
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/11/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
"Seble actually did say it was basically random and talked about renaming it."
Show me, and I'll admit I was wrong. Don't just pick one line out of context. He mentioned the possibility of renaming it, but never said it was simply random. "Random" is the favorite forum bogeyman lately, and seems to take on a life of its own in some minds.
All right here we go. Here's what I could find after searching for a few minutes
"As of now, nothing that teams do will affect when the recruit signs. It's purely based on his tendency (with the exact cycle varying some based on random chance)."
http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420609&page=3
1 of them is Late and the others are Whenever, which means there's a chance they'll sign in each cycle.
http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420355
Question from Coach - 2) What does "Whenever" entail under signing preference:
Answer from Seble - "2) it means he could sign at any cycle?"
http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420530
And finally, from the Change Log, the definition of what Whenever means. Drum roll......
"Whenever: Will now have about 50% chance of signing at some point in period 1 and 50% chance in period 2."
http://test.whatifsports.net/whatifsports/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=420496&page=2
The change log post is the latest. Should be a 50/50 shot for 1st or 2nd period.
Thank you for one of your few answers that wasn't simply a troll. Let's see if it is said anywhere there that "whenever" means "basically random."
1.)
"based on his tendency" (ie. early, late, whenever, EP1) made fuzzy so as not to be rigid and predictable (prone to sniping). That is still
based on his tendency, so definitely not basically random.
2.)
"there's a chance they'll sign in each cycle." Yes, and that chance is scheduled according to the formula Seble tweaked but never revealed ... again, not basically random.
3.)
"could sign at any cycle" ... same as #2.
4.)
"about 50% chance of signing at some point in period 1 and 50% chance in period 2" Here we get a glimpse of Seble's never-revealed formula controlling when they will sign. What is controlled by a formula is far, far from "basically random."
add # 5.) The very fact that Seble announced he was tweaking it. You can tweak a formula but random is just random.
Another variable that will be very difficult (perhaps almost impossible) to control for anyone trying to deconstruct Seble's formula is the constantly changing universe of data points. The number of "Whenever's" that are in the data universe (eligible for signing at each particular cycle of both periods) will
grow dynamically and unpredictably as more teams reach signing threshold, and simultaneously
shrink dynamically and unpredictably
as some teams drop below signing threshold
and as some of the recruits are removed from the pool altogether by signing an offer. Seble's formula could work perfectly and still not be subject to deconstruction because it is an ever changing universe and we won't have enough data to control for the changes. Thus, we would have to rely on WIS's own analysis and their judgement that it is working as intended or needs a tweak. Even Seble's successor will have to exercise judgement.
10/11/2016 5:36 PM (edited)