Kevb,
I agree that first cycle is important but I don't agree that you will be 'critically wounded' if you miss first cycle. Some of it situational. If I have 1 spot then I have 40 APs. Yes, getting those APs to the recruit so I can unlock actions is really important but, what if I'm splitting that on to 2 guys. That means I lost out on 20 AP per recruit. Let's say you end up in a battle and the final tally is 450 APs, 20 HVs, 1CV vs 500APs 20HVs, 1CV. Would that missing 20 APs lower your chances? Very, very slightly. But it's not destroying your chances. Even if it was all 40 APs you invested on that guy 100% of the time, still not a huge difference.
An extreme example of supporting your statement would be if I have 140 APs and my plan is to go all in on a 5 star guy so I put all of my APs on him right away. Missing the first cycle would make this strategy much, much less effective.
Also, I don't know what other people have experienced but I've moved my APs around quite a bit during recruiting so far. I've spent quite a few on guys that I later backed off of because stronger teams with more advantages moved in. If you were to miss the first cycle, you would at least see what recruits are being pursued by teams with a bigger advantage (maybe you're at D3 going for a D2 and a A+ D2 is all over a guy you were interested in).
Again, I agree, you don't want to miss the first cycle. But it's not like you're totally screwed and behind the 8 ball. You can make up ground very easily. Just my 2 cents on what I've experienced.