Battle Analysis - FYI Topic

For those who care.
Wisconsin (A+)
APs : 335
HVs : 20 (max)
CV : 1
Other : Start ; 15 mins

Minnesota (B)
APs : 550
HVs : 20 (max)
CV : 1
Other : Start ; 20 mins

Preferences (Wisconsin / Minnesota)
Near Home : Good / Very Good
Man to man : Very Good / Very Good
Conference : Very Good / Very Good
Long term Coach : Very Good / Good

Notes
* At time of signings Wisc was VH and Minn was H. Recruit signed with Minnesota.
* Recruit swung to VH Minnesota after promise of start/mins. Swung back to Wisc after their own start/mins promise.
* Preferences seem to be a wash.
* Was glad to lose the coin flip as I had no place to start him. But wanted to see what the impact would be to the battle.

IMO
Other than feeling the effect of a start/mins was too powerful here, results make sense.
10/14/2016 7:52 PM
I really don't have a problem with these kind of results. Unless they happen all the time.

We know that the High team has a decent chance to win. Certainly WIS needs to track how many high teams win vs VH teams and make sure the probabilities are where they should be.

If H teams win, on average more than 30% against VH teams then that is an issue (willing to discuss the percent). Obviously this would be across all worlds and not just a small sample size of only one recruiting season.

10/14/2016 8:05 PM
Forget the labels ("At time of signings Wisc was VH and Minn was H.") for the moment. One D1 team put in slightly more than 64% more AP's and five more (33%) promised minutes than the other. Preferences appear to be a wash. No matter the prestige difference, can anyone say this is a faulty result? I think not.
10/14/2016 9:31 PM
For all its worth, Minnesota did give 115 more additional attention points to the recruit. Also, I suspect that the proximity preference may be weighted a little heavier that some of the other preferences. I have had good success exploiting it.
10/14/2016 9:40 PM
So it looks like preferences are about dead even.

In 2.0, A+ to B would be an advantage of roughly 50%.

So, just multiplying that out, Wisconsin would have

30 HVs vs 20
1.5 CVs vs 1
502 APs vs 550
(I don't know how much of a difference 20 minutes vs 15 makes, so call it a wash)

I don't know how to translate HVs to CVs to APs, so let's throw out a couple guesses and see how they work.

100 APs = 1 HV
1 CV = 2.5 HVs

Doing that and then converting everything to HVs, we get:

Wisconsin: 38 HVs
Minnesota: 28 HVs

Or, in percentages, a 58/42 battle, which should be very high vs high. So this end result is what we should expect.

However, I do think mully has a good question regarding promises potentially being too powerful, especially given the lack of playing time preference here. Before Wisconsin's offer, were both teams VH, or was it just Minnesota? If it's just Minnesota, then promises seem to be WAAAAAAAY too powerful--powerful enough to make up for 10+ HVs. If both were VH, that makes more sense.
10/14/2016 11:02 PM
We don't know when the promises and other efforts were made, and that can make a big difference.
10/14/2016 11:36 PM
No Spud I think you are wrong. The timing ONLY makes a difference when it affects the "playing time" preference. This recruit had no preference on playing time. Thus, no "multiplier" in effect.
10/14/2016 11:55 PM
"However, I do think mully has a good question regarding promises potentially being too powerful, especially given the lack of playing time preference here. Before Wisconsin's offer, were both teams VH, or was it just Minnesota? If it's just Minnesota, then promises seem to be WAAAAAAAY too powerful--powerful enough to make up for 10+ HVs. If both were VH, that makes more sense. "

Yes, that's what I said in the "playing time too powerful thread". Before my offer, Minnesota was VH and I was High. After the promise from my side, it completely flipped around to Wisc VH and Minn High (where it remained).
If this were the one of the 1st recruiting actions taken I could buy that. But the start offer was the last action I made on the recruit.

I would love to see as many of these battles posted as the users can. It makes for good discussion and feedback to CS.
10/14/2016 11:59 PM
Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 11:55:00 PM (view original):
No Spud I think you are wrong. The timing ONLY makes a difference when it affects the "playing time" preference. This recruit had no preference on playing time. Thus, no "multiplier" in effect.
That's what I always thought, too. It turned out that I was wrong, starts and possibly minutes have an effect even if there is no preference for playing time. It is in the forums somewhere.
10/15/2016 12:21 AM
Would be great if you could find that post
10/15/2016 1:44 AM
Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 7:52:00 PM (view original):
For those who care.
Wisconsin (A+)
APs : 335
HVs : 20 (max)
CV : 1
Other : Start ; 15 mins

Minnesota (B)
APs : 550
HVs : 20 (max)
CV : 1
Other : Start ; 20 mins

Preferences (Wisconsin / Minnesota)
Near Home : Good / Very Good
Man to man : Very Good / Very Good
Conference : Very Good / Very Good
Long term Coach : Very Good / Good

Notes
* At time of signings Wisc was VH and Minn was H. Recruit signed with Minnesota.
* Recruit swung to VH Minnesota after promise of start/mins. Swung back to Wisc after their own start/mins promise.
* Preferences seem to be a wash.
* Was glad to lose the coin flip as I had no place to start him. But wanted to see what the impact would be to the battle.

IMO
Other than feeling the effect of a start/mins was too powerful here, results make sense.
How many open slots did both have? Could that be a factor by chance?
10/15/2016 5:54 AM (edited)
Regardless of any other opinions, thanks for the info. In the end, most of us are just trying to adapt. Thanks.
10/15/2016 6:11 AM
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/15/2016 12:21:00 AM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 11:55:00 PM (view original):
No Spud I think you are wrong. The timing ONLY makes a difference when it affects the "playing time" preference. This recruit had no preference on playing time. Thus, no "multiplier" in effect.
That's what I always thought, too. It turned out that I was wrong, starts and possibly minutes have an effect even if there is no preference for playing time. It is in the forums somewhere.
Sure, everyone responds to a start and to playing time. Although the effort is worth more to a player who wants to play.
10/15/2016 6:46 AM
Posted by hughesjr on 10/15/2016 6:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by CoachSpud on 10/15/2016 12:21:00 AM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 11:55:00 PM (view original):
No Spud I think you are wrong. The timing ONLY makes a difference when it affects the "playing time" preference. This recruit had no preference on playing time. Thus, no "multiplier" in effect.
That's what I always thought, too. It turned out that I was wrong, starts and possibly minutes have an effect even if there is no preference for playing time. It is in the forums somewhere.
Sure, everyone responds to a start and to playing time. Although the effort is worth more to a player who wants to play.
It will have an impact but the timing of it doesn't matter when he doesn't have a preference. I think you misunderstood.
10/15/2016 7:41 AM
Posted by wvufan76 on 10/15/2016 5:54:00 AM (view original):
Posted by mullycj on 10/14/2016 7:52:00 PM (view original):
For those who care.
Wisconsin (A+)
APs : 335
HVs : 20 (max)
CV : 1
Other : Start ; 15 mins

Minnesota (B)
APs : 550
HVs : 20 (max)
CV : 1
Other : Start ; 20 mins

Preferences (Wisconsin / Minnesota)
Near Home : Good / Very Good
Man to man : Very Good / Very Good
Conference : Very Good / Very Good
Long term Coach : Very Good / Good

Notes
* At time of signings Wisc was VH and Minn was H. Recruit signed with Minnesota.
* Recruit swung to VH Minnesota after promise of start/mins. Swung back to Wisc after their own start/mins promise.
* Preferences seem to be a wash.
* Was glad to lose the coin flip as I had no place to start him. But wanted to see what the impact would be to the battle.

IMO
Other than feeling the effect of a start/mins was too powerful here, results make sense.
How many open slots did both have? Could that be a factor by chance?
In a word........NO
10/15/2016 9:17 AM
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