Chances of Victory: Very High v. High Topic

I've seen some numbers thrown around in other threads, but I thought a solo topic on this might clear up some confusion (of mine, anyway):

Fill in the blanks:

A. In a two-team battle, one team at Very High, one team at High, the High team has, at most, a _____% chance of winning the recruit.

B. In a two-team battle, both teams at Very High, the team that is behind still has, at worst, a _____% chance of winning the recruit (by virtue of being listed as Very High).

I assume the answer in A and B is identical, but I don't have a feel of what that number is.
10/21/2016 12:52 PM
Looked in the Beta forums and found a couple battle notes that I will share (the 1st may answer the question or add to confusion):

Quote post by seble on 8/6/2016 1:21:00 PM:
Final odds were: Duke: 67% Oregon: 33%

Quote post by seble on 8/6/2016 2:12:00 PM:
Duke had good preference matches as well, but Oregon's matches were better. I think in this case all of that washed out due to a cap I instituted on credit adjustment. Due to extremely high prestige and good preference matches, both teams hit that cap. I think I can remove that cap now that I've addressed the preference boost snowball effect from earlier. This is definitely a unique case though. Removing the cap would result in odds of: Duke: 55% Oregon: 45%

[Edit: Both A+ Duke 230 AP; CV; 11 HV; 15 min.; start + schollie & Oregon 295 AP; CV; 6 HV; 15 min; start + schollie.]
10/21/2016 1:34 PM
Another: Quote post by seble on 8/10/2016 4:12:00 PM:
Odds:
UTEP: 41%
Austin Peay: 22%
Wash. St.: 19%
Iowa St.: 18%

[Austin Peay (C+) - 980 AP; CV; 20 HV; 25 min.; Start + Schollie
Iowa St. (B) - 860 AP; CV; 20 HV; 15 min.; Start + schollie
UTEP (B-) - 1125 AP; CV; 20 HV; 25 min; Start + schollie
Wa.St. (A) - 760 AP; CV; 8 HV; 25 min; Start + Schollie]


Quote post by seble on 8/10/2016 5:31:00 PM:
Saying it's a "leading team boost" is misleading. It's essentially "stretching" out the numbers for all teams involved. For example, say Team A has 10 credit and Team B has 8 credit. Straight signing odds (based on percentage of total credit) would be 56/44. However, if we "stretch" those values we get maybe 30 for Team A and 22 for Team B. Using those numbers, the odds become 58/42. Hopefully that makes sense.
10/21/2016 1:40 PM
That's helpful, but not really what I am asking -- the battles don't say who's high, very high, etc?

What I want to know is if I'm "high" going against "very high," I have at most a ____% chance of winning?

And if I'm "very high" going against "very high," I have at worst a ____% chance of winning?
10/21/2016 2:14 PM
Posted by johnsensing on 10/21/2016 12:52:00 PM (view original):
I've seen some numbers thrown around in other threads, but I thought a solo topic on this might clear up some confusion (of mine, anyway):

Fill in the blanks:

A. In a two-team battle, one team at Very High, one team at High, the High team has, at most, a _____% chance of winning the recruit.

B. In a two-team battle, both teams at Very High, the team that is behind still has, at worst, a _____% chance of winning the recruit (by virtue of being listed as Very High).

I assume the answer in A and B is identical, but I don't have a feel of what that number is.
1)~35%
2)~37%

And yes they should be about the same.
10/21/2016 2:15 PM
Posted by mullycj on 10/21/2016 2:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by johnsensing on 10/21/2016 12:52:00 PM (view original):
I've seen some numbers thrown around in other threads, but I thought a solo topic on this might clear up some confusion (of mine, anyway):

Fill in the blanks:

A. In a two-team battle, one team at Very High, one team at High, the High team has, at most, a _____% chance of winning the recruit.

B. In a two-team battle, both teams at Very High, the team that is behind still has, at worst, a _____% chance of winning the recruit (by virtue of being listed as Very High).

I assume the answer in A and B is identical, but I don't have a feel of what that number is.
1)~35%
2)~37%

And yes they should be about the same.
Agreed. They should be almost identical. A team just on either side of the H / VH cutoff point should be very close in effort .. within a couple points.

I also agree with the numbers.
10/21/2016 8:34 PM
Chances of Victory: Very High v. High Topic

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2024 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.