Support what? Very high and high are odds of where he will pick. Very high is 40 percent chance minimum. High is 35 to 40 percent. That is how to is designed. It's math. Nothing more. When you have more than 2 teams, it impacts the percentages. But those categories are chances (or odds) that he will sign somewhere. Nothing more.

Put that in whatever explanation you want to have to mean . . A given probability that he will pick some place.

I kind of see both sides of this. Seems like he would go with the team he was most interested in, and that would be one of the two he had a very high interest in. But, he also did have a high interest in another school. In the end, for whatever reason, he chose a school he had a high interest in. And choosing a school you have a high interest in makes sense.

I lost a recruit to a high interest SIM team when I was very high. I wasn't very happy about it. But I understand that is how this works. Every team, high or very high, has some probability to sign the guy. That means he can sign with either one. I lost the recruit. . So I had to find another one. In fact, in that case I took a walk on.

Posted by hughesjr on 10/23/2016 11:58:00 PM (view original):
Support what? Very high and high are odds of where he will pick. Very high is 40 percent chance minimum. High is 35 to 40 percent. That is how to is designed. It's math. Nothing more. When you have more than 2 teams, it impacts the percentages. But those categories are chances (or odds) that he will sign somewhere. Nothing more.

Put that in whatever explanation you want to have to mean . . A given probability that he will pick some place.

For your claim. For what you are saying. Where does anyone talk about these percentages and odds you are talking about? Where did you find that info?

Posted by caesari on 10/24/2016 12:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 10/23/2016 11:58:00 PM (view original):
Support what? Very high and high are odds of where he will pick. Very high is 40 percent chance minimum. High is 35 to 40 percent. That is how to is designed. It's math. Nothing more. When you have more than 2 teams, it impacts the percentages. But those categories are chances (or odds) that he will sign somewhere. Nothing more.

Put that in whatever explanation you want to have to mean . . A given probability that he will pick some place.

For your claim. For what you are saying. Where does anyone talk about these percentages and odds you are talking about? Where did you find that info?

The whole several months of beta?

I'm pretty sure this is about Jimmy Baker. I had shown him a fair amount of attention, had offered a scholarship, but didn't have the resources to do home visits until I lost an early entry. So I was moderate, with a scholarship offered prior to the interim period, then moved to very high earlier today. I had mentioned in another thread that it may feel like poaching to you, if I was able to pull it off. But I was very clearly coming after him.

This ties back in to the early entry debate. As I've been saying for a long time, it is very possible to deal with a reasonable number of early entries in 3.0 (i.e., 1 or 2 early entries, when you have other scholarship resources to expend).

As to whether there should be a delineation between high and very high in how we were listed, I'm agnostic. We were both within the signing parameters. I'd guess I was on the high end of high, but obviously I have no way to know that. Anyway, you can make a case for just having one name for the teams that are within signing parameters, so you don't know when you've been beaten from behind. But then you don't have that info when you're playing the game either, and then you're dealing with less info and more ambiguity. Basically, you either adapt your mindset to play the game that exists now - where you don't have to be "ahead" to win a recruit - or you're going to be banging your head against a wall for as long as you stick around.

Posted by hughesjr on 10/24/2016 12:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by caesari on 10/24/2016 12:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 10/23/2016 11:58:00 PM (view original):
Support what? Very high and high are odds of where he will pick. Very high is 40 percent chance minimum. High is 35 to 40 percent. That is how to is designed. It's math. Nothing more. When you have more than 2 teams, it impacts the percentages. But those categories are chances (or odds) that he will sign somewhere. Nothing more.

Put that in whatever explanation you want to have to mean . . A given probability that he will pick some place.

For your claim. For what you are saying. Where does anyone talk about these percentages and odds you are talking about? Where did you find that info?

The whole several months of beta?

Jesus Christ man, it's like pulling teeth talking to you.

I didn't play the beta, so... Is that your own personal observation? Is that something the developers said in a dev chat? Is it something the community came to realize as a whole?

Posted by caesari on 10/24/2016 12:18:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 10/24/2016 12:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by caesari on 10/24/2016 12:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 10/23/2016 11:58:00 PM (view original):
Support what? Very high and high are odds of where he will pick. Very high is 40 percent chance minimum. High is 35 to 40 percent. That is how to is designed. It's math. Nothing more. When you have more than 2 teams, it impacts the percentages. But those categories are chances (or odds) that he will sign somewhere. Nothing more.

Put that in whatever explanation you want to have to mean . . A given probability that he will pick some place.

For your claim. For what you are saying. Where does anyone talk about these percentages and odds you are talking about? Where did you find that info?

The whole several months of beta?

Jesus Christ man, it's like pulling teeth talking to you.

I didn't play the beta, so... Is that your own personal observation? Is that something the developers said in a dev chat? Is it something the community came to realize as a whole?

There are other very long and tedious threads about this here in the regular forums. My estimation is that in a 2-team battle between a team listed as "very high" and a team listed as "high", the "high" team can have somewhere between ~15% and ~40% chance to win the recruit, depending on how close the "high" team got to "very high" (i.e., not all "high" teams have the same signing odds). Some disagree a little on where the signing odds actually are. Yes, this info is based on slightly more ambiguous battle analyses Seble did during beta.

Posted by caesari on 10/24/2016 12:18:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 10/24/2016 12:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by caesari on 10/24/2016 12:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 10/23/2016 11:58:00 PM (view original):
Support what? Very high and high are odds of where he will pick. Very high is 40 percent chance minimum. High is 35 to 40 percent. That is how to is designed. It's math. Nothing more. When you have more than 2 teams, it impacts the percentages. But those categories are chances (or odds) that he will sign somewhere. Nothing more.

Put that in whatever explanation you want to have to mean . . A given probability that he will pick some place.

For your claim. For what you are saying. Where does anyone talk about these percentages and odds you are talking about? Where did you find that info?

The whole several months of beta?

Jesus Christ man, it's like pulling teeth talking to you.

I didn't play the beta, so... Is that your own personal observation? Is that something the developers said in a dev chat? Is it something the community came to realize as a whole?

Link

Link2

Link3

Link4

Link5

Here is my explanation and a discussion with Mully of how this is calculated.

So the jist of what the categories mean is this:

All effort (AP, CV , HV , Scholarship ) is adjusted for prestige and for preferences. It is then added together for each team.

There is a leader. That leader has what is know as the max effort value . That value sets the actual lower limit for very high and high. As the discussion link shows, 67% of the max effort will give you 40% probability to sign the recruit . This is the minimal value to be considered very high. If you do enough adjusted effort points to get to 67% (up to the same 100% value) of the max effort team's adjusted points, you will be in the Very High category.

Also, 53.8% of the max.effort value would give you a 35‰ chance to sign the recruit. That is the minimal value needed to get into high. If you put forth enough adjusted effort points to get between 53.8% and 66.999% of the max effort team's adjusted points, then you will be in the High category.

If there are more than 2 teams, the probability changes. I did a sample Calc here. That includes a 10% or a 5% bonus for the leader for a 5 team battle with 2 very high and 3 high teams.

================

To reiterate , seble defined very high as at least a 40% probably to sign the recruit based on the leader's effort and high as at least a 35‰ probability compared to the leader's effort. The exact probability for each team is then calculated based on the actual effort of each team that fits into the high and very high category .

Consider it to be like this list for Wendell Carter, he may sign with anyone listed there as high . . He has a high level of interest in all of those teams. At some point he will make a decision . It may or may not be for the team that recruited him the hardest or showed the most interest in him.

Posted by pkoopman on 10/24/2016 12:18:00 AM (view original):
I'm pretty sure this is about Jimmy Baker. I had shown him a fair amount of attention, had offered a scholarship, but didn't have the resources to do home visits until I lost an early entry. So I was moderate, with a scholarship offered prior to the interim period, then moved to very high earlier today. I had mentioned in another thread that it may feel like poaching to you, if I was able to pull it off. But I was very clearly coming after him.

This ties back in to the early entry debate. As I've been saying for a long time, it is very possible to deal with a reasonable number of early entries in 3.0 (i.e., 1 or 2 early entries, when you have other scholarship resources to expend).

As to whether there should be a delineation between high and very high in how we were listed, I'm agnostic. We were both within the signing parameters. I'd guess I was on the high end of high, but obviously I have no way to know that. Anyway, you can make a case for just having one name for the teams that are within signing parameters, so you don't know when you've been beaten from behind. But then you don't have that info when you're playing the game either, and then you're dealing with less info and more ambiguity. Basically, you either adapt your mindset to play the game that exists now - where you don't have to be "ahead" to win a recruit - or you're going to be banging your head against a wall for as long as you stick around.

And this is exactly what I said early entry teams could do. They can get some recruiting actions open on some decent players who are Late signers before early entries declare. You don't necessarily need to be higher than moderate. If you get an early entry (or more than one), then you get enough recruiting cash and attention points to start offering scholarships and do home / campus visits. Once you get to High in level of interest, you then have a chance to sign the guy. You can choose to try to get to Very High, or chose to try and get a couple players to high.

If you are at high or above, you have some probability to get that recruit.

Maybe decrease high odds by 10 % making it 20 to 25. It looks to me high wins often. But you can't get rid of it or battles will disappear. I lost to a H SIM and it hurts. As PK said, make ees declare in the first cycle, so all out crazy Eesless owners don't destroy someonels recruiting effort.

Posted by zorzii on 10/24/2016 7:41:00 AM (view original):
Maybe decrease high odds by 10 % making it 20 to 25. It looks to me high wins often. But you can't get rid of it or battles will disappear. I lost to a H SIM and it hurts. As PK said, make ees declare in the first cycle, so all out crazy Eesless owners don't destroy someonels recruiting effort.

They actually did add in an increase of 5% then upped it to 10% increase in the probability (I think they then dropped it back to 5%) for the max point leader to sign a recruit. Remember that a 5% increase in probability could somewhere between a 6% and 18% increase in actual effort points, depending on the number of teams involved in the battle.

And let's not forget, a High guy has put in significant effort .. only slightly lower than a Very High guy. As I said, seble decided that they had to put in enough effort compared to the max points leader to have a 35% chance (or higher) to get the recruit. That probability is already being dropped by either 5% or 10% after all the high and very high teams are selected.

Remember that the absolute maximum chance that a High team has is around 35 percent probability (after a 5% bonus for very high team). And that is only if he is in a battle with one other team and he is at the max effort before becoming very high himself. Add in more than 2 teams (in either high or very high) and his probability (the first high guy) becomes even lower than that.

We need to think of a having a high probability as a high probability.

Posted by pkoopman on 10/24/2016 12:18:00 AM (view original):
I'm pretty sure this is about Jimmy Baker. I had shown him a fair amount of attention, had offered a scholarship, but didn't have the resources to do home visits until I lost an early entry. So I was moderate, with a scholarship offered prior to the interim period, then moved to very high earlier today. I had mentioned in another thread that it may feel like poaching to you, if I was able to pull it off. But I was very clearly coming after him.

This ties back in to the early entry debate. As I've been saying for a long time, it is very possible to deal with a reasonable number of early entries in 3.0 (i.e., 1 or 2 early entries, when you have other scholarship resources to expend).

As to whether there should be a delineation between high and very high in how we were listed, I'm agnostic. We were both within the signing parameters. I'd guess I was on the high end of high, but obviously I have no way to know that. Anyway, you can make a case for just having one name for the teams that are within signing parameters, so you don't know when you've been beaten from behind. But then you don't have that info when you're playing the game either, and then you're dealing with less info and more ambiguity. Basically, you either adapt your mindset to play the game that exists now - where you don't have to be "ahead" to win a recruit - or you're going to be banging your head against a wall for as long as you stick around.

I don't care about poaching. I've poached people before, it's a realistic part of the game.

"Basically, you either adapt your mindset to play the game that exists now - where you don't have to be "ahead" to win a recruit - or you're going to be banging your head against a wall for as long as you stick around."

This quote is why I'll be leaving. Don't worry, I'm not delusional enough to think any of you will care. The game just isn't realistic. There is no reason in real life that a recruit would pick a school that they had less interest in. If you guys can enjoy this crap, then have fun.