Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
Seems to me that a statnerd would have mentioned BABIP. His walk rate and K rate were down. But his BABIP was down 36 pts from career average. So he put more balls in play and got less hits. I don't it's common for that to happen to a player and stay that way for the next 7 years. In Wrigley. So, if you saw it coming, you're a goddam genius. Any MLB team would be happy to pay you millions to get them that infor before doling out a big contract.

I think I heard that his swing is completely ****** and he isnt hitting the ball hard. Hitter's BABIPs are a lot more skill related than pitchers, so a low BABIP isn't a guarantee of bad luck.

As a Giants fan, I feel oddly interested in this tardfight. Way back in 2006-7, the Giants signed Barry Zito to a widely ridiculed $126M contract. In 2010, when they went to the World Series, he didn't make the roster (nor did he deserve to)... He suited up and cheered for the team in dugout when they won. In 2012, after another crappy season (actually worse than his 2010 season), he made the WS roster as the last starter, predictably sucked in his first game against CIN, then won the biggest game of his life against STL shutting them out in a possible elimination game, before outdueling Verlander in WS Game One to win the second biggest game of his life.

Point being... EVERY SINGLE GIANTS FAN IS GLAD WE SIGNED HIM and paid him $126M to mostly suck for seven years. The WS title in 2010 erased the pain of the deal, and those two wins in 2012 redeemed him as a pitcher. If the Cubs win, they'll be GLAD they signed Heyward. If Heyward makes ONE game-saving defensive play during any WS game over the term of his contract, he will be remembered as a hero, and not a bum who batted .100 in September (or whatever).

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 4:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
Seems to me that a statnerd would have mentioned BABIP. His walk rate and K rate were down. But his BABIP was down 36 pts from career average. So he put more balls in play and got less hits. I don't it's common for that to happen to a player and stay that way for the next 7 years. In Wrigley. So, if you saw it coming, you're a goddam genius. Any MLB team would be happy to pay you millions to get them that infor before doling out a big contract.

I think I heard that his swing is completely ****** and he isnt hitting the ball hard. Hitter's BABIPs are a lot more skill related than pitchers, so a low BABIP isn't a guarantee of bad luck.

Hard-hit rate was identical to 2014.

Posted by dahsdebater on 10/27/2016 4:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 4:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
Seems to me that a statnerd would have mentioned BABIP. His walk rate and K rate were down. But his BABIP was down 36 pts from career average. So he put more balls in play and got less hits. I don't it's common for that to happen to a player and stay that way for the next 7 years. In Wrigley. So, if you saw it coming, you're a goddam genius. Any MLB team would be happy to pay you millions to get them that infor before doling out a big contract.

I think I heard that his swing is completely ****** and he isnt hitting the ball hard. Hitter's BABIPs are a lot more skill related than pitchers, so a low BABIP isn't a guarantee of bad luck.

Hard-hit rate was identical to 2014.

Let's assume both are true. BABIP in 2014 was .308(.006 above career). His swing might be completely ******(not sure how d-rock saw that coming but he did). So every ball not hard hit was a weak dribbler to 2B with ZERO chance to sneak thru. Would that really be possible for .042 than 2014's BABIP?

Posted by dahsdebater on 10/27/2016 4:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 4:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/27/2016 3:58:00 PM (view original):
Seems to me that a statnerd would have mentioned BABIP. His walk rate and K rate were down. But his BABIP was down 36 pts from career average. So he put more balls in play and got less hits. I don't it's common for that to happen to a player and stay that way for the next 7 years. In Wrigley. So, if you saw it coming, you're a goddam genius. Any MLB team would be happy to pay you millions to get them that infor before doling out a big contract.

I think I heard that his swing is completely ****** and he isnt hitting the ball hard. Hitter's BABIPs are a lot more skill related than pitchers, so a low BABIP isn't a guarantee of bad luck.

Hard-hit rate was identical to 2014.

Well, there you go. No idea why he sucked so hard this year.

It looks like it's mostly just swing mechanics, but so much is wrong at the same time that it's something he'll need to tear down and rebuild over the offseason. Hands start too low, he's off-balance on many swings and falling off slightly towards the 1st base side (which in turn is creating too much head and eye movement), he's not turning his wrists over and leveling the bat through the zone. On one slow-motion replay during the Giants series, you could see his left hand was completely underneath the bat handle at contact, when it should be turning over. He's basically flailing with his arms on many swings. It's hard to watch. And these are just obvious things. I can't imagine what else is wrong that a trained eye can catch.

That is one way to shut Mike up

Ya gotta do what ya gotta do.

Did I hurt your feelings? Where's your team in Doubleday?

Posted by skunk206 on 10/27/2016 11:42:00 PM (view original):
It looks like it's mostly just swing mechanics, but so much is wrong at the same time that it's something he'll need to tear down and rebuild over the offseason. Hands start too low, he's off-balance on many swings and falling off slightly towards the 1st base side (which in turn is creating too much head and eye movement), he's not turning his wrists over and leveling the bat through the zone. On one slow-motion replay during the Giants series, you could see his left hand was completely underneath the bat handle at contact, when it should be turning over. He's basically flailing with his arms on many swings. It's hard to watch. And these are just obvious things. I can't imagine what else is wrong that a trained eye can catch.

Um...he shouldn't be rolling over before/during contact.

Have you sent your ticket yet about Doubleday, jtpops?

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 2:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by d_rock97 on 10/27/2016 2:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 11:45:00 AM (view original):
Haha, you guys are both stupid.

A signing can be bad, regardless of team success. I'm sure the Cubs are both a) stoked to be in the WS and b) wishing they had used that money differently.

But, jtpsops, you act like everyone should have seen this Heyward collapse coming. Up until this year he was a great defensive outfielder with a slightly above average bat (117 OPS+ in 2016) and was a free agent heading into his age 26 year. He even received MVP votes last year. That's the profile of a player that is worth an investment. It just didn't work out this time (at least not yet).

EDIT: Though I would not have offered him $200m+.

I know I'm behind, mostly because this argument turned into something really idiotic. But yes, I saw this coming, anyone that isn't a Cubs fan saw this coming, and Theo shoulda saw this coming.

Really? Based on what? Heyward was a 26 year old free agent with a career 114 OPS+. That's not exactly Hall of Fame level, but there are only 60 players in the history of baseball who OPS+ at least 114 with over 3000 PA at age 25.

There was no reason to believe his triple slash would go from:

293/359/439

to

230/306/325

Yes, but you're only looking at his previous year. What about the years before? His rookie year I still believe was his only good year. He walked a bunch and ended up with a .393 OBP.

For some reason he stopped drawing walks and for the next 4 years, he had a .258/.340/.422 line. A 109 OPS+

He then had a fluke year on a contract year and even then, he only had an OPS+ of 117

So who coulda predicted he'd bat .230/.306/.325? Nobody, but you couldn't expect more than a .260 BA, maybe a .330 OBP. And thank god for that Rightfield defense. That's why we're paying him $180 mil for a below average-average hitter.

Posted by d_rock97 on 10/28/2016 1:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 2:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by d_rock97 on 10/27/2016 2:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 10/27/2016 11:45:00 AM (view original):
Haha, you guys are both stupid.

A signing can be bad, regardless of team success. I'm sure the Cubs are both a) stoked to be in the WS and b) wishing they had used that money differently.

But, jtpsops, you act like everyone should have seen this Heyward collapse coming. Up until this year he was a great defensive outfielder with a slightly above average bat (117 OPS+ in 2016) and was a free agent heading into his age 26 year. He even received MVP votes last year. That's the profile of a player that is worth an investment. It just didn't work out this time (at least not yet).

EDIT: Though I would not have offered him $200m+.

I know I'm behind, mostly because this argument turned into something really idiotic. But yes, I saw this coming, anyone that isn't a Cubs fan saw this coming, and Theo shoulda saw this coming.

Really? Based on what? Heyward was a 26 year old free agent with a career 114 OPS+. That's not exactly Hall of Fame level, but there are only 60 players in the history of baseball who OPS+ at least 114 with over 3000 PA at age 25.

There was no reason to believe his triple slash would go from:

293/359/439

to

230/306/325

Yes, but you're only looking at his previous year. What about the years before? His rookie year I still believe was his only good year. He walked a bunch and ended up with a .393 OBP.

For some reason he stopped drawing walks and for the next 4 years, he had a .258/.340/.422 line. A 109 OPS+

He then had a fluke year on a contract year and even then, he only had an OPS+ of 117

So who coulda predicted he'd bat .230/.306/.325? Nobody, but you couldn't expect more than a .260 BA, maybe a .330 OBP. And thank god for that Rightfield defense. That's why we're paying him $180 mil for a below average-average hitter.

He had a career 114 OPS+ prior to this year.

You can't just throw out two of his best years and say, "see, he sucks."

His offensive stats throughout his career really haven't been all that impressive. You could argue that Wrigley is a hitters park and they were banking on plus year, but IMO, he's never been a big offensive contributor. Certainly not worthy of the contract they gave him.